![]() | DrumBeat: November 13, 2008 | The Oil Drum | The 2008 IEA WEO - The World Energy Model and Energy Demand | ![]() |
161 comments on The 2008 IEA WEO - The Oil Drum Initial Review (#1 in a Series)
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161 comments on The 2008 IEA WEO - The Oil Drum Initial Review (#1 in a Series)
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GAIA Host Collective
I'm not of the opinion as inferred in one of the comments above that its all down hill from here and think we will have one last surge before the 'Big Event'.
My reason is simply this -and reflects your comment- the vast majority of people DO NOT BELIEVE IN PO.
Only when there is a 'mass recognition event' will it be game over IMO.
So my advice to you would be wait around 12 months and buy as many PO-related downbeaten stocks as you can afford and sit back and wait till 2014 at which point you will probably be glad that you where one of that tiny % of believers way back in 2008...
Nick.
I have been buying energy and energy shipping stocks, but I fear that it might not work out as I intend. There is so much anger directed toward energy companies by such a large portion of the public, that I wonder if we won't see nationalization either directly, or through onerous tax burdens that destroy any profitability. For an example, look at how Canada has treated its canroys in the last couple years. Two years ago it arbitrarily changed the tax structure after explicitly promising not to, which caused the value of canroys to drop about a third. This year, Alberta decided it wants more royalties, again causing damage to share prices. Nobody sees these things as issues however, because, in the minds of many, oil companies are evil and deserve punishment.
Anyway, I keep buying in, but without the same conviction I used to have that I will see a good payoff in 5-10 years. I used to worry about flow rates and reserves and such, but I'm coming to realize that the largest risk energy companies face is government and public sentiment -- something perhaps even more fickle than mother nature's underground world.