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162 comments on Obama's Energy Policy: Listening When We Disagree
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162 comments on Obama's Energy Policy: Listening When We Disagree
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Ethanol is a huge success.
I have to be honest here. That's not something I would expect a conservationist to say. What are you interested in conserving?
Ethanol producers are close to supplying 10% of the US liquid fuel requirments.
Could you show your math on that, bearing in mind that 1). "Liquid fuels" include gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel; 2). Ethanol has a lower energy content than gasoline; 3). It takes a lot of fossil fuel energy to make ethanol; 4). Despite demand being down somewhat, motor fuel (excluding diesel) demand is still running at 141 billion gallons over the past 52 weeks (per the EIA's motor fuel stats)?
Charges that ethanol has increased the price of corn have been proved false
Much like peak oil was proved false when oil prices fell?
The price of corn appears to be tied closely to the price of oil.
It is, for a couple of reasons. Commodities in general were in a bull market until recently, but there are a lot of energy inputs that go into corn production (and hence ethanol production). But it is also true that corn ethanol puts pressure on corn prices. The only thing that has been proved is that the entire run-up in corn prices wasn't simply due to increased demand from ethanol. I am all for corn farmers being able to make a living, but we are encouraging overproduction from them. When they overproduce, we bail them out by increasing the mandates. As I have argued, it's a vicious circle.
"1). "Liquid fuels" include gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel;"
Total Finished Motor Gasoline 3390 million barrels. (2007)
Total Ethanol 240 million barrels (2007)
Ethanol = 7% of Finished Motor Gasoline in 2007
"4). Despite demand being down somewhat, motor fuel (excluding diesel) demand is still running at 141 billion gallons over the past 52 weeks (per the EIA's motor fuel stats)?"
Per EIA: Finished motor gasoline includes all ethanol blended gasoline (e.g. E10, E85).
Ethanol (yes even corn ethanol) is not that bad.... if you believe the numbers.
Ethanol = 7% of Finished Motor Gasoline in 2007
You saw though, I presume, that liquid fuels are only partially comprised of gasoline. That was the point; if you are truly talking about liquid fuels the number is around 200 billion gallons a year. Also, 7% by volume of ethanol does not displace 7% gasoline. One of the other points.
Per EIA: Finished motor gasoline includes all ethanol blended gasoline (e.g. E10, E85).
It does. Now, back out the ethanol, and do the math correcting for the energy content. You get maybe 5% (and less if you are talking about all liquid fuels). Now correct for the energy inputs into the ethanol. You are down to 1 or 2%.
Ethanol (yes even corn ethanol) is not that bad.... if you believe the numbers.
Depends on which numbers you are talking about, and how happy you are with the negative side-effects.
"Also, 7% by volume of ethanol does not displace 7% gasoline."
What is the portion you don't understand? Of the 3390 million barrels of finished gasoline, 240 million barrels were ethanol...
EIA does not count energy content for gasoline blends, ethanol or diesel, etc... Everything is based on volume, gallons or barrels.
I think we can be quite happy with the positive side-effects of ethanol:
Less CO2
Less dependence on foreign oil
Less rapid depletion of current oil supplies
More inland jobs
More source diversification
Cleaner exhausts
Cheaper to consumers
What is the portion you don't understand?
Entschuldigung? Are you kidding or are you some sort of moron? This is grade school stuff, and yet you 1). Don't understand it; 2). Insult others because you think you do.
But let's assume you are just kidding around. The original claim was "Ethanol producers are close to supplying 10% of the US liquid fuel requirments." That is clearly false for the reasons I spelled out. First, he is really talking about only gasoline, but said "liquid fuels", which is a much larger category. So, that amounts to a big exaggeration. Second, it takes more than a gallon of ethanol to displace a gallon of gasoline. When you correct for that, the amount of contribution toward liquid fuel supplies falls. If you don't understand that, try this. If the gasoline requirement for the U.S. is 140 billion gallons, and you supplied 140 billion gallons of ethanol, would you have supplied 100% of the liquid fuel requirements?
Finally, though, is the fact that it takes energy to make ethanol. So some of the liquid fuel that is used in the country is used to transport corn and ethanol. This lowers the net contribution even further.
Truly, that's not hard to understand. I understand it, as I think do most others here. But do you?
