DrumBeat: October 31, 2008


Pickens' grassroots energy push may get mowed

HOUSTON (Reuters) - The ambitious campaigns by energy billionaires T. Boone Pickens and Chesapeake Energy Corp's Aubrey McClendon to wean the United States off foreign oil and toward natural gas and wind power may fall victim to crashing energy prices and the global credit crisis.

As part of his plan, has Pickens argued for an overhaul of the nation's power grid, while Chesapeake Chief Executive Officer McClendon wants the nation's fleet of vehicles to run on compressed natural gas rather than gasoline and diesel fuel. Both ventures would cost hundreds of billions to implement.

The energy sector has been socked by worries that the financial crisis could cause a worldwide slowdown that would cut into energy demand. Since reaching a peak over $147 per barrel in July, crude oil futures have fallen more than 50 percent.

"Presumably, a lot of capital would have to be raised to move these things forward, and that looks to be extremely difficult in these current conditions," said Richard Murray, director of the University of Houston Center for Public Policy.

Libya 'ready to host Russian naval base'

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) - Libya is willing to host a Russian naval base as a means of security against any possible U.S. attack, a Russian business daily said on Friday.


Petrobras, Cuba to Explore for Oil in the Straits of Florida

(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Cuba's state-run petroleum company have signed an $8 million agreement to explore for oil off the communist island's coastline about 100 miles from Key West, Florida.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed the agreement with his Cuban counterpart, Raul Castro, during a ceremony today in Havana in which Petrobras CEO Jose Sergio Gabrielli also participated.


American Electric Says Cook Reactor May Be Shut Months by Fire

(Bloomberg) -- American Electric Power Co., the biggest U.S. producer of electricity from coal, said its Cook 1 nuclear reactor in Michigan may be shut more than 10 months after damage from sudden vibration and a fire on Sept. 20.

``The potential for being back online late in the first quarter or early in the second is high, but the potential for being offline through the second half of 2009 is also a possibility,'' Chief Executive Officer Michael Morris said today on a conference call with investors to discuss third-quarter financial results. A repair schedule will be set in November.


Peak Oil: Are Oil Prices Destined to Rise Again?

Big oil as a whole needs oil prices of about $82 a barrel next year to fund their plans for new investment in oil exploration and production, Credit Suisse says in a new report. Right now, the consensus forecast of about $75 oil means overall, oil companies will suspend some marginal projects, as Shell has already announced with Canadian tar sands.

If oil stays around $60 a barrel, the funding shortfall for Big Oil will increase to more than $70 billion, CSFB says, as oil companies mothball a range of tricky new projects. That represents about 20% of planned capital expenditure for big oil companies in 2009.

Not everybody would be affected equally. ExxonMobil can weather oil prices at $50 a barrel, the bank says, while big Chinese oil companies are praying oil returns to record levels north of $140.


BP Seeks Gasoline as Coryton Refinery Disruption Cuts Supplies

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, sought gasoline supplies after a disruption last week at Petroplus Holdings AG's U.K. Coryton refinery cut fuel output.

BP is working with Petroplus to source fuel ``while the refinery comes back online,'' Mark Salt, a BP spokesman, said today by telephone from Milton Keynes, England. Georgina Clark, a Coryton-based Petroplus spokeswoman, referred Bloomberg News to the company's headquarters in Zug, Switzerland, where a call wasn't immediately returned.

Fuel shortages have been reported in parts of the East Anglia region, east of London, because of delays in deliveries to filling stations, Petrol Retailers Association Director Ray Holloway said by telephone, without specifying the extent of the shortfall.


Ecuador says will terminate Repsol oil contract

QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuador will terminate an extraction contract with Spain's Repsol after they failed to agree to switch to a deal more favorable to the government, Oil Minister Derlis Palacios said on Friday.

Left-wing President Rafael Correa has promised more state control over the country's natural resources and wants oil companies to transfer to new service contracts that guarantee the government more oil revenue.

"The government has decided to end its working relationship with Repsol," Palacios told reporters.


T. Boone Pickens liquidates energy equity hedge fund

Hedge fund operator and oil prognosticator T. Boone Pickens liquidated one of his hedge funds last month as the stock markets plunged.

The Dallas billionaire converted his energy equity fund to cash and offered investors the opportunity to withdraw their money early.

The fund started with $2 billion and could be down to around $400 million to $500 million after withdrawals, according to someone familiar with the fund.

The fund was down 60 percent this year after heady gains in previous years.


Booming Persian Gulf gets market reality check

Abdullah Hajeri led a march on the Emir’s palace in Kuwait, demanding the oil-rich nation’s ruler stop stocks from plunging. Adnan Mohammed Saleh, down the Persian Gulf coast in Dubai, said he wants more government protection from the global financial crisis.

“Every day the market is crashing,” said Saleh, a 42-year- old trader, staring dumbfounded as company names scrolled across the Dubai Stock Exchange’s outdoor ticker in red.

The region’s rulers are under pressure from citizens to shore up investors, not just banks, as they try to fend off what may be the worst economic crisis since December 1998, when oil at $10.35 a barrel forced them to slash spending. Crude prices have fallen 50 percent from a record $147.27 in July, and stock indexes in Dubai and Saudi Arabia are down by as much this year.

Gulf economies are more susceptible to financial turmoil than in the past because of their greater dependency on international expertise, investment and tourists to diversify away from oil. While Dubai, home to the world’s tallest building and the man-made Palm Island, is considered most at risk, no part of the Persian Gulf will go untouched.


Edwin Black: The Plan

I’ve given up on energy independence as a near-term goal. Disingenuous politicians, rapacious corporations, paralyzed government and a sleepwalking media will keep our world addicted to oil as long as possible, trumpeting the tiny incremental store-front progress that means little in the bigger picture. The Plan is about nothing as distant as energy independence, the ravages of global warming, or doing the right fuzzy wuzzy thing environmentally. The Plan deals with a “clear and present danger” that exists right this very moment… one that could paralyze western society in the coming days, months or years. The Plan is about an oil crisis caused by an interruption of our oil supply. America is not prepared for it. Our allies are. And we are not even discussing it. The Republicans are not. The Democrats are not. The Governors are not. The White House is not.


IEA cites gains from energy efficiency

Developing countries could save hundreds of billions of dollars by investing in energy efficiency rather than focusing on energy production, a new report has found.

To achieve a 22 per cent increase in energy availability in developing countries by 2020 would cost about $2,000bn, according to the International Energy Agency.

But McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the consultancy, has found that the same end could be achieved for $90bn a year by focusing on energy efficiency improvements with positive returns.


Ford bets on new pickup, rehires workers

At a time when many automakers are cutting workers, Ford plans to bring back 1,000 employees to a truck plant in Dearborn, Mich., because it expects growing consumer demand for its new F-150 pickup truck, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Ford believes there is pent-up demand in the marketplace for their new pickup, especially among truck customers who need the vehicle for their job, according to the Journal.


Czech Republic seeks direct oil deliveries from Russia

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) - The Czech Republic is ready to sign contracts for oil deliveries from Russia without intermediaries, the country's industry and trade minister said on Friday.

Russia has been reducing oil supplies to the Czech Republic over the past four months. The chairman of state oil giant Rosneft, Igor Sechin, earlier said the decline was due to a lack of direct contracts between Russian suppliers and Czech customers.


Kazakhs to get more profit from Kashagan oil field

ALMATY, Kazakhstan (AP) -- Kazakhstan signed a revised oil deal Friday that boosts the profits the Central Asian nation will get from an international consortium developing the giant Kashagan oil field.

Under the agreement, state energy company KazMunaiGas raises its share in the project to 16.8 percent - equal to that of the largest stakeholders - from an earlier 8.33 percent stake.


Nonessential staff evacuated from North Sea oil rig after reports of spill

LONDON (AP) _ The British coast guard says workers have been evacuated from a North Sea oil rig after a reports of a spill.

The Maritime and Coast Guard Agency says 56 nonessential staff have been airlifted off the Heather Alpha rig, about 60 miles (100 kilometers) east of the Shetland Islands. Thirty-four people remain on board.


Russia `Not Frightened' by Oil at $40 a Barrel, Kudrin Says

(Bloomberg) -- Russia, the world's biggest energy exporter, isn't worried if slowing global demand pushes oil prices as low as $40 a barrel, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.

``We aren't afraid of oil at $50 a barrel or at $40 a barrel,'' Kudrin told lawmakers today in comments broadcast by state channel Vesti-24. Social payments to teachers, doctors and pensioners would be made on time, he said. ``This is not 1998.''


Iran cuts oil production by 199,000 barrels a day

Iran will cut its crude oil production by 199,000 barrels a day from November 1, the country's oil minister was quoted as saying Friday.

The minister, Gholam Hossein Nozari, said the production decrease is in line with an OPEC decision last week to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day in response to a sharp fall in oil prices, according to the official IRNA news agency.

Nozari said that OPEC may hold another urgent meeting if crude prices don't rebound.


Sleepless in Tehran

I’ve always been dubious about Barack Obama’s offer to negotiate with Iran — not because I didn’t believe that it was the right strategy, but because I didn’t believe we had enough leverage to succeed. And negotiating in the Middle East without leverage is like playing baseball without a bat.

Well, if Obama does win the presidency, my gut tells me that he’s going to get a chance to negotiate with the Iranians — with a bat in his hand.


Jordan: Fuel prices down again

AMMAN - The government on Thursday issued a decision lowering prices of fuel derivatives by 12.8 per cent for gasoline 90, 13.3 per cent for gasoline 95 and 13.2 per cent for diesel and kerosene.

...Earlier in the month, the government announced it would modify the frequency of fuel pricing updates to be issued every fortnight, with a view to shorten it to a week. Since February, the changes were made on a monthly basis.


‘Homes are no longer an asset: they’re a liability’

THESE are bad times for Camden borrowers, big or small.

In the past fortnight, lenders have pulled out from two of the biggest developments in the borough – the £2billion King’s Cross railway lands.

And other banks are calling in their own debts, in the form of mortgage repossessions, threatening the homes of an increasing number of Camden householders.


Now, $17 billion in US-backed energy bargains

The really big news is this: There's NO cap on the solar systems eligible for the 30% federal tax credit for the next eight years.

The old cap of $6,667 on solar purchases covered solar panels but was too little to pay for ancillary systems. Now that Congress has squashed the cap on "qualified" solar energy purchases, the entire works, including solar panels, storage devices and power conditioning systems will all be eligible for the 30% federal tax credit -- both residential and commercial solar power.

We're looking at a $325 billion investment at least in the US solar industry. This is beyond huge.


Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply

The headlong rush to create electric cars for green-minded consumers may come with a significant economic and environmental cost.

Lithium ion batteries--the same used in electronic gadgets and laptops--have become the preferred battery type for plug-in hybrids and electric cars now starting to come to market.

That swelling demand has some industry observers concerned that there will be a shortage of the metal lithium, the material used to make the batteries.

"You can solve the transportation problem but end up creating an equally vexing commodity problem," said Matthew Nordan, president of emerging technology consulting firm Lux Research. "It's a big concern."


Follow Cuba's emissions standard

Castro proves that equal societies perform measurably better on environmental goals.


Sustenance for sustainability

Scientists who seek intensely interdisciplinary study could be the beneficiaries of increasing interest in the emerging field of sustainability research, with new university programmes offering novel opportunities. Portland State University in Oregon and Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, are the most recent entrants to the field. They follow the example set by institutions such as the School of Sustainability at Arizona State University in Tempe.


California: Water deliveries slated to plunge to 15 percent of requests

The state on Thursday announced plans to cut water allocations to cities and farms to the second lowest level since it began making deliveries in 1962, which local growers said could push farmland out of production and boost already soaring grocery prices higher.


Guardians of the past uncover green lessons for the present

Studying the systems of country estates, which were often self-supporting until the industrial revolution, has triggered modern versions, backed by new technology and energy-saving equipment.

"We need to relearn the old wisdom of self-sufficiency and sustainability," said Maddy Jago, chair of the Yorkshire and Humber Historic Environment Forum, which is restoring the Dales hydroelectric plant, last used in 1946. Two Archimedes screws - historically used for pumping water upwards - will act as turbines to produce enough power for 100 local homes. "This project alone will help the future of an important historic building, and contribute to reducing greenhouse gases and reliance on fossil fuel."


Crisis dents Brazil's dreams of oil bonanza

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Plummeting crude prices and the evaporation of global credit seem certain to delay development of huge oil reserves off Brazil's coast, which the government had hoped would solve many of the country's ills. Just two months ago, with the price of oil at around $120 a barrel, Brazil was brimming with confidence over the potential 50-80 billion barrels of oil, with newspapers running cover stories and editorials on the issue daily.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who called the oil a "gift from God," advocated taking greater a cut for the government to drive Brazil to developed-country status. Analysts said this would also boost support for his chosen successor in 2010.

But the financial crisis has delayed plans by the government and state-controlled oil company Petrobras, which needs to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to extract the 7-km (4.5-mile) deep oil from beneath a thick layer of salt below the ocean floor."


Falling fuel prices change outlook again

I was leafing through the pile of strewn magazines I call a living room the other day and happened upon an unread June 9 edition of Maclean's magazine. The cover story is "Life At $200 A Barrel" and, according to Maclean's, you won't be able to eat, travel or live as you do now. "Say goodbye to the age of plenty." Details on page 45. Said page includes admonishments from Jeff Rubin, chief economist with CIBC World Markets, calling for oil to hit US$200 a barrel by 2012. Page 45 goes on to say that other analysts speculate of "oil at US$250, even US$300 a barrel."

