![]() | Better Place - Bringing Electric Vehicles Powered by Renewable Energy | The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: November 5, 2008 | ![]() |
246 comments on A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
246 comments on A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“If kindness and comfort are, as I suspect, the results of an energy surplus, then, as the supply contracts, we could be expected to start fighting once again like cats in a sack.”
—George Monbiot
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
Of course, events are largely unfolding as Jim Kunstler predicted they would, especially in the 2004 video End of Suburbia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM
My 2¢ worth, from 2006:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/19420
Net Oil Exports Revisited
Published Aug 21 2006 by GraphOilogy / Energy Bulletin
by Jeffrey J. Brown
http://www.tumbleweedhouses.com/
Today I saw a guy living out of his pick up truck. It has a cab roof and he parks it outside of the mini-storage unit he rents. So, for ca. $80 per month he can plug his truck into an exterior power outlet, keep his personal belongings sheltered next to him, stay warm and dry, and move on if he must.
Another version of teeny house, but on wheels.
Many of the tiny houses are on wheels ... and many can be parked in a standard parking space.
The smallest of the Tiny Houses obviously are not for everyone, but they are the right size for some people. And of course, that is an important part of a material/energy efficiency revolution ... rather than one-size-fits-all solutions, which always means material and energy use in excess to the needs of most users, solutions tailored to people's needs. For those who wish it, a very small living space can be extraordinarily frugal in terms of ongoing utility costs.
You had better look out. Some places like in Santa Cruz, California our county government lives off of the taxes of home owners. Living in a trailer is not allowed except in a registered mobile home park for which they tax several thousand dollars per year. For the house we are now negotiating to build, (1800 sq. ft, 167 m^3) we will be paying about $67,000 for government fees, permits, tests, and “mitigations”. If we reduced the house to 100 sq. ft, not allowed by county ordinances, our costs would only be reduced to about $45,000. Add to this a tax of $8000 per year on the new property value. My problem is socialism more than energy. My lifestyle, Honda Insight, solar electricity, carpool, etc cost very little. My government however is a economic hog.
"...we will be paying about $67,000 for government fees, permits, tests, and “mitigations”."
something tells me that this is not the entire story, are you building on a toxic dump site, in the middle of a fire prone forrest, in an earthquake or flood zone ?
In Mt. Shasta, Ca. it is $12,000-$15,000, which is not bad for a large house, but a deal breaker for a very small house. The town has some huge expenses in improving the sewer and storm drain systems.
In California, it is virtually impossible to raise property taxes, so new construction fees have to go up astronomically to pay for new infrastructure needs.
Why build when there are so many foreclosed houses on the market??
As I understand it, many of those foreclosed houses are not in very good nick.
Probably cheaper to build a new one, especially if you wanted to fit it with its own power generation, water source and sewage disposal, insulation and the like.
Tom, are you shooting for a LEED gold/platinum house (or the equivalent)? Super-insulated passive solar with PV, solar hot water, etc?
Definitely if you were going to buy that one, even if it went for a song, you'd need someplace to live while fixing it up ("fixing it up" possibly involving starting at the foundation). A Tiny House would do the trick there ... and in that situation, it seems highly unlikely that any local authority faced with that problem would object to someove parking a Tiny House in the yard while they were doing the fixer upper.
Your lifestyle requires roads, sewers, water, communications, hospitals, schools, public safety, to name a few. Have you priced those "socialized" services lately?
Yes, under the "taxpayer revolt" plan in California to starve governments at all levels of funds to provide public services, because failing to provide public services is for some reason supposed to be a good thing, there are obviously going to be governments trying to gain revenue any way they can, and under the housing bubble years, getting it out of new home construction is one recourse.
It may well be that entire states will have and cling to institutional impediments to establishing more resilient suburbs. If they do, they do so at their own economic peril.
Steinbeck wept!
Note that if an electric transport corridor runs through a suburb, that brings a large number of houses outside of walking range within electric bike range.
Indeed, if suburban house values continue to slump, as urban townhouse values in large numbers of cities slumped during the 1950's and 1960's, putting an electrified transport corridor through will be required to make the houses sale-able by making it possible to live in them without a car per person, which will open up houses to a substantially larger potential market.
The other thing that will happen, of course, just as with urban townhouses in the 50's and 60's, is a move toward multiple residence dwellings ... which may easily include a cluster of "tiny houses" in back lawn, complementing the garden plots in the front.
Until it snows. Or are all 300+ million of us moving to coastal California? Or am I unaware of some newfangled way we'll all hibernate?
There will be plenty of cars around, there is no need to throw them away, in fact if rarely used they would last for ages.
When the weather is too bad you can drive in, perhaps carpooling, and ride a bike or electric bike at other times, and still save much of your use.
