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137 comments on DrumBeat: November 3, 2008
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137 comments on DrumBeat: November 3, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Wondering where your $700 billion of bailout dollars will go?
Well wonder no more:
Related financial news...
Loss in confidence in banks causes huge shifts in deposits
Medvedev: U.S. to blame for global financial crisis
I heard on the radio yesterday that some banks are not putting foreclosed homes up on the market because doing so will cause property values to drop.
Well, if prices don't drop, will anyone buy at today's prices?
P.S. Drove buy an empty house yesterday. Been empty for a few months, but I don't remember ever seeing a FOR SALE sign on it. Yesterday, it had a (new) 2 foot diameter hole on the second floor.... Maybe pigeons moved in?
My guess is that it had a jacuzzi tub in the 2nd floor bath and a neighbor wanted it. Just give it a few months, neighbors will want the water heater, furnace, windows, doors, and maybe even some of the wiring, switches, light fixtures...
Spare parts... I'm being reminded of a junkyard: People will come around and take the spare parts... Maybe that's what suburbia will become. Like a junkyard containing spare parts for other homes...
I'm counting on it! I know that some of you think I'm nuts, but I see great opportunities in "homesteading" the suburbs. Maybe not the exurbs and disconnected subdivisions, but find a nice small town cum bedroom community and there a real possibilities.
Sometimes I think Paulson, Bernanke and Cox must wake up every morning and ask themselves: "What can we do today to further destroy confidence in the banking system?"
To date they have done absolutely nothing to improve transparency.
The banks have trillions of dollars of questionable assets lurking on off-balance-sheet vehicles. Citigroup alone reported in June that it had $1.18 trillion in off-balance-sheet holdings.
From the Bloomberg story cited below: "Houston-based Enron Corp. declared bankruptcy in late 2001 when it was forced to put trusts back on its balance sheet..."
FASB Chairman Robert Herz calls these off-balance-sheet holdings "ticking time bombs."
And yet, our illustrious leaders have decided to keep the banking system in a state of suspense until November of 2009:
This sure ain't no way to run a railroad. What it leads me to believe is that these off-balance-sheet entites are so bad that, if the banks were to be forced to be expose to the world just how bad they are, it would immediately bankrupt almost every major bank in the United States.
What other reason would they have for putting off execution day?
I've been thinking that, too.
Perhaps a national "liar's loan"?
From Bloomberg:
Denninger says this is ten times as much as last year.
What we're seeing play out now is a process by which the debt of these banks is being moved off their balance sheets and onto the balance sheet of the U.S. government.
But as you and a growing chorus are beginning to point out, how good is the credit of the U.S. government?:
The failure of bond issues is likely to be a rolling process in my view, with progressively stronger economies picked off.
Austria, Spain and Belgium recently had to pull bond issues:
http://eurowatch.blogspot.com/
Since there is no chance of Germany approving Euro-wide bond issuance on the required scale, it seems likely that this will roll through the European countries, many of which have huge sums out in Eastern Europe and other developing countries.
None of them, of course including the UK, have the advantage of being the international currency that the dollar is, so they will be initially easier to pick off.
After that process has run it's course, then the US will stick out like a sore thumb, and doubts must surface.
At that stage the Renminbi is perhaps likeliest to become the international currency.
I think this extremely unlikely. The Chinese economy is built upon an export model. Do you seriously believe that there is substantial enough internal spending to generate the sort of growth that China has been going through? Already the export economy is slowing.
One sample story of many;
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-factory3-2008nov03,1,2982466.story
Chinese growth is predicated on continued growth in the major consumer (read import) societies. It is a house of cards that is already starting to come down. And when you consider that their investments are being crushed just as much as everyone else's.... And the "local" Chinese stock markets preceded the west's in turning down last year.
No, the Chinese are in no position to provide any remedy or leadership in this crisis.
China has a very high savings rate, and recent experience of a command economy.
It would not be easy, but resources presently devoted to exports, producing nothing but US government bonds of dubious worth, could be put to building, for instance, even faster growth in renewable and nuclear technology than the high rates already planned, and to improvements in infrastructure.
This is the opposite of the problems in the US and Europe, who are in the unenviable position of traditionally consuming more than they produce, and switching will be far easier for the Chinese.
Being in current account surplus and having a high savings rate are two of the traditional prerequisites for becoming the main currency of international settlement.
The Japanese were able to put these two together in the 1980s and it did not get them to "main currency" status. Thinking about the last two currencies to hold that status (dollar, pound), leads me to think that a third traditional prerequisites might be military dominance.