Entschuldigung? Are you kidding or are you some sort of moron? This is grade school stuff, and yet you 1). Don't understand it; 2). Insult others because you think you do.
Sorry, but I resent your tone in this post. What kind of person are you? Please deal with the facts.
But let's assume you are just kidding around. The original claim was "Ethanol producers are close to supplying 10% of the US liquid fuel requirments." That is clearly false for the reasons I spelled out. First, he is really talking about only gasoline, but said "liquid fuels", which is a much larger category. So, that amounts to a big exaggeration. Second, it takes more than a gallon of ethanol to displace a gallon of gasoline. When you correct for that, the amount of contribution toward liquid fuel supplies falls. If you don't understand that, try this. If the gasoline requirement for the U.S. is 140 billion gallons, and you supplied 140 billion gallons of ethanol, would you have supplied 100% of the liquid fuel requirements?
No, I am dead serious. All I tried to do was present the EIA facts in their context:
"Total Finished Motor Gasoline 3390 million barrels. (2007)
Total Ethanol 240 million barrels (2007), These are the numbers you can find at EIA.
Therefore "Ethanol = 7% of Finished Motor Gasoline in 2007" is the correct conclusion.
What makes you say that I "don't understand; grade school stuff" and similar insults? If 10 is the total number of gallons used in a certain period and ethanol is 1 of those 10 gallons, clearly ethanol would be at 10%. Would you agree to this math? And please do not try to shift the discussion to some hypothetical "gasoline requirement for the US", because that is not at all what these EIA numbers are. They are simply about what was actually used.
Finally, though, is the fact that it takes energy to make ethanol. So some of the liquid fuel that is used in the country is used to transport corn and ethanol. This lowers the net contribution even further.
Truly, that's not hard to understand. I understand it, as I think do most others here. But do you?
Where did I say that it didn't take energy to make ethanol? What makes you even think that I don't understand that?
Sorry, but I resent your tone in this post. What kind of person are you? Please deal with the facts.
Wait a second. Did you forget that you just asked "What is the portion you don't understand?" I resent your tone. What kind of person are you? There was no portion I didn't understand. The fact that we are still arguing about it says there was a lot you didn't understand. The original claim about ethanol adding 10% to fuel supplies was way wrong. That's it. I have explained why. But you clearly still don't understand, as evidenced by:
If 10 is the total number of gallons used in a certain period and ethanol is 1 of those 10 gallons, clearly ethanol would be at 10%. Would you agree to this math?
Ethanol contains less energy. If you have 10 gallons of gasoline, remove 1 gallon and replace with ethanol, you can't drive the same distance. So you end up having to add more gasoline to the pool to avoid losing energy content. Thus, the math isn't additive. Without ethanol, your pool may be 140 billion gallons. But if 10 of that was from ethanol, and it only contains the energy of 7 billion gallons of gasoline, you have to add 3 billion of gasoline back to the pool. So, because of ethanol, your overall pool has to be bigger. This is where the straightforward math falls down. (Study the example in the last paragraph, and I think you will get it).
But there is a bigger problem here. Your gasoline number is way wrong. The number you supplied above is apparently only domestic production; it only amounts to 80 billion barrels a year. We actually use around 140 billion barrels of just gasoline. We get a lot of gasoline imports, and that all has to meet the ethanol requirements as well. So, our domestic ethanol is blended into that. The number you report above - 3390 million barrels - is only about 60% of our actual gasoline consumption. Correct that and now ethanol has fallen (even by volume) to less than 5%. Add in the other liquid fuels and the 3390 million barrel number is less than 40% of our total consumption. So the ethanol number continues to fall, in direct contrast to the initial number. But I suspect my time is wasted continuing to explain this.
What makes you even think that I don't understand that?