The practical issue is that while this is true, the truth of it is quite unhelpful. Most of the expense of having a car at all is paid out whether one drives it much or not. If one drives few enough miles that a bike can make a serious dent in the car usage, one is probably not driving the car enough to make it pay, i.e. it will rust out before it wears out. And yet getting rid of the car is not an option for most people. In most parts of the USA, there are either long icy winters, or else a goodly number of days when it's not very smart to be outside riding any kind of bike in the full, roasting glare of the blazing summer sun. This last issue is, of course, why there were no really large cities in the South until after air conditioning - which doesn't work on bikes - came into fairly wide use. (Go to any large Southern metropolis, and observe how risibly tiny the pre-World-War-II downtown actually is.)
Um...not exactly, or at least nowhere near universally. In any area that has winter, there will be some use of road salt. In any area close by the seacoast, there will be salt in the air. Combine either of these with a moist climate, and cars will not last for ages. There's that pesky thing called "rust". Cars can last for ages in desert climates that have no real winter, although there are still lots of plastic and rubber bits that deteriorate and cost money to maintain regardless of whether one drives much.
What the cost of owning a car is is so much dependent on the vagueries of the tax system, insurance etc that it is difficult to comment unless you live in that particular country or county.
No one solution would fit everyone, and alternatives vary.
I don't think it is realistic to look at the worst of every situation - sooner or later you have to start working out what compromises you can make, and making the best of things.
For instance, you comment that it gets too hot in the summer to ride a bike in some regions.
Well, most people go to work in the morning, and come home in the evening, when the sun is not at it's peak, and an electric bike would mean that you would not need to pedal and get sweaty.
If that is where you live, if a car ride can't be afforded, you just have to figure out something - perhaps car pooling.
Alternatively it might be necessary to take digs during the week close to your place of work.
Or you might have to somehow get the money for a full EV, and perhaps make people pay for lifts.
In any case, where it is essential present standards of comfort and convenience can certainly be compromised.
I have a 21 year old farm truck that I bought used 10 years ago. It stays outside under no cover 12 months a year in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. While I only use it ~500 miles/yr, it runs like a top with little to no rust and I expect to be using it for another 5+ years. It especially comes in handy during snow storms, so it sees more than its share of salt.
Velomobiles are all weather biking vehicles, with optional electric-boost hubs.
See an interesting video of an outing.
Notice that the velomobiles are basically trikes with a shell. We have a tandem trike and find that riding in the snow is only a problem after it gets 3 or 4 inches deep. If roadways are plowed, as they are here in Wisconsin, then using a trike in the winter is pretty doable. Road ice is fairly manageble with a trike. However, IMHO, I think trikes and velomobiles are just too dangerous for most winter riding because of motor vehicles. I could easily survive (and I'm a senior citizen) with a trike for most daily transportation needs if motor vehicles were not such a problem for my safety. I believe that it will take a real catastrophe before bikes and trikes are excepted as legitmate vehicles on the roadways - I don't see any type of rational transition. And yet, the vast majority of people could easily bike 20 or 30 miles a day and find new joy in life.
Exactly - just plowing is not enough. Without proper de-icing - i.e., usually, road salt - which is getting to be a serious issue in some Wisconsin cities, it's unsafe, without the protection of a car, to be anywhere near cars that may cut loose and slide at any random moment. And the unsafe zone can readily include the sidewalk.
In Madison (the capital) city policy is not to plow unless there is a large snow, and not to de-ice except on major streets. No doubt this is more congenial to the slimy vermin infesting the lakes, but it does make it extremely hazardous even to walk. Not only are there the sliding cars, but one simply cannot get very far without needing to try to walk cross the slick sheet of glare ice that, in winter, passes for a street. Studded tires even on a normal bicycle do work under some conditions, but they don't solve the problem of the sliding cars.
And also unsafe to be anywhere near cars that may cut loose and slide at any random moment if trapped within a car.
I have no doubt that such will be the case, and obesity, heart disease, hypertension, etc will lessen from the exercise.
Treehuger had an article: It's More Dangerous NOT to ride a bike. The nickel tour is that while you may be at greater risk of accidents on a bike, the health benefits of pedaling outweigh the accident risk by 4 to 1.
Why would snow prevent someone from riding an e-bike for, say, three miles? You are confusing short term reactions and long term adaptation. Since, objectively, snow is no impediment to riding a bike, that means that the general idea that it represents some massive obstacle is a projection based on experience of people who drive cars for transport and only use bikes for recreation, if at all.
My lithium battery doesn't like to get wet so yes precipitation will prevent me from e-biking three miles in the snow. Not that we have snow in Tucson. If I bicycle 300 days a year, so what I take the car in bad weather.
I find it hard to believe that a weatherproof battery container is a technological impossibility.
I was biking 14 miles to work last December, which was a bit much, but I don't see how 3 miles would be much of a challenge.