Still, I' don't believe that the Chinese have yet reached the critical mass necessary to launch their economy without dependence on trade. That current account surplus is likely to disappear real fast in the collapse of global trade (global shipping by volume is expected to be down 8% this year -
http://thestar.com.my/maritime/story.asp?file=/2008/11/3/maritime/240524...)
And Chinese savings rates are a mixed bag. If they are indeed the 50% that gets floated around, that means that essentially only have of the economic output of the country is being funneled back into the consumer portion of the economy. And when one considers that a good portion of that "savings" goes into the pockets of the government, one wonders just how much good it can do.
I would have thought the biggest qualification needed to become the main trading currency was the failure of the preceding one - the US seems to be in a fair way to fulfilling that, by 2012 at the latest I would have thought, and likely much earlier.
Something will have to fill the gap, perhaps assisted by barter.
That's an interesting thought - what was the last time that there was no main trading currency? I'm afraid my finance history fails me here. The pound came to prominence with the industrial revolution, so say end of the 18th century. When did the Spanish Pieces of Eight lose its status as primary currency? Certainly the heyday was the 17th century - was their an interim?
(and of course, that was primarily a European trading currency. Chinese currency held sway through most of east and southeast asia for centuries before the dutch started to displace it.
I don't know nearly enough about the subject to give a very informed answer. However, it is clear that the only time that the main trading currency changed when we had anything remotely like current finance and trading patterns was in the changeover from Sterling to the Dollar.
In this instance it was due to systemic balance of payments weaknesses and the far greater heft of the US in the World economy.
Perhaps in a similar manner it might be argued that a currency based on the currency of a much larger fraction of the world population with a high savings rate and balance of payments surplus would be far more suitable than the Dollar.
These things take time, and the changeover from Sterling was protracted.
In previous ages AFAIK currencies were much more regional, with, for instance, Spanish currency dominating the New World, and Chinese currency and banking much of the far East, with the Dutch also having a massive influence in many areas.
Perhaps in a similar way various ad-hoc arrangements and currencies will provide some of the functions of the Dollar, if the US economy which supports it tanks as I expect.
What about the oft-rumored Gulf dinar? Things are picking up over there again with regards to a common currency amongst the Gulf nations. Someone has been buying a LOT of physical gold lately, maybe them?
I've been asking for a while -- where is the money going to come from? The current system is based on a circular flow of money. US consumers buy oil from petrostates and cheap toys, electronics, and cars from Asia. The recipients of those dollars then turn around and plough those dollars into treasuries.
If the first part of that circular flow (US consumers buying stuff) shuts down, then the second part must necessarily shut down as well. We'd have a problem with the value of the dollar and long-term interest rates, even if the US didn't increase borrowing 10x.
The Bloomberg passage goes along with something I've been thinking about. It seems as though we may have moved into the last phase of the debt crisis as national governments become the last backer of loans, guarantor of loans and source of loans. Worse, they are doing it by borrowing money! So, who backs, guarantees and sources loans when national governments can no longer raise money through new bond issues?
The U.S. Treasury can issue new bonds, notes, and bills without any practical limit, because the Federal Reserve can buy Treasuries without any limit at all--creating money out of thin air. If long Treasuries have an excessive interest rate, then the Fed can buy up most of them to get the interest rate down. Never underestimate the Fed's ability to "print" money.
Of course when the deficit equals a quarter or a third of GDP, then we'll get runaway inflation. I think that is coming over the next dozen years.
What would you guess to be the consequences if the only buyer for newly issues Treasury notes was the Federal Reserve?
Yes, the Fed can create all the money it likes, in theory. In practice?
In practice the Fed is doing everything it can to avoid a deflationary depression. Only as a last resort will the Fed alow inflation to rise into double digits--but that last resort may come next year.
I am not convinced that there is going to be debt deflation. It is a possibility that could happen, but I think it is equally likely that the Treasury will borrow multitrillion dollar amounts each year and that the Fed will finance these ever-larger deficits with "printed" money.
Thus whether we get inflation first or deflation first is a tossup. If we're going to get deflation, it should show up in the Consumer Price Index next year. If we're going to get increased inflation, that should also show up in next year's numbers.
We live in interesting times.