As I write this, a barrel of oil costs about US$63, which has OPEC scrambling like a freshman at his first boy-girl sock-hop. The body that supposedly rules the oil market can't decide whether to have one or two major production chops to prop up the plummeting price. The price of gasoline, meanwhile is below $1-a-litre here in the Great White Frozen North and the sub-US$3-a-gallon is making a comeback south of the border.

All of this means that the wisdom we have come to see as accepted may prove just as illusory as ever-escalating house prices and financially stable stock prices. It also means that virtually every auto manufacturer's carefully crafted plan just went in the dumper.


Global meltdown to have a negative impact on food security

Food security usually becomes the casualty in the event of any crisis, be it financial or political. It is not unusual for the recent global financial crisis to invite concerns from ogranisations like FAO and other food policy groups.

The global meltdown in the financial and equity markets follows hard on the heels of soaring food price and energy crisis caused primarily on account of intensified bio-fuel programme. The global commodity prices, though still ruling high, has marked a dip due to good harvest in the current season. According to the latest issue of FAO’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, global grain production this year is forecast to increase 4.9% to a record 2,232 million tonne. However, some 36 countries are still in need of external assistance as a result of crop failures, conflict or insecurity or continuing local high prices, the report noted.


Pemex Lowers Output Estimate by 3.6% on Storms

(Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state- owned energy company, lowered its forecast for daily production this year by 3.6 percent after hurricanes and stormy weather interrupted output.

Pemex, as the Mexico City-based oil company is known, said in a report today that production will be between 2.7 million and 2.8 million barrels per day. The company had forecast daily production of 2.8 million barrels in July and began the year with an estimate of 3.1 million.


Pemex refining margin falls further to negative US$1.90/b

Mexican state oil company Pemex's refining margin fell to negative US$1.90/b in the third quarter of 2008 compared to a US$4.50/b positive margin in 3Q07, company CFO Esteban Levín said in a webcast.


US Aug Crude Imports Highest Since Sep '07; Nigeria Gains

NEW YORK -- U.S. crude oil imports in August averaged 10.284 million barrels a day, the most in any month since September 2007, as flows from Nigeria recovered, government data published Thurday show.


Trick or treat: Numbskull frights, impish delights await the unsuspecting

No Cobalt for you! Just as countless car dealerships are stuck with SUVs on their lots as gas prices surge, so too are the nation's car rental firms, prompting many travelers to be hit with the dreaded "involuntary upgrade." So even if you've reserved a frugal Ford Focus, you could easily end up with a behemoth truck at the counter.


Croatian PM: Gas Jobs Excluded from INA

ZAGREB, CROATIA – The gas business must be excluded from Ina, Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader said, adding that the sale or exchange of shares of the Ina Croatian oil company had to be indefinitely postponed considering the financial and energy crisis in the world.


Revenue spikes on record hydro exports

Canadian electricity exports hit record levels this summer and are expected to be strong heading into the winter as economic hard times put a damper on domestic demand.

The National Energy Board said yesterday in its winter energy outlook that exports in July were particularly high, driven by trends in Eastern Canada, and surpassed the previous year's exports by 20 per cent.

"The combination of a strong loonie in the first half of 2008 and struggling energy-intensive industries, such as automotive and pulp and paper, have contributed to declining electric load in Eastern Canada, while the combination of strong precipitation and increasing installed capacity have provided for ample domestic electricity supply," the agency said.


Tajiks Fear Another Cold Winter Without Heat Or Electricity

Hanifa says she and her husband have spent all their savings to purchase enough coal and wood to keep their three-room apartment warm this winter.

"As soon as we get our October salary, we’ll buy a wood-burning stove, and then our preparation for the winter will be complete," says the schoolteacher in the northern Tajik town of Khujand.

Hanifa’s apartment block is connected to a centralized heating system, but the system has literally been paralyzed since the early 1990s.

"Everybody wants to get a stove, and coal and wood," she says. "After last year’s experiences, people are very concerned. We had a meeting at school today, and our director said next winter will be even worse, so we have to install stoves in the classrooms. No one believes that we are going to have electricity and that our homes will be heated."


Wanted: A Climate Bailout

What a difference an emergency makes. Scare people enough and $700 billion can materialize almost overnight. The White House can repudiate its core economic philosophy--government should leave markets alone--within hours. Congress, where spending bills sometimes wait years to reach the floor, can pass one of the costliest laws in its history within days. Even the endlessly fickle media can provide 24/7 news coverage, making the emergency the topic on everyone's mind.


Solar Bubbles

Here’s an audacious bet: Cheap plastic balloons with solar cells inside can solve the world’s energy problem.


New Anxiety Grips Russia’s Economy

MOSCOW — At the start of the global financial crisis, Russian authorities insisted they had ample cash reserves to weather any storm. But as sorrow has succeeded sorrow — plummeting oil prices, a 70 percent descent in stock markets here, a global credit crisis and a slow-motion bank run on this country’s private banks — Russia has had to spend its reserves faster than anybody imagined.

On Aug. 8, reserves peaked at just under $600 billion, the third-largest in the world. By this week, they had fallen to $484 billion, as money flew out of government vaults to support the ruble, prop up the banking system and bail out the businesses of the rich Russians known as oligarchs.

This week’s fall — $31 billion — was the steepest so far. With no end to the global troubles in sight and a worldwide recession likely, which could further reduce oil prices, the question is: How long can Moscow keep this up before its reserves grow thin?

Dark pictures are easy to paint. If oil prices continue to fall, the rising expectations that Russians have had for the last several years — the most prosperous in generations — will be foiled. Zero growth would pull the rug from under the hope for a middle-class life for millions, shrinking their horizons back to cramped apartments and garden plots. Already, Russian tour agencies have defaulted on payments to air travel companies — canceling, for some Russians, foreign travel that has come to be prized.


Russia: New cars stuck in limbo as crisis begins to bite

As the credit crisis spreads, car dealers are turning back deliveries of new vehicles. Hundreds of unsold cars line the road to Moscow as Renault Russia claims it has nowhere to put them. Truck drivers are threatening to block the road if the situation is not resolved.

“The company has not provided anywhere for us to live - nothing. We live in our cabs like dogs in the kennel,” said one of the drivers.

...Car sales in Russia have fallen by more than 50% in October, leaving car lots full to bursting.


Iran feels economic pain as oil prices fall

TEHRAN, Iran – Three weeks ago, a hard-line cleric close to Iran's president gloated publicly that the world financial crisis was God's punishment on the United States. The laughter, however, was short-lived.

Iran plunged this week into a bitter storm of political recrimination, largely directed at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as officials and ordinary Iranians realized with shock that the Islamic republic faces a severe economic crisis of its own.

The reason: As oil prices plunge because of the global slowdown, Iran is caught in a classic crunch. Ahmadinejad's government failed to save enough of the billions in oil windfall it earned during the good years to now cushion the bad.


Iraq plans to cut 2009 budget by $13 billion

BAGHDAD – Iraq plans to cut its 2009 draft budget to $67 billion in light of falling world oil prices, finance ministry officials said.


Crude Oil Is Poised for Record Monthly Drop as Demand Declines

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell in New York, poised for its biggest monthly drop since trading began in 1983, on concern that the decline in the U.S. economy will curb fuel demand in the world's largest energy user.

Oil retreated, taking this month's decline to 37 percent, after the U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday that gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter at the biggest annual pace since 2001. Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K., Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Japanese unit, will cut its crude processing by 7 percent during the fourth quarter on falling domestic demand.


Shift to cleared trade could unblock oil markets

LONDON (Reuters) - Exchange-style clearing offers a way forward for the multi-billion dollar over-the-counter market in oil derivatives that has seized up because of the credit crisis.

Volumes of over-the-counter (OTC) trade slumped in September after the crisis in the banking sector made participants nervous about counterparty credit risk.

"The physical oil market is still operating normally but the paper market is experiencing problems," said Ian Taylor, Chief Executive of independent oil trading firm Vitol.

"OTC trades have gone down dramatically during this economic crisis and as traders exit from commodities, volatility increases," he said at this week's Oil & Money conference in London.


Credit crisis to spur futures market oversight

"The credit crisis has only strengthened the resolve of many people to go back and look very hard at this energy speculation issue," said Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland. "Even though they're two different issues, it's the same cast of characters," he added.


Nigeria to trim oil exports by 5 percent due OPEC cuts

LONDON (Reuters) - Nigeria will reduce crude oil export volumes by 5 percent in November and December due to OPEC's production cut, its state oil firm said on Thursday.

Nigeria joins the United Arab Emirates, which announced export cuts after the group's emergency meeting last week.


Independence Hub setting records in energy production

Among the world records set by Independence Project are it is the world’s deepest producing platform, the world’s deepest export line and the world’s deepest subsea production tree, and the world’s deepest flowline installation.

“Ten fields and 16 wells tie back to the hub, so each one of those wells is producing natural gas from 8,000 to 9,000 feet below the surface of the ocean,” Christiansen said. “You have to go another 6,000 feet or so below that to where the natural gas is actually located.”


West African pirates kidnap French oilmen

YAOUNDE (AFP) – Heavily-armed pirates swarmed aboard an oil industry support vessel working off the coast of Cameroon and kidnapped 10 crew members, including six Frenchmen, the French foreign ministry said Friday.


What does cheap oil mean for investors?

"Investment in alternative energy is becoming less attractive," says Bob Parker, vice-chairman of CSFB Asset Management on Bloomberg. Many analysts expect oil majors such as BP and Shell to slash investment in "hard to exploit" locations, such as Canada's oil-rich tar sands, says The Wall Street Journal's Keith Johnson. This is despite Canada's sands being home to "the biggest crude reserve outside Saudi Arabia". Meanwhile, two of Canada's biggest "tar-sands-to-crude" producers, Suncor and Petro-Canada, are already scaling back capital expenditure – most recently postponing spending on the "upgraders" that turn tar-like bitumen into high-quality crude oil.


Promises, Promises: Chasing an elusive pledge

WASHINGTON – It will be 35 years next week since President Richard Nixon, responding to an Arab oil embargo, vowed to make the United States energy independent — and do it in seven years. America is still waiting.

Now as Barack Obama and John McCain vie to become the next president, a promise of U.S. energy independence again has become a rallying cry on the campaign trail.

Is it possible, or even desirable? Many energy experts say it's not. People disagree on what energy independence means — zero energy imports, or something less? And even if the United States were energy independent, would it be insulated from global oil price shocks, with oil priced in a global marketplace? Again, energy experts say don't count on it.

What the presidents said about energy

President Bush and the six presidents before him have all called for reductions in the country's reliance on foreign oil, some promising energy independence that has yet to be achieved.

What they said...


Jim Brown: Feast or Famine

I hope readers see where this is going longer-term. Lower prices are shrinking development, which will lead to much higher prices later as global demand continues to grow. It is a vicious cycle and most analysts don't see the impending crisis 2-3 years from now.


China ties up Russia's crude - again

MOSCOW - After years of on-off negotiations and recriminations between Beijing, Moscow and Tokyo, Russia's state pipeline company Transneft agreed this week to complete construction of a pipeline to deliver crude oil between Skovorodino, in southeastern Siberia, and Daqing, the oilfield and refinery hub in northeast Heilongjiang, in China.


British firm strikes oil in Russia, may lose license

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) - A British company has discovered a large oil field in Russia but may lose the development rights as the oil find is classified as strategic by Russian law, a business daily said on Friday.


StatoilHydro strikes gas in Barents Sea

OSLO, Norway (AP) -- Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro ASA said Friday that it had struck natural gas near its Snoehvit offshore field in the Barents Sea.

The company estimated the size of the Arctic find at 2-14 billion cubic meters (70-495 billion cubic feet) of recoverable natural gas.


Australia: Infrastructure spending set to increase

The threat of anthropogenic global warming is likely to require significant spending on new infrastructure, even if the scale and nature of that investment remains unclear at present. The notion of “peak oil” (a progressive decline in the world’s maximum sustainable production of oil and a reciprocal increase in petroleum prices) could leave Australia with a hefty bill to develop alternative transport fuels and associated infrastructure.


Stranded oil spurs an electric America with more renewables

Lately, I've been reading a series of good books from scholars who are citing obscure mineral depletion research by the U.S. Department of Energy, the International Energy Agency, and other geo-science agencies across the globe.


Canada to seek continent-wide approach to climate change

OTTAWA (AFP) – Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Thursday called for a North America-wide plan to curb CO2 emissions linked to warming, while jumbling his new cabinet's economic and environmental duties.

"We want to work with the Americans on regulatory systems relating to greenhouse gas emissions in order that we can work toward the same goals," said Harper.

"We want to work with the next US administration and we hope that there will be a continental approach in the future," he told reporters.


Car-crazy Germany plans tax relief for 'green' automobiles

BERLIN (AFP) – The German government said on Thursday it planned to eliminate taxes on new cars with low greenhouse gas emissions for the first two years of ownership, but environmentalists said the scheme would backfire.

"We want to introduce an automobile tax exemption for cars that are particularly clean," Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel told ARD public television.


Britons dying for green burials

LONDON (AFP) – UK residents are increasingly choosing "green" burial plots as their final resting place for ecological reasons and as space in more formal cemeteries fills up, experts say.