Because of the difficulty you seem to be having understanding the implications of "total liquid fuels", "net energy", and "lower energy content of ethanol." Here's an example. This is hypothetical, but should help you understand. Let's say it took 1 gallon of fossil fuel to make 1 gallon of ethanol. (For this example, we will ignore the lower energy content, which would also impact the final number). Say your initial pool is 9 gallons of fossil fuels. Now take out a gallon of fossil fuels and replace with a gallon of ethanol. But if it took a gallon of fossil fuels to make a gallon of ethanol, the gallon that you took out has to go back in. So the final pool is 10 gallons - 1 gallon of ethanol and still 9 gallons of fossil fuel. Per your argument, you would have replaced 10% of your pool - 1 gallon of ethanol in 10 gallons of product. In reality, you replaced zero. That's what's wrong with your argument.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm
Here you can see that annual total finished motor gasoline is 3381564 thousands in August (rounded to 3390 million annual) barrels. Which is by the way, IF YOU do the math 142 billion gallons.... Of this volume some is ethanol. ("See Definitions, Sources, and Notes link above for more information on this table.")
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_oxy_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm
Here you can see total Ethanol produced: 20059 thousand barrels per month (August as reference). Which amounts to a level of 240 million barrel annual.
So, I maintain that per EIA ethanol was reaching a level of 7% of total finished gasoline.
You're trying to confuse the matter by putting energy content and what not. That's a completely separate issue and has nothing to do with the EIA numbers. Numbers don't lie.... These EIA numbers are about volume. A gallon/barrel of ethanol has as much volume as a gallon/barrel of gasoline. I think you're confused.
Which is by the way, IF YOU do the math 142 billion gallons
My brain fart on that number. That's what I get for doing math before coffee in the morning.
But, the other point remains the same, and I don't think you understand it. The energy content is very important, because that makes the math not additive. If you look at my last example, you will see why at first glance it can seem that ethanol is making a specific contribution, but in reality it isn't displacing a thing. I think you would agree that per my last example, if adding ethanol to the fuel system didn't result in any decrease in fossil fuels in the system, then ethanol didn't help. It didn't displace anything. Please tell me you understand that example. It isn't about trying to confuse anything; it is about what ethanol is really contributing.
Further, back to the initial claim: Total liquids. You have never acknowledged that this wasn't correct. Motor gasoline was not the claim. It was total liquids, which is (referring to your EIA link) about double the mogas number.
A gallon/barrel of ethanol has as much volume as a gallon/barrel of gasoline. I think you're confused.
But it takes more than a gallon of ethanol to displace a gallon of gasoline. Hence, a simple volume/volume calculation can't tell you what ethanol actually did as far as helping. Again, refer to that last example.
Edited to add: If you want to see the problem with the way you are trying to do the numbers, read this essay:
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2007/09/wisconsin-tops-minnesota.html
If you understand that, you can see how ethanol could contribute volume-wise, but in reality isn't adding energy to the system. I think in that case, you would agree that it isn't helping - which is contrary to the point the original poster, and now you, are arguing.
I don't know what happens in your vehicle. But it seems there is some energy loss somewhere.
115000 energy in gallon gasoline (btu)
76000 energy in gallon ethanol (btu)
111100 energy in gallon E10 (btu)
320 miles trip
32 mpg gasoline
10 gallons used
1150000 btus used
29 mpg E10
11.03448276 gallons used E10
1225931.034 btus used
7% energy E10 disappeared??
Apparently your vehicle doesn't use as much of the energy in an E10 blend than the energy contained in gasoline.
Willem, it wasn't my vehicle. It was written by a guy who works for the Wisconsin Department of Transportation. I would say that his personal experience is extreme, but look at the numbers he got by looking across the entire state of Wisconsin versus Minnesota.
But you are missing the point. Whether it was -7% or -1% is irrelevant to the point that the numbers aren't additive because of 1). The lower energy content; 2). The fact that putting ethanol into the system requires the use of liquid fossil fuels to make the ethanol.
Bottom line is that the initial 10% claim was a gross exaggeration, and even your claim of 7% (assuming you are only talking about mogas) is too high if what you are trying to show is how much contribution ethanol made (you are trying to show that ethanol helps?). Because by claiming that it is adding 7%, most people are going to take that to mean our fossil fuels displacement was 7%. That would be an actual 7% contribution. That isn't what happens.
As my example above showed, you could have zero fossil fuel displacement and add 10% ethanol to the pool (hypothetically). I think most people would agree that in a case like that, ethanol didn't help at all. Yet you would claim that it contributed 10%, thus helping. That's not correct.
Yes, I realize it was mr. dikkers' vehicle. Doesn't matter though: it was the vehicle in your example.