I have one problem with the notion of "printing money". According to Wikipedia, all money except M0 is created via credit. M0 has been flat essentially for ever, what has been growing via credit is M1-M3. Now if credit collapses (tightens) then the money supply will shrink and we will have deflation. So far the FED and the govt have been trying to counter this by taking over the banks' job; e.g. creating credit directly. Now if this does not work either, the government may try to do what you say by creating electronic money out of thin air. But isn't this supposed to become evident from FED reports? I yield to the possibility that those reports may be "cooked", but what is the possibility of the US govt being caught in that? I suspect our creditors have whole teams, whose job is watching for just that possibility. If even some shade of doubt arises that Uncle Sam is printing we might have the mother of all runs happening virtually overnight.
Not to say you are definitely wrong, I myself am up in the air re deflation vs inflation.
It is possible that the persistent rumours of offshore banks buying USA t-bills with USA taxpayer money are accurate-hard to say.
Why shouldn't offshore banks buy up T-bills? They have been a very good investment lately, with the dollar strengthening against other currencies. Almost everybody buys T-bills, and those that have not been buying them wish they had bought them. Those who bought some Treasuries wish they had purchased more.
Compared to the stock markets of the world, T-bills have been an outstanding investment over the past couple of years. T-bills have also been outperforming oil and precious metals lately, too.
So long as foreigners are glad to buy U.S. Treasury debt there is no need for the Fed to print money. If and when the time comes that the Treasury has trouble selling its new issues, then the Fed will step up and buy whatever amount is needed to make the new issue of bonds, notes, and bills a success.
All Ponzi schemes and bubbles are great until they aren't-I was just pointing out that some persons feel that not all info is being shared with the general public on this one.
In general, people and organizations who have been buying Treasuries boast about it, because Treasuries have been such a good investment over the past couple of years. What would be the motive for keeping the purchase of Treasuries secret?
Conspiracies exist, but I cannot imagine why there would be a conspiracy to conceal the fact of the purchase of U.S. Treasuries. Why would a bank conceal its wealth or its shrewd investment decisions?
Because Wednesday morning somebody new will be in charge of the whole mess?
What other reason would they have for putting off execution day?
Just a wild guess here, but I'm pondering if execution day may be only hours or weeks away.
My suspicion: every measure has been taken to sure up things until the election is over. Expect the worse after the 4th.
Allow me some room for doomerish speculation.
If Obama wins, then TPTB will let the slide begin big time. Once the Christmas bonuses are firmly in hand, courtesy of the US taxpayer, the whole banking system will implode and the blame will be leveled squarely at those lefty socialistic Democrats. As a convenient subtext: see, that's what happens when you leave someone other than a white man in charge.
Meanwhile, if McCain wins, ditto except this time blame can be assigned to the uncertainty caused by the riots that will most likely erupt. Failing that, blame can be focused on the uncertainty generated by those pesky foreigners who will be befuddled and bewildered by where and what the United States has become.
With any luck, the strain will be too much on poor Old McCain, and Ms. Palin will become God's chosen instrument to institute theocracy onto the grand panoply of messianic and apocalyptic fulfillment.
Either way, the pirates will run away with the treasure. The great ship is sinking and the crew has secured the lifeboats for themselves. As an added bonus, a new captain has been selected from among the steerage just as the last of the water tight compartments is failing so it will be his job to go down with the ship.
Zadok;
I like you, so Iam about to tell you a story, its fictional, which is more true that the truth. You allude in your comment, how things are "fixed" so too speak. Heres my fictional truth.
6000 years ago, someone invented a gambling game using two squares with numbers on each side of each square. These numbers were represented by dots indented into each side, 1,2,3,4,5,6 dots on each of the 6 sides. Today we call these, dice.
Archaeological excavations discovered the oldest dice known, very precise carbon dating was employed, it was certain to within a few days (give or take) how old these dice were. Very near the same archaeological dig site, yet another pair were found. Again precise carbon dating was used too determine the exact age of the artifacts. It was determined beyond doubt, that this second pair of dice, were infact, mere days younger than the first pair discovered.
Further examination also proved, the second pair had been "shaved" or "loaded" as it were. This was obviously done in an effort to win an advantage. So the archaeological team drew a conclusion from this evidence.
No sooner that a game is invented, than that game will be defeated and succumb to scamming and crookedness.
Nephilim <----Never gambles unless the pit boss is honest. An honest pitt boss is one who after being paid off....stays bought.
We even know who those dice belonged to:
They say that Cain caught Abel
rolling loaded dice,
ace of spades behind his ear
and him not thinking twice
--Robert Hunter
'Ms. Palin will become God's chosen instrument to institute theocracy onto the grand panoply of messianic and apocalyptic fulfillment.'
only a preacher[er or a priest]could put it so well!