Whether in the shade of an oak or in the middle of a flowery meadow, more and more people are planning for a "natural" funeral as they plan their final journey.


Man-made climate change seen in Antarctica, Arctic

OSLO (Reuters) - Both Antarctica and the Arctic are getting less icy because of global warming, scientists said on Thursday in a study that extends evidence of man-made climate change to every continent.

Detection of a human cause of warming at both ends of the earth also strengthens a need to understand ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland that would raise world sea levels by about 70 meters (230 ft) if they all melted, they said.

"We're able for the first time to directly attribute warming in both the Arctic and the Antarctic to human influences," said Nathan Gillett of England's University of East Anglia of a study he led with colleagues in the United States, Britain and Japan.

The mortgage flood continues:

Here’s a shocker: almost half of Nevada homeowners with a mortgage owe more to the bank than their homes are worth.

Here’s another: If you add in the homeowners like them in California, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Michigan, together they account for nearly 60 percent of all homeowners who are “underwater” on their mortgages.

Nationwide, almost one out of every five homeowners with a mortgage owes more to their lender than their properties are worth. But if you subtract those states, the rate drops to about one in 10, according to a report released Friday by First American CoreLogic.

Nationwide, about 70% of homes have mortgages. Analyst Roubini is upbeat as usual:

By the time the housing market hits bottom, prices may be down 40 percent from the top, leaving 40 percent of homeowners underwater, according to Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University.

But the most "shocking" part of the above story is this:

Another pessimistic analyst, Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute, said that “unless there’s government intervention on a big scale...we’re really not going to bottom.”

The AEI are these folks (Wikipedia):

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a conservative think tank, founded in 1943. According to the institute its mission is "to defend the principles and improve the institutions of American freedom and democratic capitalism — LIMITED GOVERNMENT, private enterprise, INDIVIDUAL kiberty and RESPONSIBILITY, vigilant and effective defense and foreign policies, political accountability, and open debate."AEI is an independent, non-profit organization. It is supported primarily by grants and contributions from foundations, corporations, and individuals. It is located in Washington, D.C.

AEI has emerged as one of the leading architects of the second Bush administration's public policy.More than twenty AEI alumni and current visiting scholars and fellows have served either in a Bush administration policy post or on one of the government's many panels and commissions.Former United States Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz is a visiting scholar, and Lynne Cheney, wife of Vice President Dick Cheney and former chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities, is a senior fellow.

I guess they're not calling for intervention, but rather just saying it would be nice.

Funny how the libertarian types are yelling for bailouts now.

Last night, Denninger explained why it's not morally wrong to walk away from your mortgage.

And the banner of MSNBC says:

BREAKING NEWS: Consumer spending in September drops by largest amount since 2004

"Funny how the libertarian types are yelling for bailouts now."

Hmm, it would seen not all "libertarian types are yelling for bailouts now."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122541582835686689.html

Its free.

I think we may have a failed new deal: The goverment throwing tons of money at the fake economy, without doing anything about the real economy.

I think people take for granted how much infrastructure (much of it we still depend on) was created during the New Deal. It would be a shame if we have huge Gov spending without actually creating stuff or giving people jobs.

Now would be the perfect time to nationalize and rebuild the electric grid.

We could do a lot of useful infrastructure work (concentrated solar thermal power, electric grid, electric rail, urban renewal etc. with the money we are throwing at Wall Street. And the best part is, after you do this, you have something useful at the end.

Well if there one thing this administration has shown itself as, it's that it picks appointees terribly. So it should come as no surprise that the high level appointees are failing to do the right thing, even if given fairly flexible financial tools by congress. Of those who are a little more competent, they seem to have an idealogical handicap -- When pressed by Waxman, Greenspan a few weeks ago said the crisis made him notice some problems with his neoliberal worldview. Maybe the people who are in charge need to be removed because they are not the right people for the job.

Where's Roosevelt when you need him?

"...it's that it picks appointees terribly."

but isnt that what you would expect from an administration handicapped by a narrow facist adgenda ?

But...there's no proof there is such a thing as a successful new deal.

And we're in a much different position now than we were 70 years ago. We're in debt, and dependent on imports, which will make building infrastructure more difficult.

Not to mention, if we do try it, we will likely be building the wrong infrastructure. The "second stimulus" package is supposed to bail out state budgets, and that will likely be more highways and bridges, not more solar thermal.

But...there's no proof there is such a thing as a successful new deal.

"proof" of success depends entirely on your definition of success.

If the definition of success is providing desparately needed employment and income for millions of impoverished people, providing a social safety net, and building durable infrastructure that is still largely in use 6 decades later, then the New Deal can be "proved" as successful on a factual basis.

If the definition of success is rescuing the market economy and causing a recovery of capital markets, then the success/failure of the New Deal will be debated endlessly depending on ideological stance.

Similarly, economists will debate the most effective measures for economic recovery today, but a bailout that provides durable and appropriate infrastructure will benefit the public, no matter what economic sect proves closest to predicting the future. Starting with constructing passenger rail and installing building insulation would provide unquestioned economic, employment, and environmental benefits.

If the definition of success is providing desparately needed employment and income for millions of impoverished people, providing a social safety net, and building durable infrastructure that is still largely in use 6 decades later, then the New Deal can be "proved" as successful on a factual basis.

But that is not what the bailout was supposed to provide.

If the definition of success is rescuing the market economy and causing a recovery of capital markets, then the success/failure of the New Deal will be debated endlessly depending on ideological stance.

That is what the bailout was supposed to provide.

If the point is to build infrastructure, then build infrastructure.

But I suspect it will be far more difficult these days. It's a global economy now, with global supply chains. I'm not sure we can build anything without the markets. That is, I suspect, how they sold the bailout to our congresscritters.

That is not what the bailout was supposed to provide.

Exactly my point, that is why I think the bailout is wrong-headed. I agree with Greer that the $ should have been put in the real economy. I understand the theory, that if we give a jolt to the fake economy, it will rescue the real economy on it's own. I think this would also work the other way around. Instead of buying up bad paper, I would rather have seen a massive jobs/food stamps/CCC program.

I work in the fake economy (hedge fund) and I know that I don't deserve to be bailed out. I should be allowed to lose my job, and be put to work rebuilding infrastructure. In the long run, I think that's the better way to go.

But at this point, it's the fake economy that's keeping the real economy going.

Projects were halted this summer due to asphalt shortages. While China was fixing up Beijing for the Olympics, there were shortages and hording of steel. We also import materials like silicon and germanium.

How do we keep our access to other people's resources without the fake economy?

I agree that we need some financial sector. I thought Greer didn't give enough credit to how important finance is to 1. Pool capital and 2. Spread risk.

My point is that this needs to be built on top of a solid foundation of real economic production (agriculture, manufacturing, resource extraction/utilization, durable construction). I think if you prop up the parts of the fake economy that are not directly supporting parts of the real economy, you will wind up in the same place in a few years.

There is nothing inherently wrong with Mortgage Backed Securities, and trading them. This can be a way to pool capital and spread risk for construction projects. The problem is when it doesn't rest on a solid foundation (often literaly in this case) of proper valuation and good construction and a sustainable living arrangement, that it all goes to crap.

PS, how do I likify a word? I wanted to say "Greer" and then have that be a link to his article on economic abstraction.

PS, how do I likify a word? I wanted to say "Greer" and then have that be a link to his article on economic abstraction.

It's plain old HTML. If you use Firefox, I recommend the BBCodeXtra extension. Makes creating HTML links and formatting a breeze.

You put a tag in front of it like:
<a href="http://www.inter.net/link/whatever.html">

Then you put your word:
Greer

Then you put a closing tag after it:
</a>

Be sure to put the closing link, otherwise it sorta makes a mess of your post.

how do I link-a-fy a word? ... say "Greer"

More generally, at least in Firefox, if you want to know how someone did something in HTML, you can highlight the region of interest (left mouse button down and then drag) and then right click and pick "View Selection Source".

For example, try it on this HTML coded string: Greer
Now try it on this differently HTML coded string: Greer

See the difference?
The first "Greer" will take you basically nowhere.
If you click on the second hyperlinked "Greer" ... well try it and see what you learn.
Happy HTML trails to you.

... but you don't need the 'rel="nofollow"' stuff, and it will be done automatically ...

I listened to an explanation yesterday about how sick the idea of Credit Default Swaps actually is. The metaphor is that it is like buying fire insurance on your neighbor's house using borrowed money. The only way you could profit from the plan is if your neighbor's house burns down. Basically they have been betting that certain loans will be defaulted but not enough loans to bankrupt the insurer. As long as only a small number of loans were over insured the impact would be small. With insurance on 100s of times the value of the original loan just a few defaults causes the plan to collapse. It is insurance fraud on steroids in which the crooks made sure the law didn't apply to what they were doing.

That's a good analogy - one I have used myself from time to time. The point that you miss is that such a structure gives you a direct incentive to burn down your neighbour's house for profit. Otherwise viable companies will be driven to the wall for exactly this reason, by whatever market mechanisms exist. The immediate personal gains to the perpetrators will more than trump the resulting huge losses to the global economy in the longer term.

The CDS market is approximately $62 trillion and when it melts down due to counterparty risk, as it inevitably will, the impact will be far beyond anything we have seen so far. Deflation never plays out as a slow squeeze.

We build silicon refineries. And steel plants. Not sure about the germanium, we might still need to import that.

"...the most effective measures for economic recovery today,"

how bout: start living within our means ?

that wont be easy or quick(it took a long time for those clever tax cut economic wizzard politicians to get us where we are today.........'bout 26 yrs, by my calculation).

Not to mention, if we do try it, we will likely be building the wrong infrastructure. The "second stimulus" package is supposed to bail out state budgets, and that will likely be more highways and bridges, not more solar thermal.

Neoconservative David Brooks call for just this, more highways and bridges.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/opinion/31brooks.html?th&emc=th

The "second stimulus" package is supposed to bail out state budgets, and that will likely be more highways and bridges, not more solar thermal.

If the second bailout is going to bailout state governments, I would expect it to be spent on retaining state employees, such as teachers and police. At this point many state govs don't have the revenue to continue paying their staffs.

We need a New Deal, but one quite different from that last. Rebuilding our infrastucture as it is, is pointless and impossible. We face a world with diminishing underground resources. Any New Deal has to focus on adapting to that reality. This means rebuilding and repopulating small towns, densifying them, getting rid of cars, communalizing some things (oooh, I used a dirty word), connecting them to agriculture, etc. This means contracting and centralizing the suburbs (possibly multiple centers), going up a few floors, returning land to agriculture, parks, forests, etc. This means getting rid of cars in cities, rebuilding rail transportation to rural areas, etc. And all this needs to done keeping in mind the depletion curve, so that we are somewhat ahead of it. And it should be made certain that one way or another no one starves, has a roof over their head, and basic medical care, and has a role in the restructuring.

That's what ought to be done. And it is entirely practical and possible to do it. But it won't be. It's not profitable. It won't be until profit is no longer the final arbiter of what gets done and what doesn't.

Not this libertarian Leanan. But you already know what a cold-hearted oil patch meanie I am.

"By the time the housing market hits bottom, prices may be down 40 percent from the top...."

If you go by the old banking rule (which was ignored over the last few years) the max house price a family could afford was calculated as being 2.5 times the PRIMARY breadwinner's salary.

Anybody know what the avarage primary breadwinner's salary currently is? Multiply that by 2&1/2 and you should get what the average home price should be.

In the UK the old borrowing rule was provide a 20% deposit then borrow 2.5X prime salary.

Average UK pay is ~£26,000 ... http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/ashe1107.pdf

So if the rules revert to how they were, for an average UK man to be able to buy an average UK house he can afford to pay ~£80,000 ...

and the current average UK house costs? ...

~£161,000 ... http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Sep_2008.pdf

Looks like UK house prices might have to fall a little bit more maybe!

What house price is affordable will depend upon household income of home owners with a mortgage. Household income is wages of usually one or both parents, plus investment income. Its usually only first home buyers who will have a small down-payment, and they will often have lower household income, and little or no investment income. Then again they are not buying the average house. The other factor is the cost of servicing a 80% or 90% mortgage. The 30% in US and 40% in Australia with no mortgage are not directly influenced by house affordability.
If an economy allows 5-10% of mortgages to go into foreclosure, affordability is not relevant its how desperate banks are to foreclose. The banks are finally realizing that they have to stop foreclosures in depressed areas until new buyers can move in and purchase. The cost of owning can be very low if interest rates are low enough and can be financed over a 30 year period.

So for the UK either the average wage earner has to buy a much less than average home, or include a second income, or have saved a bigger down-payment or wait a few weeks for interest rates to drop or house prices will have to drop. That's a lot of maybe's

"The cost of owning can be very low if interest rates are low enough and can be financed over a 30 year period."

hold on just a minute there, dont you mean the monthly payment can be very low ?

Anybody know what the avarage primary breadwinner's salary currently is?

Median would be a better measure than mean (average). Warren Buffett and Bill Gates and the rest of the top 1% really skew things. And usually spend far less than 2.5x on their house.