1. Anyway, the lower energy content of ethanol IS accounted for in this vehicle example. See the math.
2. The 7% (from EIA) still stands and has nothing to do with energy content or how much fossil fuel went into the ethanol making process.
3. The "ethanol not helping at all" is probably due to the vehicle. And the stats between states show high standard deviations. Maybe ppl in Minnesota use more snowblowers, chainsaws, boats, lawnmowers or whatever.
The 7% (from EIA) still stands and has nothing to do with energy content or how much fossil fuel went into the ethanol making process.
Let's just cut to the chase. Do you acknowledge that 7% (by volume) in the motor gas pool doesn't displace 7% of the gasoline in the pool?
Do you acknowledge that the original 10% claim - especially since it was for all liquid fuels - is a gross exaggeration?
Let's just cut to the chase. Do you acknowledge that 7% (by volume) in the motor gas pool doesn't displace 7% of the gasoline in the pool?
Per EIA we used an annualized figure of 3390 barrels of "finished motor gasoline". This number includes the ethanol blends.
Also per EIA, we used an annualized figure of 240 barrels of ethanol. So, in this picture out of the 3390 barrels, 240 barrels came from ethanol. Therefore it is correct to say that of the "finished motor gasoline" 7% came from ethanol. So, you could of course say that ethanol displaced 7% that otherwise would have been gasoline.
One of the errors you think I am committing is that ethanol displaces a similar percentage of fossil fuel. I never said that. You brought up EIA in your initial reaction, so I thought it was good to check their numbers and reasoned on that basis to address your "show the math" challenge to the first poster.
How much fossil fuel (farmers diesel, natgas, etc.) actually goes into the making of ethanol is a different issue.
How effective ethanol is in our current combustion engines is another issue.
Do you acknowledge that the original 10% claim - especially since it was for all liquid fuels - is a gross exaggeration?
When he said "close to 10 %" I would say that 7% is "close" to 10%.
When he said "the US liquid fuels requirements", he was a bit off, because total liquid fuels includes stuff like diesel and kerosene and other distillates. But I think that in his mind he was thinking of gasoline, since that is where ethanol is used and not in the other fuels.
So, you could of course say that ethanol displaced 7% that otherwise would have been gasoline.
You see, this is exactly what you can't say. Had it not been ethanol, it wouldn't have been 7%. It would have been less. This is the point.
One of the errors you think I am committing is that ethanol displaces a similar percentage of fossil fuel. I never said that.
You just did. You said "displaced 7% that otherwise would have been gasoline."
When he said "close to 10 %" I would say that 7% is "close" to 10%.
The claim was "close to supplying 10% of the US liquid fuel requirments." That exact claim, on a volume basis, is less than 4% for US liquid fuels. But if the argument is how much ethanol is really helping - and of course that's exactly what the argument is - then that number is (roughly) 3% when you correct for the energy content, 2% when you correct for the liquid fossil fuel inputs, and under 1% when you correct for total fossil fuel inputs.
So yeah, it was a gross exaggeration no matter how you slice it.
You see, this is exactly what you can't say. Had it not been ethanol, it wouldn't have been 7%. It would have been less. This is the point.
???? If out of a total volume of 10 gallons/barrels/liters/etc. there are 2 gallons of something else, then that "something else" is 20% of the total volume. I don't understand how this simple math can be a problem for you. Whether that something else is ethanol or water or beer, doesn't matter. So, why would you say "Had it not been ethanol, it wouldn't have been 7%"????
You just did. You said "displaced 7% that otherwise would have been gasoline."
If out of the 10 volume units of the example hereabove, there were no "something elses" but only gasoline, then the 2 volume units DID INDEED DISPLACE what otherwise would have been only gasoline. I just can't understand that one cannot grasp this simple logic.
The claim was "close to supplying 10% of the US liquid fuel requirments." That exact claim, on a volume basis, is less than 4% for US liquid fuels. But if the argument is how much ethanol is really helping - and of course that's exactly what the argument is - then that number is (roughly) 3% when you correct for the energy content, 2% when you correct for the liquid fossil fuel inputs, and under 1% when you correct for total fossil fuel inputs. All this has been addressed and doesn't need further comment. But if you want to argue "how much ethanol is really helping" as you put it, then a whole lot of other considerations have to come into the discussion. This thread is getting old. Perhaps something for another time.