But the people who landed us in this soup are also suffering mightily and making painful sacrifices:
More here on Fuld:
http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/business/2008/10/10/ac.10.most.wanted.f...
Are you gonna set up an election thread?
democRAT
How could we differentiate a TOD election thread from one on a non-energy site?
Here's election news:
Stevens juror: I lied about dad, went to horse race
As a side note, I think we've found Sara Palin's birth mom...
And some of the rest of the $700 Billion...
Remember that ban on short-selling enacted to protect 19 major financial firms?
In case you missed the story: Some of these 19 firms received bailout (taxpayer) money. BAU continued, they couldn't just pocket ALL the money, so they recommenced speculating, betting short on Volkswagon. Many auto companies are expected to fail, so it seemed like a good bet. Except, Porsche was quietly buying up VW shares. When Porsche announced they had acquired a controlling interest in VW, shares went up, way up. All the short sellers were forced to buy, on the way up, and lost billions of dollars.
A better explanation can be found at TAE (TOD's red-headed stepchild...).
Is that legal?
Was the bailout legal?
Yes.
"I will make it legal." -Senator Palpatine/Darth Sidious
(Sorry, I saw the Star Wars reference and had to go for it.)
I see your Sith and raise you the dead.
http://thinkexist.com/quotation/never_forget_that_everything_hitler_did_...
I wonder how many fools believe(d) the intent of this rape and pillage was ever anything else...
Cheers
Surprisingly, a relatively small % of the American public bought into this scam, even with almost the entire MSM promoting it vigourously.
I know a very high percentage thought it was a bad idea, but what percentage literally realized it was nothing more than the government literally shoveling money into the pockets of the criminals and miscreants that made all this happen?
Cheers
On a tangentially related note: I was just wondering out loud to my poor wife (who has the sorry privilege of hearing most of my wondering aloud) that a McCain win on Tuesday might, with all the fear and panic already in the air and the miserable past eight years having been so filled with lies, the rape of the Constitution, etc., might actually get some people into the streets. The illegalities would have to be enormous for McCain to win at this point. (Obama could lose Colorado, Nevada, NM, Ohio, Florida and NC and STILL win if he takes Virginia, for example.)
I would be so proud...
A McCain win would be very ambitious-they would basically be saying-we do what we want and we challenge you to do something about it.
And they're itching to do it too, but their paymasters on Wall Street have to consider what mass chaos, protest strikes and martial law would mean. Who will dare to leave their houses to shop at malls? Most of the GNP is consumption, and most shopping is during the Christmas season. Imagine a Christmas season which drops not 3%, but 20 or 40%. Entire retail corporations go down, entire banks follow, the Dow loses half its value and pulls the world into a deep depression.
In other words, it's like the last year in Pakistan if Pakistan dominated the entire planet.
What are you talking about? Nobody is going to go protesting or boycotting in this country. Everyone is up to their neck in debt and even a day out of work could cost your job and by extension everything you are paying for.
People won't hit the streets unless they have nothing left to lose... and it would take a full scale economic meltdown for this to happen. But if we get to that it won't matter who's in office, really. Otherwise - risk my job to determine which clown take the office?? No f**king way.
Hmmm...perhaps it's a good time to watch "V for Vendetta" again?
Ah yes, 'remember remember, the 5th of November'. McCain saying lately he expects to win 'very late on Election Night', which is really the 5th then.
And the theme of the movie was that nothing is a coincidence...
Anybody catch the Simpsons last night?
"I've got to report this to President McCain. This can't happen in America... maybe Ohio, but not in America!"
Homer vs. electronic voting machine...
Nobody is going to go protesting or boycotting in this country.
Boycotts go on every day. Protests are common enough for the need for 'free speech zones'. Just because YOU don't participate does not mean they do not happen.
Thank God the Goldman Sachs Golden Parachute Releif Package passed congress last month. I was really getting concerned that these folks would have to downsize to a smaller yacht, or perhaps have to get rid of their Parisian condo and be stuck with just their few mansions here in the states.
But hey, at least I'm not footing the bill... My kids are. They'll figure out how to pay for it when the baby boomers start tapping Socail Security and medicare, Peak Oil is in full swing, and global warming renders large swaths of the planet both uninhabitable and infertile for agriculture...
When Hank Paulson was on his knees, begging, surely you knew it wasn't in behalf of ordinary people like you or I?
Goldman Sachs and their 443 partners are living in an unethical dreamworld if they think they can each take £3million from the kitty in times like these for their Christmas bonuses. There should not be any bonuses this year.
Silly me, now I get it, their going to all buy us cake for Christmas!