To follow up on my own comment... in 2006, the median US household income (all sources) was $48,000. 3x is a better estimate of how that should translate into median house price, as the people at the very bottom of the income distribution are probably never going to meet other criteria for a mortgage. Call it $144K for the "expected" median home price. Early in 2008, different sources put the median US house price in the range of $215-230K. In very round numbers, that would suggest house prices nationally needed to fall by a third. Unsurprisingly, this is close to the figure that most experts predict. Bigger declines in the bubble zones -- California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida -- than in other areas, of course.

Location, location, location...

In Detroit, the "average" bread winner just got a big downgrade!
Move, people, move!

That old bankers rule you mentioned doesn't make any sense to me because it doesn't include the interest rate at which the money is borrowed. Clearly one can afford a much more expensive house when the interest rate is 2% than when it's 20%.

The rule I learned was the 24/36 rule. No more than 24% of your income should go toward your house payment, and your total monthly debt payments shouldn't be over 36% of your income. So if the typical mortgage rate is 6.5% on a 30 year loan for example, and the average U.S. household income is $48,000, meaning they could afford a payment of $960 a month, then the average home price should be $165,000.

(I don't recall whether that 24% of monthly income was supposed to include property taxes though. if it does, that would reduce the theoretical average home value to something under $165,000)

I bought my first home with cash when it was cheaper to buy with a mortgage than to rent. Over the years it rose in value. I bought my current home with cash when it was more expensive to buy with a mortgage (+ taxes and fees) than to rent, and it has fallen in value since my purchase. I gain positive cashflow as condo fees incl. utilities + prop. taxes are less than half local rents incl. utilities. People are behind on their condo fees and some units went into foreclosure erasing unpaid condo fee liens. The debtors will have bad credit ratings for seven years if they will not pay back. That will make it more difficult for them to stay out of the clutches of predatory lenders.

Wonder what the median wage in Edwardian Britain was - I don;t recall the average house being priced for the average wage ye someone owned all those houses.
I reckon it's analogous to the dividend on stock versus capital growth. Buying a house for the average man is going to be like stock on margin - the dividend won;t cover it without capital growth or inflation.

Plan to merge GM, Chrysler hits an impasse

NEW YORK/DETROIT - A deal to merge General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC has hit an impasse after the Bush administration ruled out funding for it, three people with direct knowledge of the talks said.


Consumer sentiment takes steepest dive ever

NEW YORK - Consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed on Friday, as the worst financial crisis in generations continued to take its toll.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final reading of its index of confidence plunged to 57.6 in October from 70.3 in September.

...The report said there have previously only been four surveys that posted double-digit declines, "and all resulted from severe economic dislocations, with the losses accelerated by fear and panic."

Apparently, they are nervous about pumping money into something that will result in thousands of lost jobs. (not before November 4, at least).

Such a merger likely would lead to 90,000 job losses at Chrysler and suppliers, according to a report released Thursday.

Yeah, I saw that. There may yet be a bailout after President McBama takes office.

Thar she blew.

Wind power battling economic headwinds

“You can’t get funding,” said David Morris, a wind energy expert and vice president of Institute for Local Self-Reliance in Minneapolis. “The credit crunch is hurting everyone, including the renewables.”

So where is the $700 Billion going?

1. Dividends 2. Bonuses 3. Salaries that would be dropped otherwise 4. Shoring up the capital so these banks don't immediately go under. Anything left after all these important priorities are met is available for backing additional lending.

If additional lending was the primary goal of this type of scheme, the taxpayers' money would have been given to the strongest banks-it was given to the weakest. These banks are too weak for much additional lending.

"..it was given to the weakest."

So, you consider JP Morgan and Wells Fargo to be weak?

Perhaps you missed out on the finer details of the first round of "bailout money."

The UK's Guardian has a decent explanation of the what, where, and why of the first round of bailout money. I suggest you might find it informative.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/15/wall-street-bank-shares

5) Buying up weaker banks who aren't Friends of Hank.

I don't think anyone's even talking about additional lending.

So where is the $700 Billion going?
a)
b)
c)

One of the best/funniest posts ever!

Have you seen Jay's animations? He has a way of putting things in 1 word/image like no other. So the animation for money has "money" and then a big "poof" sign. For "corporations" its a fire breathing cyborg eating natural resources and popping pollution. For "politics" it's just an image of sharks.

Im putting those up here tomorrow. Jay will be on Global Public Interview live at noon EST on Monday. I'll put up details tomorrow

I spoke with a few owners of Mom & Pop stores last week and they all - except for food stores - said that business is down anywhere from 40% to 80% compared to last year (they all said that they had compared numbers with last year's sales). A friend who does repair work says that compared to a year ago, both Lowes & Home Depot are "virtually empty," (which is great for him).

Several local "Mom and Pop" store owners I've talked recently to told me the same story - that their UPS/FeEx guy was getting very worried, asking lots of questions about each store's inventory turnover, etc.

The delivery guys said their loads have dropped dramatically and their trucks are usually "half empty".

Several people I know who fell in love with buying local junk at garage sales and re-selling it on Ebay are now finding they can't give their junk away (literally). And many have one or more rented storage lockers full of "junk."

I didn't think of that, but since you mention it, I know someone who works (in an office) for a delivery company who told me that lately the management there has absolutely no idea what's going on and sends out memos that make no sense. I thought it was some kind of personality issue, but I guess, yeah, there is worry over business volume.

I'm going to have to call someone back tonight and say, "Ah, now I understand what you meant."

Saudi, Kuwait Delay Oil Field Expansion by 5 Years, IOD Reports

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asLUEusfL17g

"Plans to increase output from the offshore field to 350,000 barrels a day from 300,000 barrels....."

wondering how much will this field decline in the next 5 yrs ? the article is kind of short on details.

Folks, latest revised consumption data is in ... it is even better than I had hoped. A major milestone reached and breached.

US oil consumption in August now 11% below 2005 peak

If anybody feels inclined to blame August demand on hurricanes, note that Gustav didn't make landfall until Sept 1. In 2005, Katrina hit on August 29.

In addition, this past August we used only 3.3% more oil than we did in August of 1978 exactly 3 decades before.

Some fun facts comparing August of 30 years ago with the present:

a)There are currently 51% more Americans employed than there were in 1978.
b) The population is 37% larger.
c) The economy is greater by 130%.
d) Inflation is currently lower (5% versus 8%).
e) Unemployment is a tad higher (6.1% versus 5.9%).

We had a few tough years ahead of us back then and, even more so, do we now.

Last spring, I bought a bottle each of Johnny Walker Red, Black and Green. They were to be opened in celebration when US consumption during some month fell 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from its peak in previous years (*). I'm saving my pennies to buy bottles of Gold and Blue to celebrate 40% and 50%.

Well, It's only 10 a.m. but the Red is flowing. (The joys of telecommuting on Fridays!)

So I ask the assembled company here at the Oil Drum: When will I (or my heirs, if they cooperate) get to taste the Black?
I'll bet many of you say, "Never!" May I respectfully disagree. My guess is 2012 at the very latest. Bottoms up! ;-)

But won't the next 9% reduction be much harder?

Maybe, maybe not. As time passes, 2 things are happening and are certain to continue to happen:

a)Better petroleum-saving products.

b) We learn as individuals, households, and communities how to save oil. It becomes part of the culture.

So a decent answer might be... If we had to chop another 9% over the next year, it would be harder. But if it's done over a longer time period -- say 5 years -- the difficulty level might be about the same or even easier.

Since the price of oil has fallen so much, demand may revive a bit. If it does, that calls into question a pet expression peak oilers use: demand destruction. That which has been destroyed does not arise anew.

*There is one additional condition: the unemployment rate must be at or below 12% when the consumption milestone is reached. If it isn't, I'll wait till it falls to that level. I chose 12% as a cut-off because it's just above the peak reached in 1980. Not fun, but not catastrophic for the nation either.

Looks like peak consumption matches peak production. Less is produced, so less is consumed. So, are you trying to say that peak oil of 2005 is now confirmed?

are you taking this reduction in consumption a little out of context?

and i am also a little doubtful about your taste in scotch whiskey.

I think scotch is a sound investment in these days. Though I prefer brandy.

It's, actually, even better. You can probably subtract another 600,000 bpd for increased biodiesel/ethanol usage.

Yes, if we subtract the ethanol, demand is actually down a further 3%. That makes 14% in total.

As per Wed report, 68.2% of oil supplied to USA refineries was imported, which would be close to a record %, so why not add some crack to your boozefest?

One of hazards of scotch in the morning....

I was wrong. We can't actually subtract a full 3% for ethanol when making comparisons with 2005. Instead, only 1/2 of that since we were using almost 300,000 bpd in Aug 2005.

We CAN however, subtract almost the entire amount when comparing with August 1978.

In addition, after subtracting the ethanol, oil consumption in the US was pretty much identical in August 2008 to what it was in August of 1978.

Data: You are going to have a lot of celebrating to do-why don't you chart the historical USA consumption/China consumption then you can really party.

When they get to the point where they are cutting back, the Chinese will have an easier time of it that the US does.

Did you see what they did during the Olympics?

They ordered half the cars off the road for smog-reduction. They could do the same, in the future, to conserve fuel. Instant massive savings.

Since privately owned cars account for only 6% of China's oil consumption (compared to 40% in the US), how is taking cars off the road going to make any meaningful difference?

China uses oil much differently than we do, and they have not been in the "oil culture" long enough to develop the massive waste of oil that we have. Don't count on much pullback from the Chinese anytime soon since very little of what they use is discretionary. The car restrictions for the Olympics were for Beijing only, not the entire country, and now the Beijing government is facing a backlash for maintaining the "one-day-off-the-road" policy for private cars after the Olympics.

e) Unemployment is a tad higher (6.1% versus 5.9%).

I take it these are the 'official' statistics. Just eyeballing the unemployment rate graph over on Shadowstats they estimate ‘real’ unemployment to be over 14% (the actual figures are behind a paywall).

I also gather there is also a time lag between decreased economic activity and increased unemployment due to inertia in the economy. Anyone have any more details on the actual unemployment situation?

I was just wondering about that. I saw this article:

The Economy: Why it feels so bad

They point to employment as the lone bright spot:

But employment doesn't seem like a bright spot to me. An awful lot of the people I know have lost their jobs. Most especially in IT - programmers, web developers, net admins, etc. (Though that might reflect the people I know more than the conditions of the economy.)

With the financial problems there are plenty lay-offs in NY. I guess this probably trickles down directly to the ICT sector.

And they're not even counting me and others like me whose layoffs happened too long ago and are now apparently permanent.
Not that I'm complaining - I'm bragging! Retirement at 50 is good for me and good for our kids who are trying to move up. These have been the best three years of my life so far, with no morning scotches required or desired.

This article may clear things up for you a bit.
http://www.slate.com/id/2202879/

Back in the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recognized that in a changing economy, in which outsourcing, self-employment, and contracting were becoming more commonplace, the traditional methods of measuring unemployment and job growth might not accurately portray the economic situation.

So since 1994, the BLS has been compiling alternative measures of labor underutilization. There are many different varieties of labor underutilization. There are marginally attached workers...There are discouraged workers...There are people who work part-time because they can't find—or their employer can't provide—full-time work. There are people who have left the work force entirely. Neither the unemployment rate nor the payroll jobs figure captures the plight of many of these folks.

In summary the old statistic isnt much use anymore, we should be looking at the U6 figures from the BLS. The U6 was at 11% in September 2008, a mark not seen since 1994, and could easily rise further from there.

Interesting.

I wonder if the idea of a shorter work week will return. It was considered during the Great Depression.

Well, just today at work I completed a survey of my opinions regarding a four-day work week, so my employer sure is considering that. "Energy conservation" wasn't even on the offered list of reasons I might want a four-day week : (

Boy, that's odd. I'd have thought saving gas would be reason #1, despite the recent drop in prices.

My office offers a shorter work week and more flexibility in scheduling than most. It's a remnant of the '70s oil crisis, I believe. Management couldn't afford raises, despite the killer inflation, and so offered a shorter work week and flexible scheduling instead.

I think a lot of people would accept a lower salary in exchange for shorter work hours. I know one person who's in her forties and has never worked a full-time job in her life. She works part-time in California and spends most of her time bumming around on the beach or surfing. No, she's not supported by a spouse or a trust fund. She's a doctor, so a part-time job provides plenty of money for her lifestyle.

I think a lot of people would accept a lower salary in exchange for shorter work hours.

And I think this is completely impractical at a larger societal level for as long as the rigid societal insistence (both on the right and on the left, they give different reasons but espouse the same result) on a quasi-infinite level of fixed costs - especially health "care" and absurdly early retirement - remains in place.

There is simply no economic fairy in the sky. If people wish to live in a more relaxed manner, they will need to decide how much medical care is enough, how much retirement is enough, how much mindlessly complicated tax accounting per employee is enough, and how much of everything else is enough. And - this is the really hard part - they will have to be held to their decisions without recourse when the time comes to pull the plug.

Until notions of political correctness change to permit people to make such decisions - and to permit society to hold them firmly to their decisions when the consequences arrive - we as a society really need to demand mercilessly that nearly everyone should work as hard and long as they possibly can. In practice, of course, this is not a huge problem except where the ultra-deluxe luxury fringe benefits of government service or the Detroit automobile industry come into play. In the real world, only stars - specialty doctors, TV actors, etc. - can generally afford to work part time, since part-time pay per hour is usually far below the full-time rate, as it must be to allow for the astronomical fixed costs. And in the real world, only stars can afford to retire at age 45-ish and contribute nothing while demanding everything for another 40 years, in the manner of, say, municipal bus drivers.

