It has put a crimp in my plans for an infinite increase in the price of our fossil fuel resource base. However, I'm still hanging onto those royalty trusts. They continue to send, perhaps a somewhat smaller, check every month.

apocalyptoids ? have doomers moved into a new, more prestegious realm ?

Amazing, these people who live in the past--in a world of yesterday that was largely controlled by the United States and other developed countries. The arrogance, the self-centered myopia is beyond comprehension.

Another person still living in the world of yesterday is the one cited in How U.S. policy made oil go up. Then down.: Mr. Verleger said "The problem is that most of the people doing the analysis failed to really understand the market."

Denailists like these make it very difficult for people, like Gordon Brown, who must live in the real world. The world he lives in is revealed in Brown: Gulf states key to tackling credit crisis

Once upon a time the U.S. had the capital and the Gulf countries had the oil, almost an unlimited sea of oil. In that bygone era, as Argentine economist Raul Prebisch pointed out, there were deep structural inequalities that divided the global economy between the developed and the undeveloped world. Volatile commodity prices and capital investment reinforced first world advantage over third world disadvantage.

But low and behold, a new era has dawned. Now the Gulf countries have both the oil and the capital. That gives genesis to statements like this: "Ultimately, power will transfer from the West to the East. The Middle East understands that they have the whip hand and they need to be wooed," said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, head of research at the Charles Stanley investment firm in London.

In the past, when it was the U.S. that had the capital, and some oil producing country got into financial trouble, the U.S. could cut off credit to make it "scream," as Nixon put it, in order to gain favorable economic or political concessions.

Now that the U.S. has neither capital nor oil, and it is the United States that is in financial trouble, it will be interesting to see if the Gulf countries make the United States "scream."

This statement pretty much says it all: "money will only be forthcoming if regional leaders get more power in any new world economic order."

Yes, we can increase consumption but no infinitely.

So, new seismo-electromegnetic (SEM) phenomenon in hydrocarbon deposits (www.phenemenon-in-oil-accummulation.weebly.com )can increase oil field discoveries in three times every year.

Some of us understood there has been recessionary pressure on the economy since fourth quarter of 2007 and suspected the financial crisis might restrain demand. I now think the U.S. has essentially been in a recession since fourth quarter of 2007 irrespective of the reported GDP statistics.

Will Oil Hit $150 / bbl? post on page 4, BBR, May 11, 2008 (you have to be a logged-in member to access the link)

When I posted this thread, I was considering whether I should set the peak at $150 or $200 by the end of year. I chose $150 because the U.S. is heading into recession which will reduce demand in this country in addition to a rising price causing demand destruction. A recession in the U.S. would likely cause a worldwide recession except in oil exporting countries further reducing demand. I was thinking these factors would prevent a doubling of the price in less than a year.

I think the price of crude oil is currently undershooting and will rise to something between $70 and $100 / barrel where it will plateau for a while. See the price and depletion graph posted somewhere on TOD in support of volatility with overshoot followed by undershoot. With OECD countries outputting crude oil at their maximum rate, OPEC has the power to restrict production to set the price to what they want. I also think the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is a temporary consequence of the financial crisis and will resume declining (causing the price of oil to rise) after the worst part passes, that is, after fourth quarter of 2008. The world will eventually try to come out of recession (or depression) and, as long as we remain dependent, our crude oil consumption will rise until we bump into the global production limit causing the price of crude oil to skyrocket above $150 / barrel. The price will continue to rise until demand destruction (or other related economic maladies) sends it down to a new lower bound and us back into recession/depression. This cycle will continue with an ever declining ceiling for oil production and rising price peaks as long as the policies of politicians and businessmen cling to a dogmatic vision of business-as-usual. Suing OPEC, gas tax holidays, suspending additions to or releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and "drill, drill, drill" will not work. This prediction assumes a major war does not occur within its time frame.

There, I have put my prediction on TOD's servers for all to see. Will I eat crow?