You've talked to Jay so my response is my gut feeling...I don't think self-deception is likely. He could be intellectually wrong and not see the error. However, I haven't seen anyone really poke holes in his position. But, there appears to be an underlying insecurity on his part since his fall-back position on the forums was that "I've studied this more than you."

Finally, his actions appear more in line with someone who has experienced, at least, the beginning stages of enlightenment. Truly enlightened people almost never are on the forefront pushing their ideas. People interested in this might search to see if the Zen parable, The Oxherder, is somewhere on the internet. This is a series of ten pictures outlining the path to enlightenment.

I'm sure Jay would throw up his arms at this. But, what the heck.

Todd

Nate,
Great post!
I found that many of mine understandings of the future came from reading articles on dieoff.org, but I found it hard to recommend it to others as I felt that the understanding of realities were worlds apart. Many people are in for some tough revisions of their world beliefs in the near future.

On trading “lower worth” energy sources with those of higher worth, like oil, is something that in my opinion already is taking place.

Look at China and its growing coal consumption to produce electricity which fuels (or fuelled) their growth in industrial output, generating huge trade surpluses which again is traded to increase imports of energy sources of “greater worth” like…..oil.

One simplistic way to look upon that is that China is now effectively trading indigenous coal for oil imports.

I dunno Nate, I think the connection between electricity generation and oil/gas production is a bit more complex than just saying "we use very little oil in oil production".
When we start building power stations, wind turbines, solar panels, hydro etc and their support networks with electricity then you can say the above.
Until then we are dependant on oil for electricity generation or more precisely the means to gather, construct and maintain the components, even a small amount of oil missing in a vital connection would spell the demise of meaningful oil production.

As you described in a reply above "why was he able to read over 3,000 books on these subjects and connect threads that most people still find opaque"........... Hanson sees the connects a little more clearly than others.

For the record, I have pushed him several times to do a TV or radio interview and he always declined. I think he senses it can't hurt and might help to do so at this point. And in the end it's hard to be happy without a tribe

And your point is noted. What ARE the reasons any of us do anything? Why do I continue to spend time on TOD? It's a complicated answer, and I suspect 50%+ of my motives are unconscious - but a subject for another day nonetheless. As I've said, Jays work allowed me to make broad brush connections that would have taken me years (or decades) on my own. Perhaps the same is true for TOD and its community. Cultural transmission....

Perhaps the best outcome from Jay's videos (and posts on TOD) is to be proven wrong. Then we're one step closer to understanding/accessing the problem. But these types of ideas are difficult to prove wrong, except in hindsight. Therefore are they science? Or religion? The pieces that make up the thesis are based on science, but beyond that I'm not sure. It's clear that the cornucopian crowd thinks that since oil's price has declined that peak oil was a 'hoax'. Nothing could be further from the truth. We are in a much worse position with regards to future energy supplies today than we were a year ago. I noticed Fridays announcement on Platts by Chesapeake that "The US oil and gas exploration-and-production industry will likely take out of service between 300 and 500 drilling rigs in the coming months, as the industry continues to be wracked by the global credit crisis and soft energy commodity prices". That's between 1/4 and 1/3 of our rigs drilling for gas! I suspect similar details will be emerging on the oil side, all the while the ongoing depletion continues at nearly double digit rates, despite infield drilling and tertiary recovery.

In any case, I've poked a lot of holes in Jay's theories over the years, but mostly small ones. I look forward to hearing his interview.