I have always thought a better employment stat would be the percentage of the population with full time jobs. The best I could determine is the figure bounces around 40% to 45%.

August still reflects demand destruction from high prices. September and part of October will reflect demand destruction from the effects of the hurricanes. It will be interesting to see what demand does now that oil is cheap again. There is some evidence in the weekly numbers that demand is rebounding from a post-hurricane low. There is, of course, the small matter of the economic meltdown, which is just starting to pick up steam.

Even so, the US is now a sideshow to the rest of the world. I expect US demand to shrink, even if the rest of the world begins to recover. You can only run an economy on financial smoke and mirrors and military spending for so long. The US GDP is hugely inflated on account of the credit binge of the past few decades. It has a lot of shrinking to do to bring itself in line with its proper place in the world.

Although gasoline demand is down from the same week in 2007, it is picking up a bit with lower prices (according to Mastercard):

Data compiled by MasterCard Advisors, covering both credit and cash sales of gasoline, had been showing a strong decline of gasoline consumption in early October, when prices were still high. For the weeks ending Oct. 3 and Oct. 10, for example, gasoline sales were down 9.5 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively, compared with the same weeks in 2007.

But a MasterCard Advisors report released Tuesday showed that in the last two weeks, with pump prices falling, consumption of gasoline was down only 6.4 percent in each week compared with the same weeks of 2007.

If we catch on that the US controls the price of oil now owing to its ability to set world spare capacity through controling demand, you'll crack that Black Label very soon. We need about a 25% cut in US consumption to get back to a 5 million barrel per day spare capacity which would get us back to $20/barrel oil. That is the right price to have for making our transition off of oil. So, hope we come to understand our market power.

Chris

I think I saw on your blog that the EROEI of Concentrated Solar Thermal is 10.6 - is this correct?

The figure 10.6 comes from a table at the World Nuclear Association (WNA). That is given without references there but it mentions Held et al. 1997. At this link, there seems to be a version of the table: http://www.greatchange.org/bb-thermochemical-WNA_energy_analysis_of_powe...
with this reference: "Held C. et al 1977, Energy analysis of nuclear power plants and their fuel cycle, IAEA proceedings." Note that the date does not agree with the table. WNA work is very sloppy, which is part of the point of that blog entry.

I've come across an estimate for solar thermal around 30 (page 4). http://www.coloradocleanenergy.org/documents/solar/ASES_nevada_spring200...
but there are some math errors there as pointed out by BradF. The blog has the corrections.
http://mdsolar.blogspot.com/2008/01/eroie.html

Chris

So, hope we come to understand our market power.

If we all stop eating, the price of food will drop too.

You first. I'll catch up after Thanksgiving dinner.

....get us back to $20/barrel oil. That is the right price to have for making our transition off of oil.

Geez dude, at that price nobody will be talking about moving away from oil except Colin Campbell.

I think we may need oil near $100 to keep the conversation (and the conversion) alive.

So, I'm hoping OPEC grows a pair of wontons and actually cuts back. Good for solar, too.

The solar etf is in the tank:

That is not what I mean. If we conserve enough, we can cut the price of oil. But, we can't keep the price down without transitioning off of oil. We have to continue to cut our consumption beyond mere conservation. It is better to do this as part of a strategy to get off of oil because we will be getting off of oil no matter what. But, the low price can't encourage us to get back to using oil because that price will disappear as soon as we forget our purpose.

Chris

I wonder if the modest increase in energy consumption in the US since the 70s is real or just an artifact of the accounting system you are using.

If the US has increased its imports of manufactured goods with high embodied energy, from countries like China, this energy does not show up in your accounts and gives the false illusion of an economy with a lower energy intensity.

While this would show a reduction in US energy usage, it does show as a global decrease nor does it leave the US less vulnerable to a decrease in global oil available.

Hands up those thinking of putting serious money into long term oil futures?

Not me. I simply don't trust the markets any more.

"I simply don't trust the markets any more."

That is exactly how I feel - no confidence whatsoever.

As soon as the Fed and Paulson started grasping at straws like short selling, that was it. They can and will change any rules at any time.

Mr. T-Bone Pickens appears to be thinking the same way - liquidate now, before the shareholders liquidate your hedgefund for you, AND before the incompetent criminals in power close the markets and rape and pillage the last of the bag holders.

"Hands up those thinking of putting serious money into long term oil futures"

Is this a stick-up?

not futures per se, but reserves can be had real cheap on bay street, not so much on wall street.

I seriously question whether the futures market will exist next year for anything (not just oil). There is just to much chaos, greed and corruption in the system. Ask again in 6 months, after all the hedge funds, insurance companies and banks go belly up, or are nationalized.

There has always been too "much chaos, greed and corruption" in the futures market. I think hedge funds are toast--which is all right; we got along fine without hedge funds for the past two hundred years before they began. Insurance companies and banks and pension funds will be bailed out. The Treasury and the Fed, working together, have an indefinitely large number of buckets of money. Get ready for U.S. government deficits in the two to three trillion dollar range for next year and the year after. The amount that the Fed can lend is limited only by the amount of Treasury securities, and we're going to see a huge increase in the issuance of new Treasury securities. Don't worry, somebody will always buy them; the Fed is the buyer of last resort. Also, if we're going to have deflation, then Treasury securities will be an excellent investment.

Don't worry. Be happy.

Be happy is my trademark. I'm really good at it. But my daughter just turned 3 and my son will turn 6 in December(lovely kids, easy to be happy!).

I do worry. They are already pretty much used to the comforts of everyday life, and too young to teach them the predicament we're in. Fortunately they are not spoiled too much, just a bit ;-)

And off course I get this comparetative advantage hanging around TOD.

Don: You already know all this, but I think it needs to be said out loud. What you are describing seems to lead to us to a place almost as bad as what they are trying to fix.

Possible results can include: horrific inflation, a down grade of U.S. treasuries, default by the U.S. government, extraordinarily high interest on the national debt,...........

As for someone always buying treasuries, well, the world is pretty pissed off at us right now, and they are busy spending their reserves to save there own skin. Doesn't leave a lot left over to buy treasuries.

I'm probably misquoting, but I read this somewhere: “If inflation is so wonderful, then why isn't Zimbabwe a paradise?”

I think we're headed back to double-digit inflation, similar to what we had in 1980. Whether we see hyperinflation is anybody's guess, but note that with only a 10% rate of inflation the value of a dollar falls to one-half of what it was in only 7.2 years.

The Fed can keep the interest rate on long Treasury bonds down simply by buying up most of them; supply and demand at work.

Note that Zimbabwe would be a hell hole even without inflation. Plenty of countries (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, for example) have had major inflations without a complete economic collapse. We can always knock a zero or two off the dollar, and probably we will, sooner or later.

NB: I don't advocate inflation, but I think we're headed for it, and perhaps sooner rather than later. It didn't take long in the 1970s for inflation to get fired up, even as employment and real GDP decreased. In other words, I expect a decline in real GDP along with a probable increase in nominal GDP.

Sailorman said: "The amount that the Fed can lend is limited only by the amount of Treasury securities, and we're ... the Fed is the [treasuries] buyer of last resort."

- sounds like a closed loop to me. If that's true, hyperinflation is assured.

I don't know about hyperinflation; maybe we go that route, maybe we won't. I do not believe that hyperinflation is inevitable. But sooner or later (and my guess is withing three years) we'll see inflation up at double-digit rates while real GDP continues to decline.

If unemployment goes over thirty percent, then I think the government would hyperinflate on purpose, just to get rid of old debt and stimulate the economy. Thus we could have deflation and depression before we see increasing inflation. And if the government inflates enough, then the value of the national debt could be reduced to the price of a postage stamp, as happened in 1923 in Germany. Of course the national debt will never be paid off, but it could be repudiated entirely just by inflating enough. This motive for hyperinflation increases as the national debt becomes three or four times as much as nominal GDP.

Once again, I am not advocating inflation. But sooner or later we will have much higher inflation rates than we've had during the past year.

Don, hasn't Japan recently tried massive government spending and "quantitative easing"? Nontheless they have drifted in and out of deflation for over a decade now. It seems to me that if people and businesses can't or won't borrow money, a credit-based economy is going to deflate regardless what the Fed and Treasury do.

Errol in Miami

Japan did try expansionary fiscal and monetary policy--but they were too little and too late; thus their deflation dragged on for a decade or more. Also, Japan should have let its zombie banks fail, but they did not do so. Let Japan be a lesson for the U.S. Now that we need to fight deflation, we need an all out war, with humongous deficits in the multitrillion dollar range plus all out "printing" of money by the Fed.

If unemployment goes over thirty percent.
say what? 30%? are you serious? sorry, i've been listening to phil valentine in nashville tn, at wtn.com, he has a co-person that challenges him all the time with that statement. what? are you serious? funny. sorry about that.

by the way, i am glad to see you back. i really enjoy (as do many) your insights. thanks for coming back! we missed you!

Thank you for your kind remarks.

As a result of declining net oil exports I expect to see a Greater Depression in the U.S. with unemployment ranging betwee 25% and 40% for many years. My suggested policy response is a negative income tax plus massive public works spending on neclear and renewable energy.

I think your 25% to 40/% figures are plausible.

I'm a 55yo retrainee in HVAC. I'm really have trouble imagining a customer base that is in those straits.

It is an aspect that one should consider under a job search, though.

If forty percent are unemployed, that still leaves sixty percent who ARE employed. People will always need new furnaces and have their old furnaces and air conditioners fixed. I think you'll be fine for the next fifteen years, and with some luck you'll be able to work past seventy. Not long ago I had a seventy-eight year old plumber work on my pipes, and he did quick and excellent work. People will borrow from their relatives to keep their houses comfortable.

Well yes, in the end all of us are dead.

However the futures market has a real place as a forum for hedging risk for the likes of airlines, etc. Its unlikely it will disappear just because of chaos, it has a value.

And if you have money in banks is it any less safe in futures?

Risk vs Reward
In a bank your money stands still relative to inflation and your bank may go under. You might get most of the money back, but nothing is certain in a major crash.

In oil futures you stand a good chance of 2-3x return in a few years (assume we're right here) and there is some chance that oil will stay low in value (unlikely) or the counterparty can't honour (possible).

There is a whole lot of room between business as usual, and collapsing back to the stone age.

As stock markets around the world have shown, when the market isn't giving the results the government wants, then it gets shut down, or the rules get changed. I would not be surprised if commodities markets were strictly limited to producers and users of the products being traded. Leaving the average Joe forced to sell what he has, at a reduced price. Also isn't it in the nature of peak oil, that someone will have to declare force majeure?

These are unusual times and that means unusual things happen.

Like Lincoln suspending habeas corpus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habeas_corpus_in_the_United_States#Suspensi...

Or FDR confiscating gold.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

Is it the end of the world? I don't think so. But any complex system can fail, and that failure can be in unusual and unimagined ways. The nature of a “panic” is that people do stupid self destructive things, and my opinion is that we are about to experience quite a bit of that kind of thing (failure and panic).

As for where my money is? 99% in treasuries and couple of months of expense money in actual FRNs. My bank account only has enough to pay the bills of the moment.

Agreed - I don't think the futures exchanges will disappear. The CBOT has been around since the mid-1800s. Countries like China would gladly host futures exchanges if they shut down here.

I'm thinking hard about pulling the trigger today. I'm confused though:

USO is down, but DBO is up. What's going on with that?

I never had any money to invest, so I don't now about it. However I read here and there and everywhere you should get back in when the "blood is running in the streets".

My advise is to stick to that, literarely.

Futures are too scary, I'm just thankful I decided against them. Today on general principles I decided to pick up a couple of Dec2011 100-130 crude call spreads @$5000 each.

Total gamble, but I won't lose more than the 10k I have upfront. Max value if oil goes up or the dollar goes down sufficiently is 60k. Yes, I worry about options being declared illegal in the meanwhile, just spreading my risk in different directions. Kids, don't try this at home.

cheers

Here is why Brazil's hopes for oil production are dented, and why Canada's tar sands production is not being expanded (reported several days ago).

As oil depletion progresses, more and more oil is used to produce oil from the most difficult sources. When the amount of oil used to produce a barrel of oil equals the amount of oil produced, it is pointless to continue oil production.

In addition to the oil used on site to produce and refine oil, energy is used in all of the processes for the machinery, equipment, and personnel used in the extraction, transport, and refining processes.

For deepwater oil production, this would include all of the ships, platforms, steel piping (many kilometers of pipes on-site and to onshore locations), and their employees, including the energy used in making the hundreds of thousands of parts, the energy used in the factories that make the parts, the energy used in transportation of all of the parts and employees, as well as the energy that is consumed when employees and stockholders spend their salaries or dividends on goods and services (food, automobiles, yachts, airplanes, recreation vehicles, vacations, consumer purchases, etc.). Because there are a number of confounded energy input variables, it is difficult to measure all of this consumption of energy, but it is an economic reality that is shown in corporate decisions about the profitability of deepwater oil projects.

For deepwater, heavy oil, tar sands, and extraction where special techniques are used, the point at which energy consumed in production equals the energy produced will be reached rapidly. For this reason, some oil that is classified as recoverable (for example deepwater oil, heavy oil, and the Bakken formation) may never be recovered.

It's called Peak Oil, and the end it nearer than many think.