A waterproof container that can be openned and closed for charging and cheap. I'm out of bicycling mode because my battery blew up last week and I minimized the risks. If you want to go bicycling with wet brakes it isn't any of my business.
That's even less of a worry for any half serious commuter bike than snow.
The only thing that worries me here in Northeast Ohio is freezing rain. For freezing rain, I'll catch the bus most of the way to work, and bike that last half mile, even though its slower than riding all the way.
I keep my lithium ion batteries dry so I can ride 365 days a year in Chicago regardless of the weather.
I stopped driving because I don't need to. I've built a bike that can go 45 mph, a bike that can go 200 miles on a charge and a bike that can pull 1000 lbs of cargo on a homebuilt trailer. There are plenty of ways for us to move forward and prosper in a low energy world.
"Why would snow prevent someone from riding an e-bike for, say, three miles?"
the snow is 1 foot deep ? but what would prevent someone from walking those 3 miles ?
At least in this part of Ohio, the sidewalk snowplow takes a lot longer to show up than the road snowplow, and three miles is further than the sidewalk snowplow goes in most directions. Once the deep snow hits, it really is much easier to get around by bike than walking, even for things that are within walking distance for most of the year.
If the snow is a mere one foot deep, what conceivable obstacle would that be for cycling? Its not like anyone in their right mind would use a "road" bike for commuting on the actual roads in Northeast Ohio. The snow slows you down a bit, but for short distances, its just a matter of allowing five extra minutes.
Westexas -
I think these tiny houses are a great idea but I've seen a fair amount of resistance to small houses and cabins from building departments even in relatively rural areas. Even a very rural town / county in my area of NY requires a minimum of 1400 sq ft for a house - a standard that I think is beyond ridiculous for this area. But you know we have to have everyone join in to prop up the "values" of the McMansion crowd - got to keep those prices up around $300,000...
I'm sure as economic and energy conditions become more tenuous in the future there may be more and more of a blind eye turned toward the building codes... but the ridiculous requirements are not making it easy for people who want to change ahead of the curve to actually do it.
For now our options are rent or go massively in debt for an overvalued energy pig of a house... So we rent.
That requirement is one reason it is common to put the Tiny Houses on trailers ... it is not uncommon to have an exception for mobile houses.
However, depending on the locality, some places that have a minimum size rule also have exceptions for things like sheds and detached garages where there are some Tiny Houses that slip under the bar.
In any event, if the constraint that stands between a suburb and economic viability is a zoning restriction, rather than a material constraint, that is an opportunity for some locality somewhere to experiment with changing the rule, and reap the benefit of being an early mover.
Mother Earth News had an article or two on Microhouses
back in 1995.
However, we already have a bunch of microhouses in disguise. The bedrooms (and some other rooms as well) of newer McMansions are larger than a microhouse, so they can be converted to apartments with shared communal areas.
Jeff has done all of us a favor bringing up the issue no one really wants to think about and his attempt to search for concrete options to deal with the "greatest misallocation of resources in the history of mankind" as James K says. Some thoughts: (1)Put a temporary moratorium on platts for new suburban development everywhere, especially outside towns and townships.(2) If a suburb has a retail or business core which has a definable possible future, concentrate density there by zoning change to a mixed use model and in effect try to make this core into a type of "town." The obvious purpose is to encourage living here and discourage living outside the core town.
(3)Force the developers to pay for the infrastructure of their out of town developments...... and have just the inhabitants pay all of the infrastructure costs...in perpetuity. Roads, schools, police and fire..you name it. No help from the state,the county or the nearby town. (4) imagine a scenario where the state or local government or county or fed buy the properties beyond a certain radius and lease or sell the property and drop or eliminate taxes if it becomes productive agricultural land(5) If there are roads needing maintenance, maintain the inner town core. Let the rest revert to gravel.(6) Develop a business model perhaps similar to Habitat for Humanity where the discarded suburban dwellings can be recycled and moved to a central location where the components can be used for the mixed use residential areas in the town core. I could imagine a scenario where the former owners might retain some form of title with the town to perhaps lease the property as garden space, in some small way cushioning their loss. (7) Change building codes to force new construction to be easily recyclable. For example stud walls would be assembled with metal connectors which could be unscrewed or unbolted instead of nailed with coated nails which are almost impossible to remove. I am a builder who has built this way for 25 years. Ditto the interior walls etc. This would allow recovery of undamaged components and make cleanup so much easier. Use only building materials that have recycling potential. Pipes both drain and feed could be assembled with connectors instead of permanent solder and ABS glue. Use metal roofs and not shingles and certainly asphalt shingles should be banned for a myriad of reasons. At some point in the not too distant future the permanent costs of low density sprawl will be fabulously unaffordable for the inhabitants and the community. Somebody needs to say it. Anyone now living in such areas should get out ASAP if they can. Imagine Detroit on a national scale.