Cheers,

Cliff Wirth

"As oil depletion progresses, more and more oil is used to produce oil from the most difficult sources. When the amount of oil used to produce a barrel of oil equals the amount of oil produced, it is pointless to continue oil production."

You are correct from an energetic point of view. However if it makes someone a lot of money it may not be true. Say you hedge and buy plenty of $ 63 oil now, and use it 1 year from now to produce, say, $ 120 oil, as a company you will be going ahead, even if EROEI is 1.

Edit: I suppose societies breaking point is much earlier then when EROEI approaches 1, but that's another discussion. The above may hold true for individual oil plays though.

But if you buy $63 dollar oil now, why use it to produce at EROEI of 1? Why not just sell it at $120? EROEI production at 1 still seems pointless.

The only answer I can come up with is that some people keep their jobs (longer).
But that's really the only one.

I'm not an oil man. For the rest please see ROCKMANs' comment below.

I'll go one farther...

Free government hand outs. If you seam to be doing something about the problem, you could be in the short list for the next round of bailouts!

EROIE only has to be >1 if you are using the oil for energy - for all other uses (and there are many!) it doesn't matter, all that matters is that the oil is profitable and affordable. Oil production is going to continue loooooong into the future, it just won't be used for fuel.

Chris -- some of your points are quit valid. But I'll address just the exploration and production side. It really takes very little energy to drill, complete and produce in any environment even the Deep Water compared to the total costs. This does include ignoring the energy usage to build the existing rigs, pipelines, etc. But these are sunk costs that exist whether new wells are drilled or not. I'll offer a specific example for which I have details: an unconventional NG well in E TX. Diesel used: 100,000 gallons (used mostly to run the electric generators for the electric powered drilling rig. That’s about $500,000 for a well that would cost $6 – 8 million by the time it’s completed. If fuel cost doubled it would seriously impact economic decisions. Deep Water requires much more fuel as you describe. But the total daily ops cost for such projects run $800,000 to a million PER DAY. Again, fuel costs will represent a small fraction.

But as I’ve written before, even if one could come up with a credible EROEI for a Deep Water project that were less then 1 it wouldn’t have any impact on the decision to go forward with the investment. Oil patch economics are straight forward: $’s in vs. $’s out. If the profit is there, after adjustments for risks, the wells will be drilled. I’ve run oil patch economics for over 30 years and no one has ever been concerned, rightly or wrongly, about EROEI. Which is not to say that decreasing EROEI wouldn’t have an effect on economic analysis but it’s not part of the evaluation process.

Canadian tar sand development: that’s a whole different game. Energy usage is a huge factor in that process. But still, I would imagine those folks look at the economics just as we do: $’s in vs. $’s out.

Here is why Brazil's hopes for oil production are dented, and why Canada's tar sands production is not being expanded (reported several days ago).

As oil depletion progresses, more and more oil is used to produce oil from the most difficult sources. When the amount of oil used to produce a barrel of oil equals the amount of oil produced, it is pointless to continue oil production.

Cliff,

As far as the oilsands go, I think that you have misunderstood what is happening.

AFIK, project delays are due to two causes:

  • capital markets are a mess - it is not a good time to be financing big projects
  • the US economy is contracting at the moment - people aren't going to commit to increased production until they are sure that they can sell it

There are several processes for getting oil from the sands. The SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) process uses oil only during initial setup and drilling. Operationally, it uses NG to produce steam and electicity for pumps and machinery.

Some experimental processes (THAI, Syngas, Geothermal) don't even use NG for extraction.

The concept that "more and more oil is used to produce oil" is basically wrong WRT the oilsands.

You need to read my post again carefully. More and more oil is used in extracting the energy from tar sands -- not from the energy for heating tar sands, but from everything else. The reason the capital markets are a mess is Peak Oil, which means less oil in the future. Capital is oil. There is less capital, because there will be less oil. My Peak Oil report has 32,000 hits. Many of them are Wall Street readers as I've been on Wall Street blogs and know for a fact that I'm read at the WSJ. So, most real investors know we are screwed.

"""the US economy is contracting at the moment - people aren't going to commit to increased production until they are sure that they can sell it""" ANSWER: they can't sell it because it uses so much energy to produce (natural gas/oil for gigantic scrapers/diggers/trucks/jet fuel to bring in workers/the oil to MANUFACTURE all of this stuff and transport it all around the world) -- just to get some oil of this stinking crap that pollutes the air and water for hundreds of kilometers. And then it uses a lot of energy to turn this stinking stuff into something. Better to make asphalt roads out of this stinky stuff.

calgarydude,

I think that Cliff was being somewhat rhetorical with that paragraph about using oil to produce oil. If it were as simple as Cliff stated, which is, oil used to produce oil, then the situation he describes would be an obvious no-brainer to everyone. Cliff then goes on to extend the analogy to include all energy and there's where the EROEI problem comes in as there is much more energy required to produce the resource than just that at the mine or well site. And, with tar sands, using natural gas or coal for thermal energy or to make electricity represents BTU's which might just as well have been derived from petroleum. Using coal, which is a solid or natural gas is a way to "upgrade" those energy sources to another, more desirable source of BTU's in liquid form. The trouble is, those alternative sources also have important uses and also are going to eventually be limited by depletion.

Natural gas is a rather important fuel for home heating in many parts of the U.S., where it can be burned in extremely efficient furnaces for thermal energy, resulting in little local pollution and minimal CO2 emissions. Using natural gas to produce oil from tar sands implies less will be available in future for these other users. Thus, natural gas may not be economically reasonable in future as a source of BTU's to upgrade tar sands to liquid.

We can only hope that the other techniques which you mention for upgrading tar sands will prove to be workable. However, there's still the problem of climate change, which I think could lead governments to require drastic restrictions on CO2 emissions. But, that would appear to be another story, isn't it?

E. Swanson

Chemotherapy!

It just came to me this morning. Chemotherapy is used to kill the cancer before it kills you. The theory is that the cancer cells will all die before all of your healthy cells.

The United States dominance of the world is "the body". The EU, Russia, and China (financially speaking) are the "cancer". The cancer was growing so big as to maybe overtake the body, so Chemotherapy. Crash the status quo so bad that maybe the cancer (emerging economic threats) die first, and you heal "the body" after the treatments are over.

Just a thought, this is way out of my league, but I thought I would share anyway.

Shane

An intereting idea Shane. Unfortunately, the majority of fatal cancer patients who don't succumb to the disease actually die from the chemo...and usually after a rather unpleasent period.

But life is full of risks. This would be just one more very serious game of Chicken.

Pick your poison.

Chemotherapy is designed to have the most effect on the fastest growing cells, i.e. cancer cells. But that is also why you loose your hair; that's the next fastest growing cell. Then your blood cells. And so on.

So indeed you're trying to get rid of the cancer before you get rid of the healthy cells.

Unfortunately chemotherapy may not in all cases be effective against the cancer, but having severely damaged the hosts' health, which may cause it to get an infection easier, having less resistance against that, and die even sooner.

The best chance one has is to be in relative fit condition(for a cancer patient) before chemotherapy starts, so the body can take more.

So if you apply your analogy to the US being the body, I'm afraid its' general condition before applying chemotherapy was not very encouraging.

Ronald Reagan used the "chemo" idea successfully to break the Soviet Union - and it almost looks like it's happening again.

Yep, it's some crisis we got ourselves here: Working peoples' salaries under pressure; massive payouts to the very richest; a strengthening dollar; and huge pressure on Russia, Iran, and to a lesser extent Venezuela.

I see it as more like strip poker: By the time the Soviets were naked and freezing, we were down to our shorts, so to speak. This time around with Russia there may be no winners.

Some of the counterparties are fighting back - I howled when I saw the Goldman and JPMorgan cutthroats complaining about market manipulation and opacity when they got caught in the VW short squeeze. I guess the Germans aren't going to take it lying down.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE49R6OH20081028
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=atQgcbCAlV_s&refer=g...

It's not the fastest growing cells, chemo just kills cells when they divide (or so I was told when a family member had to go for it). So any cell that divides is targeted... the idea being that you'll kill more cancer cells because that's what will divide the most.

But it also does a terrible number on the rest of the body. The digestive track gets hit the hardest because it also needs to replace the cells in the lining daily. Immune system can hardly create new cells before they too get whacked.

Chemo is a mess for many. Not too good for the rest of the body either. The liver gets stressed just cleaning up all the dead cell corpses....

Not good. Try Dr. Dean Ornish's approach first instead.

The best chance one has is to be in relative fit condition(for a cancer patient) before chemotherapy starts, so the body can take more.

So if you apply your analogy to the US being the body, I'm afraid its' general condition before applying chemotherapy was not very encouraging.

Many years ago I had a form of cancer that was over 80% fatal. I beat that cancer for two reasons - (1) I fell into the hands of the leading researcher in that particular field, and (2) I was in superb physical condition before the chemotherapy treatments began.

If the United States is as unfit as a nation as it seems, such a "chemotherapy" approach is likely to destroy the host as well as the disease.

Grayzone, Curious...what cancer did you have? I have had bad experiences with cancer in the family, but I love to hear stories of people that have beat it.

Woah! Good one eastex.

It certainly does look like a planned situation and I'm also certain that those at the top are not getting hurt.

It also explains my nausea.

Cheers!

The theory is that the cancer cells will all die before all of your healthy cells.

Not exactly. It's really the other side of the coin, so to speak:
All cells die at the same time, but the gamble is the heathy cells growth rate will be greater the mutation rate of cancer cells.

That's how my radiologist explained it to me.

Practising medicine....heavy on the (practice) Too bad practice does not make perfect.

Procreation!

It seems to be the only method of sidestepping the natural collapse of death faced by all living things. And procreation is fun, a bonus.

But our culture has no established means of doing so proactively at the societal level. We need some kind of process of cultural sexual intercourse.

The Shipping News Suggests World Economy Is Toast

In the third quarter of 2007, Volvo AB booked 41,970 European orders for new trucks. Guess how many prospective purchases Volvo, the world's second-biggest maker of heavy rigs, received in the third quarter of this year?

Here's a clue. Picture a highway gridlocked by 41,815 abandoned trucks -- because Volvo's order book got destroyed to the tune of 99.63 percent, with customers signing up for just 155 vehicles in the three-month period, the Gothenburg, Sweden-based company said last week.

The pathogen that has fatally infected swathes of the banking industry is now contaminating non-financial companies. ``We're heading toward the sharpest downturn I've ever seen in Europe,'' said Chief Executive Officer Leif Johansson.

Additionally, if any of you are following the Baltic Dry Goods Shipping index, then you know that for about 2 months now international maritime shipments of dry goods cargoes have essentially ceased. Foodstuffs are languishing at ports, awaiting shipment overseas but cannot move because the entire letters of credit system appears to have collapsed. China's entire manufacturing sector, from the coast to over 1000 miles inland, is shutting down.

Remember, this wonderful JIT economy has 5-7 days of food and other essential consumables on the store shelves. Have fun getting yours when 99% of the rest of the population has the same idea.

All those missing trucks will probably contribute to a smaller oil demand. Thank goodness oil demand is falling, we're all so much better off now that peak oil is a myth and the oil price bubble has been revealed for what it is! /sarcanol

But a double edged sword as always Gwydion. It could also represent thousands of truck drivers with no jobs as well as folks in the truck plants. And then there's the merchants who won't need as many trucks because they're cutting back on business. And then there's those employees who will be loosing their jobs. All this at a time when various gov't social safety nets are suffering from reduced tax income.

As nice as a drop in consumption for those of us with incomes to take advantage of the situation it does hae a dark side. You can't escape the relationship: big decreases in oil usage equates to big cut backs in productivity which equates to lower man power needs which equates to lower incomes and higher unemployment which equates to more suffering especially by the poorest in society. By definition the wealthy will always have what they need. But if the bottom half of society can't work then the pain is concentrated in their part of the world.

I was being sarcastic in that post! As you said, what I was thinking of is the reduced oil price right now and the reduced demand -- this news is evidence that the reductions in demand that we're seeing aren't necessarily voluntary ones because the price of oil is high, it's because the price of oil was high which probably contributed the collapse of the housing and financial sectors.

I agree that there is a double-edged sword here, after I posted that I was thinking more along the lines of reduced number of trucks = reduced carbon emissions, so that's actually a benefit along with lower gas prices. But it would have been much better if we had attempted to reduce our carbon emissions by choice rather than having it forced on us by a depressed economy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081031.RIMF31/TPStory...
--------------------
Emerging markets feel the crunch
Global authorities doing all they can to renew creditor confidence and improve trade

OTTAWA -- The stories about stagnation in global trade had been circulating quietly for a while: exporters having trouble finding financing to ship their goods from emerging markets; bankers refusing to recognize the letters of credit that exporters have traditionally used; ships having to slash their freight rates to attract business.

The whispers crescendoed to a dull roar last week. A Thai shipping executive told a Singapore audience that credit was frozen. Moody's Economy.com and a report from Maersk Broker said goods were piling up at ports, pending financing.
-------------------------------

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/30/dry-bulk-shipping-biz-logistics-cx_ra_1...
-----------------------
Dry-Bulk Shipping Slips Underwater

With credit drying up, asset values falling and loan defaults surfacing, dry-bulk shippers now bear an eerie resemblance to the subprime mortgage market...
-----------------------

That's an amazing Volvo statistic.

I am very worried about reliance on JIT systems too. However, I can't sort out what the BDI fall means materially in terms of reduction of actual volume shipped. Of course there must be some decline, but it could be quite small and still have a huge price effect because pricing is on the margin. I have never seen anyone cite real numbers about any actual decline in the number of ships on the move or their capacity rate.

Thus far, I am still able to order bulk rice at the local store and it comes from Washington State, and some products might be imported black beans from China. Are they depleting local stocks of Chinese black beans or are black beans still being shipped?

I have no clue. Somebody...please...this is a cry for help. Inform me.

I've come close to answering my own question.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ajCJCMXomYcc&refer=asia
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- China Shipping Container Lines Co. forecast traffic will decline for the first time in at least four years as the global economic slowdown and a stronger yuan curb demand for Chinese-made toys, electronics and clothing in North America and Europe.

``Traffic will drop at least 10 percent for the full year,'' Zhang Denghui, assistant president of China Shipping (Group) Co., parent of China Shipping Lines, the country's second-largest container line, said in an interview yesterday. ``An even much larger drop is possible, as the full impact of the global economic turmoil is yet to come.''

So, we have a ca. 10% drop forecast from one major Chinese shipping group. Doesn't give us much precision about what has happened thus far, worldwide. But if worldwide shipping is off ca. 10% it is enough to cause the BDI to drop by ca. 90%!

More from the article cited upthread:
"Air freight traffic dropped 7.7 percent in September, according to the latest figures from the International Air Transport Association."

From the same article:
"And because the huge vessels known as capesize ships can't currently charge much more than their daily operating cost of about $6,000 per day, their captains have slowed down to economize on fuel and save money, to about 8.68 knots from 10.33 knots in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

This means that the flow rate of goods is also slowing.

Global trade is at the beginning of a collapse of epic proportions, similar in nature, but much greater in magnitude, to what happened in the 1930s. As we move further into the liquidity trap, access to credit becomes a thing of the past, and we realize how little actual money exists, we will see the global economy seize up like an engine run with the oil light on. Money is the lubricant in the economic engine and we will experience a critical shortage, probably beginning next year.

Our county (Marin) disaster official puts the food supply in the Bay Area at 3 1/2 to 4 days. Fuel is just one day.

For those readers in Wisconsin...

Naomi Klein is speaking at U.W. Madison next Friday evening, Nov 7, at 7:30 in the Humanities Building on Park Street near the Memorial Union.

Watch out for falling asteroids.

http://www.petroleumworld.com/storyt08103101.htm
------------------------
Venezuela: Greatest oil auction on earth
CARACAS Petroleumworld.com, October 31, 2008

On Thursday Venezuela initiated the biggest and most prominent oil auction in the world and the only oil round in last ten years in Venezuela. Venezuela is looking for partners to its oil company to develop the first phase of 1.3 billion extra heavy oil barrels, in an area of 55.314 KM2 on land that with present technology will yield 415 billions of barrels.

..Our present cost in the Faja area for extra heavy oil are just $1 to $1.5 of a dollar for production and our upgrader costa are from $2 to 2.5 dollars, this make it very attractive to potential participants, Ramirez said.
-------------------------

After Chavez stole multi-billion dollar oilfield/upgrader projects from multi-national oil companies based in America and Europe they can claim it only costs a few dollars a barrel to extract and refine heavy oil. He did not have to pay to build the infrastructure used to produce it. Venezuela also stole oil rigs being used to develop projects they purchased in Venezuela from the Venezuelan government. Now Venezuela wants to offer more projects for sale after stealing upgraders and extraction pads, while at the same time criticizing OPEC for pumping too much oil.

It is true the profit margins from developing Orinoco heavy oil have been higher than those from developing Canadian tar sands, but the losses have been very high for those who went to Venezuela to develop the oil industry only to find themselves outgunned by govt. banditos.

I thought people here might be interested in a discussion that has been taking place at TAE. Here's my response to a anonymous TOD poster (his question is in italics):

When/if? eventually, inexorably, falling supply of oil trumps falling demand, does this mean that oil prices will rise again and therefore inflation will rise?

I'm trying to evaluate the relative impact and gradient/timing of inflation due to resource constraints (i.e too much money chasing too few goods) vs the years of recession/depression discussed here.

Rising prices do not constitute inflation. Inflation is an increase in the money supply relative to available goods and services, of which rising prices can be a lagging symptom.

Eventually, as you say, falling oil supply will trump falling demand, but we're nowhere near that point yet. Although IMO we have much further to go in the falling demand path, as purchasing power has vastly further to fall, we will soon start to see the impact on supply, as lower oil prices cause projects to be abandoned as uneconomic. That is the beginning of what will eventually become a supply collapse.

Many high cost projects will not proceed in a capital-scarce environment where oil prices are low. Exploration will grind to a halt for lack of viable financing, and infrastructure such as pipelines will not be built. The financial risks will simply be too high, meaning that we will not be developing the smaller fields that might have cushioned the downslope of Hubbert's curve. This is phase one, where falling demand would still be the dominant factor and developing energy scarcity would be largely masked.

Phase two would involve the impact of much more severe economic dislocation on supply. Here we would see the impact of increased physical risk in addition to financial risk. Among private individuals and small organizations, there will be many aggrieved parties with little to lose who may decide to wantonly destroy infrastructure, and many others bent on piracy for profit. at a state level, there is likely to be a resource grab that will see oil supplies either tied up in bilateral contracts or actively fought over.

IMO this will spell the end of oil as a fungible commodity available on a global market, as its strategic connection to hegemonic power will become much more evident. States will become much more involved in the energy sector, both as a result of private capital fleeing from risk and as a naked power grab.

Initially oil prices fall with demand, but as supply is hit and fungibility disappears, prices may well become very volatile - varying greatly in both space and time. Oil may simply not be available at any price in many places, while in others availability could be sporadic and prices would be very high. In luckier places availability may be maintained, but prices could still fluctuate wildly.

Energy affordability should be less everywhere than it is now though, even if prices are nominally lower in some areas, as purchasing power will be falling faster than price. The prices of essentials such as energy and food should fall less far than most other things however, as a much larger percentage of a much smaller money supply will be chasing them, and thereby lending a measure of price support even in the midst of a liquidity trap.

Ordinary people are destined to be priced out of the market almost entirely at some point, which will have a tremendous impact on societies structurally dependent on cheap energy. Unfortunately, adaptability, other than by pure deprivation, is very low where such dependencies have been created and entrenched.

Eventually, we will transition from a world where oil prices are simultaneously lower but less affordable (ie lower in nominal terms but higher in real terms where the change in the money supply is accounted for) to one where they are much higher (ie higher in nominal terms which would mean going through the roof in real terms). Trying to build economic recovery under such circumstances will be somewhere between extremely difficult and virtually impossible, and when some kind of recovery does eventually emerge - probably from the ashes of a great war - we won't be returning to our complex and energy-intensive societies of the present. Those days are gone permanently, along with the once-in-a-planet's-lifetime energy subsidy upon which they were built.

If higher oil prices were, as has been suggested, the straw that broke the Ponzi's back, will they also trigger a hyperinflationary phase in the near future if the guys at the TOD are accurate in their remaining resource predictions?

I disagree that oil prices were the trigger. Market manias and crashes, which have occurred repeatedly in the past before the age of oil, have their own internal dynamic. Credit hyper-expansions are inherently self-limiting as debt cannot continue to be created ad infinitum. The debt becomes unserviceable and the pyramid of IOUs collapses. The difference this time is that the whole world has been sucked into the largest such Ponzi scheme ever through globalized financial markets and the advent of derivatives (ie leveraged layers of 'financial innovation').

I do think hyperinflation is a distinct probability once the international debt financing model, and thus the power of the bond market, is well and truly broken. We're not there yet though, and even when we do reach that point, attempts to inflate will have to overcome the cash-hoarding mentality that has taken hold due to lack of trust.

And here's a follow-up comment from another reader (in italics), with my reply:

For now demand is dropping more than supply, but this is cementing in Peak Oil, and quite soon, the 'market will always average 10% a year' adherents will find that energy supply limits will preclude any economic rebound in the bud, despite monetary printing.

Agreed. I think oil, and probably gold as well, will bottom early in this deflationary episode, and at substantially higher percentages of their former prices than most other assets.

IMO cheap energy was definitely a driver on the way up (although bubbles also happened before the age of oil, they never reached these heights of socioeconomic complexity), but the way down is more complicated. I wouldn't say peak oil was a driver at the moment, as internal market dynamics can account for the what we are seeing, but agree that the market collapse is casting the effects of peak oil in stone - setting an upper limit on any potential recovery and determining what degree of socioeconomic complexity we could hope to achieve in the future. I expect it to be drastically (and permanently) lower than it is at present.

I think war is a given as the great powers play out the energy endgame. I expect that to have a significant effect on global population, and to put that in context, events such as the WWWI, the Spanish flu and WWII were not extreme enough to do so. I would expect a population reduction at least comparable to Europe during the era of the Black Death, and potentially considerably higher, as biological models of overshoot and collapse would suggest.

Nice analysis, Stoneleigh. What do you think of Deffeyes' recently voiced argument that the $3 trillion extra a year the world has to pay for $100 oil as compared to $20 oil had something important to do with breaking the Ponzi's back? Doesn't $3 trillion represent the difference between modest world economic growth of, say, 3 percent, versus a forced modest contraction of the world economy that had the effect of bringing down the fiscal house of cards?

Stoneleigh---Happy Halloween to you too! (Halloween is over here it's Nov 1) but your mention of the Black Death, the lovely words "overshoot and collapse" etc just was like a ghost popping out from a broom closet!

The war scenario might happen but then again, population reduction might happen more slowly anyway because of lack of food and medicine. If someone doesn't have enough food and then if they get a bad cold and it turns into bronchitis and then pneumonia, then that person will maybe die. A pediatrician here says many children used to die of pneumonia just because they had slightly too little food all the time, so they were weak. I think it wasn't just children but many others too, especially those over 50-60. Just slightly too little food all the time translates into a much higher mortality rate. My daughter and I have gotten bronchitis and avoided pneumonia by taking antibiotics--at least 4 or 5 times these drugs have saved our lives. Without these drugs I guess I might not be here now typing these words actually!

Maybe governments won't be able to get their acts together enough to go to war. With shortages, lack of food and basic medicines maybe they'll just throw up their hands and focus on individual survival....at least we can always hope!

I think this week has been somewhat of an anomaly with things in a bit of a holding pattern until after the elections. I believe we will see some real factors flowing back into the pattern of things after that (DOW to fall and commodities to rise).

RE:Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply

I'd like to point readers to a article published earlier this year: Lithium in Abundance

Just like oil (and any other extracted resource) it isn't the size of the reserves that is the potential problem but an adequate supply rate of the product.

The need for the battery manufacturers to make a profit and the consumers to afford the price has nothing to do with the size of the reserves.

The size of the reserves just tells you the absolute maximum number of batteries that could be made if the consumers could afford to buy them, it tells you nothing about how quickly they can be made.

Well, I still say this pasts weeks 900 point pop on the DOW was no head fake. Thats my story and Iam sticking too it. I seriously doubt (99.999% sure) that the DOW will ever reach 14000 again or the S&P will reach 1500 or the NAS 5000 ever again. Iam firm in my belief that the DOW will in 24 months climb back towards 12000 and then drop again, the S&P will climb also towards 1200 and drop yet again, the NAS will do the best out of the three broader market indices and climb towards 4500 and then drop again.

This slow stutter step fall will mimic alot the fits and starts of the market on its way up, since oil was first found and a market developed for its use.

So a half dozen guys with funny hats get together under a buttonwood tree in lower Manhattan, just off a curb, near a brick wall. These guys start trading and set the points at roughly 12 or 14 and that was around 1898. Looking out my window, thats what I saw. Now we fast forward too 2001, and the downward trend begins. Again Iam just looking out my window. As a bachelor i didnt sprig for drapes, I let the fly specks diffuse the light coming in thru the window glass, still I believe what I saw was accurate. You do what you want with it.

(Note) The button...curb....wall...all still contained in the lexicon. What happened to the funny hats you asked? Embarassment I suppose.

It was a head fake - a sideways counter-trend rally at a relatively low degree of trend. I don't think the downward move from July is over yet, and even when it is that will grant us only a temporary respite. IMO we'll see a fear-driven spike low to below the October 2002 lows before we see a lasting rally, and when I say 'lasting' I mean a couple of months (long enough for people to back to sleep again and to declare the 'deflation scare' over).

Next year, Wall Street will eat Main Street for breakfast. We are still very much closer to a top than to a bottom.

Stoneleigh-- I really like your site TAE and read it every day.

I have a question: how will it look when "Wall St eats Main St. for breakfast"? I guess you mean layoffs? Sorry to be so obtuse, I'm not an econ. major or expert at all, rather the opposite.

Another question---you mentioned in another post that you moved halfway around the world as you made preparations for this financial and economic disaster. From which country to which country?? and why? ( Just curious!)

I have a question: how will it look when "Wall St eats Main St. for breakfast"? I guess you mean layoffs?

I mean margin calls and loans being called in - a real wealth grab from high up the financial food chain, as part of the extinguishing of the excess outstanding claims to real wealth that credit hyper-expansion enabled. Layoffs will also occur of course as result of that wealth grab, as the impact of financial losses spreads to the real economy.

Another question---you mentioned in another post that you moved halfway around the world as you made preparations for this financial and economic disaster. From which country to which country?? and why?

I moved from the UK to Canada because I could build self-sufficiency here in a way that would have been completely impossible over there. Moving from an insanely overvalued region to a moderately overvalued one freed up resources for things such as far more land and renewable energy infrastructure.

First of all, thanks for answering my questions! I feel like as this economic crisis continues we're all getting a crash course in population crash......and the way to tell if you pass the final test is to see how long you can survive!

So people like you and Ilargi and many others, too many to name, but who write here on TOD and author helpful peak oil-related books and such, are truly helping others like me. In my case as I'm the product of a suburban US lifestyle, it is a huge leap to imagine a farming lifestyle, or "producing" anything whatsoever of value, except paperwork, as is the case now in my job.

Perhaps the most vexing question, and the one with the most varied answers among the peak oil professionals, is "where to secure one's precious self" as the crisis unfolds. Kunstler seems to recommend a small walkable town in upstate NY. Dmitri Orlov says keep moving, or possibly try a rural place that hasn't had much capital investment. Greer says move to the edge of a small city for the police protection and access to medical care and food. Others like New Zealand or Oregon.
There isn't a lot of overlap in the recommendations, but there seems to be a little: rural is good, but not too rural, might sum it up. A climate with rain and food growing potential seems to be important.

In my case, there is a mortgage. There is a house (very small). And it is on the edge of a megalopolis, acres and acres of cement skyscrapers just over the horizon. And the situation is not likely to change, although I'm (cautiously) interested in trying a rural cheaper lifestyle and becoming self sufficient, others in the family are emphatically not interested.

We'll keep churning out our paperwork...I get the feeling we're in the category of jobs (education) that will not last but will slowly wither as people with the money to spend on this kind of thing for their children disappear.

On the other hand, we might be the ones who get some of the bailout money, funneled to places with lots of office workers and in the Rolodexes of the central planners....keep the Titanic going as long as possible despite the rent in the hull.

For now the situation is too murky, in your words "chaotic". The people in power don't produce the food (or anything else). The people who produce things don't have any power. Suddenly there is a question of will the flows of energy from the country to the city keep on coming? At some point, they won't obviously. The people who produce food won't care about the worthless money from the city folks and won't exchange valuable produce for it.

Watching this all play out would be fascinating if it weren't all so relevant to one's own existence.

How many cute little Black Cygnets did you overlook to get that forcast?

"How many cute little Black Cygnets"?

I can't be sure about the color of the birds, as the condition they were in when I sat down, was, well, their plumage was removed and they were steaming and had a golden glaze about them. They might well have been black for all I know,or white, I will be sure to ask in advance next time, should the information be of value to you.
I can recall their names though, there being only two, Lunch was ones name and Dinner the other, yes Iam sure their names were Lunch and then Dinner, I recall vividly the chef was quite specific about that.

By George, they could have been black cygnets. They are not allowed to breed in the wild in some places so 'lunch' and 'dinner' are OK.

Awww

http://forums.canadiancontent.net/off-topic/46967-black-cygnets-born-rar...

Can one emagine, anyone at all, the year being, say 1907, and being told, that in a few short decades, war machines would be invented. Machines being manufactured, of terrible destructive capacity. Advances in science and tech that would change the world, render mankind capable of destroying the world and all it contained. Chemicals discovered, explosive divices concocted that could incinerate a million, billions even, in a millisecond. That man would fly with jet engines and wings and travel to space and militarize space around the planet....I could go on, but I believe you get my drift.

How would you have reacted, the public at large reacted?

Ah, but! you say. It happened rather slowly, the frog wasnt brought to a full rolling boil instantaniously.

Neither will this frog soup be boiled instantaniously.

And yes, it tastes just like chicken.
This decline looks alot like the way up, only with less frogs, real frogs I mean, not the human kind.

Ummm.......
You have heard of Jules Verne, right?
Jules Gabriel Verne (February 8, 1828 – March 24, 1905)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jules_Verne

"Verne wrote about space, air, and underwater travel before navigable aircraft and practical submarines were invented, and before any means of space travel had been devised."

Not everyone is a TV zombie, and some people actual are involved in technical development, working on the wonders of tomorrow.

Bitteroldcoot,

I can't really really take your example seriously, c'mon a novelist ! Ha !

Now, Tesla, that is something I can take seriously.

I would note that some things haven't changed much from his day. That is to say, Tesla was undermined because of money. He wanted to build a system of
which the investor couldn't figure out how to meter in order to recoup his money.

Even today in the physic's circles one can read about funding that determines the direction of scientific inquiry – not the significance of the data.

So, there are (manmade)limits.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN...
Rod Dreher: Time for a stiff slug of forced austerity

. . . would it be such a bad thing to emulate the lessons of the Depression generation and learn to live far more frugally than we do? In her must-read new book, Depletion and Abundance: Life on the New Home Front, Sharon Astyk says that we have no choice but to live a radically more simple life – and she shows how. This doesn't mean embracing a freakish level of austerity; it just means learning to want less and to need less. As she writes on her blog:

"In 1945 we used 80 percent less energy per household than we do now. Your parents and grandparents lived that way – they heated the rooms they used most often and closed off the other ones, wore sweaters and walked more than they drove. They took the bus. They ate less meat. They grew Victory gardens and ate food grown near them. They shared with their neighbors more, and they worked together on what was then the greatest challenge facing the world – the rise of fascism. What is most needed isn't a move to the third world – it is a return to a familiar past."

Ms. Astyk was responding to a New York Times article that had implicitly raised questions about the sanity of her and her upstate New York farm family, given their frugal lifestyle. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is trying to restart an economy blown to bits by debt by encouraging Americans drowning in debt to resume spending money that they don't have for things they don't need.

You tell me: Who's crazy here?

Can someone provide a link to said NYT article?

Just Google "astyk site:nytimes.com" - it's not exactly a common name. It may have been discussed around here some days ago.

Link.

See PaulS

A True Story for Halloween

Last fall, my wife and I spent a long weekend in Sedona Arizona. We had never been to the Grand Canyon, so we did a day trip to the South Rim. We had dinner at the El Tovar Hotel, and it was night by the time we left the Canyon.

If you have driven this part of Arizona, you know that it makes West Texas look populated. It was moonless night, with almost no other cars. There were several signs warning of deer, so I was scanning both sides of the road for deer.

My wife asked, after about 20 minutes had passed without seeing another car, if there was anyone else out here. I replied that it was just us and the "Goatman," a mythical half man/half goat. A few minutes later, my wife screamed that there was someone standing in the road. Since I was watching the edges of the road for deer, we might have hit him head on, if she had not seen him.

A tall, gaunt man, with a white beard, wearing a full length trench coat (or more accurately a duster coat), was standing in the middle of the right hand lane. I quickly slowed down, and as we slowly drove around him, he stood completely still, with only his head moving, as he stared fixedly at us. There was no sign of a car, or of nearby habitation. He made no motion of any kind, and he did not appear to be injured.

My wife asked if we should stop. I replied, "Are you f---ing crazy? Haven't you seen the movies?"

In any case, I will not be driving this road at night again.

No sweat WT, that was Charles.

Is Charles a local character?

OOOO, Yeah, that's a good halloween story !

As noted above, it's a also a true story.

Maybe it was a skinwalker!

A homeless tramp.

I don't think you needed to be scared, actually. He sounds like someone who was self-sufficient (no car, walking around!), a person who had maybe lived in the area for years and was off looking for some cactus buds or checking his traps.

He sounds like he might be peak-oil aware (again, no car) and he possibly reads the Oil Drum if he has his alt. energy going to power his laptop!

Perhaps he is reading these very words.

I dunno.

I would hope most people reading this site would not stand in the middle of a highway lane at night, forcing cars to drive around them.

Hello TODers,

http://farmweek.ilfb.org/viewdocument.asp?did=12142&drvid=106&r=0.951626
------------------
Mitigating Risk A Key to Survival in Turbulent Times

..The strategy to store grain and even take physical possession of fertilizer is a big part of managing risk for Rick Rosentreter, grain sales and capital manager for Carlinville-based Illinois Family Farms (ILLFF).

..ILLFF mitigates some of the risk of input purchases by maintaining its own 30,000-gallon anhydrous ammonia facility and it recently completed the construction of a 6,000-ton dry fertilizer facility.
--------------------
Glad to see this rural area moving to building its own version of my speculative 'Federal Reserve Banks of I-NPK'.

Compare to the risks in this next link:

http://www.postbulletin.com/newsmanager/templates/localnews_story.asp?z=...
-------------------
[Rochester MN] Gov. Tim Pawlenty signed an emergency executive order this week that could provide relief to farmers waiting for trucks to deliver diesel fuel, propane and anhydrous ammonia.

..While diesel fuel and propane might be transported faster to the farmers, Chicos said he's not sure there's enough anhydrous ammonia out there to make a big difference.

According to the executive order, farmers' cooperatives and other retail suppliers of anhydrous ammonia cannot store sufficient amounts of these products on location to meet the compacted demand after the harvest season.

..Pagel said there's only a short window to apply the fertilizer -- when harvest is complete and during the narrow period of time after ground temperatures are 50 degrees and before the ground freezes.

"Often the fertilizer isn't available when you need it," Pagel said.
-------------------------
Recall my earlier postings on FF/I-NPK latency problems and seasonal timeslots for Liebscher's Optima: it is not easy for our credit-crisis impaired JIT system to synchronize the global movement of all the required inputs. Example: the movement of sulfur and natgas to make DAP, then to get that moved in a timely fashion to the final acre for fertilization.

This next link discusses more farming risks and supply and price volativity:

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story...
--------------------------
More farmers putting off fertilizer applications

..The majority of farmers responding to a recent Agriculture Online poll indicate they're cutting back fall fertilizer applications by 50% or more...Expense is the main driver for the cutbacks.

.."Nonetheless, fertilizer prices may well decline into spring as competition drives the prices lower," he adds. "Those with a large prepaid inventory could find themselves in a world of hurt. They (retailers) will resist lowering prices while they hold the high-priced inventory, but in the end, they may have to."

But, don't depend on a readily available supply come spring, warns one ag economist. Putting off most or all fertilizer applications until spring does carry risk, but it's widely accepted by most farmers. But, the fertilizer market dynamics may create a tighter supply scenario in the spring.

"Going forward, producers will face the added risk of product or supply availability. With retailers unable to afford financing large inventories of un-priced fertilizer there is no assurance that enough product will be available when demand is high," says Iowa State University (ISU) Extension ag economist Roger Ginder. "If producers do not place an order and price the product well in advance, it may not be available when they need it."

.."For the near term, producers need to be aware that filling their fertilizer needs the coming year may be different than the past. There is less opportunity for producer price shopping when manufacturers require prepayment from the dealer and offer smaller quantities of product to dealers more frequently," Ginder says.
------------------------
Have you hugged your bag of NPK today?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/01/libya-russia-gadafy-united-s...
--------------------
The Russian navy could significantly expand its presence in the Mediterranean after it emerged yesterday that Libya's leader, Muammar Gadafy, has offered Moscow the chance to open a base on its coastline.

.."In line with the Libyan leader's plan, Russia's military presence will become a guarantee of non-aggression from the United States which, despite numerous conciliatory gestures, is not in a hurry to embrace Col Gadafy," the paper said.
------------------------

If Russia does start building a naval base in Libya, that would put more pressure on AFRICOM to likewise build a base somewhere in Africa too. Recall my much earlier speculative postings on Tan-Tan, Morocco.

http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=58538
--------------------
[November 1, 2008] AFRICOM to remain at Stuttgart for now

..Officials stopped short of saying that AFRICOM would be at Stuttgart’s Kelley Barracks on a permanent basis.

..In Stuttgart, AFRICOM officials said the focus now is on building up the new command. Though it was officially activated on Oct. 1, there has been a steady stream of speculation worldwide about where AFRICOM would eventually set up its headquarters. Supposed potential sites have ranged from Charleston, S.C., to Morocco, to other locations in Europe such at Rota, Spain.
----------------------------
IMO, strategic sealane control for transocean trade [especially for phosphate] will be crucial as we go postPeak. Just as it was before fossil fuels. Recall that from an earlier era: the US Marine Hymn includes, "to the shores of Tripoli...".

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/10/081027-congo-gorillas.html
-----------------
Rebels Seize Congo Gorilla Park; Hopes Dim for Apes
----------------
Please see the embedded video.

Hello TODers,

Kudos to this young man for helping to invent a better wheelbarrow [see design photo in link]:

http://www.thenorwester.ca/index.cfm?sid=185607&sc=354
--------------------
Springdale's Mike Rolfe earns national honours

.."We all had to make a project and the project was to design with conscience and make something that will help others in the world," he said. "We won the national competition and best overall."

..His teams project is called the Camel. The design's purpose is to ease life for African women who spend six to eight hours a day transporting water from wells. The Camel is an ingenious device based on the wheelbarrow, but instead of a wheel, it's two barrels that hold the water with a basket perched on top for other things.

"They just roll it back to the village," said Mike. "It removes the physical stress of carrying the water and time stress on the family so they can do other things."
-----------------------------
I hope they can sell them by the millions. Most TODers are already well aware of the iconic photo of poor people balancing heavy loads on their heads. I see bicycles and wheelbarrows as a key need for the postPeak era if we hope to achieve some measure of Optimal Overshoot Decline.