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It goes on to note that if renewable energy is only brought on-line to displace conventional coal power, then the net job losses from existing industries may well offset the gains in wind power.
Just a few words about the situation in the oil industry. When I was in the North Sea - in fact I was still there at this time last year - we had horrible manpower shortages. Many projects were delayed because there simply weren't enough people to execute them. While that has eased a bit as oil and gas prices have fallen and projects have been postponed or cancelled, I can see jobs being added in the alternative energy sector without impacting jobs in the oil industry in a one to one fashion. Were the industry at full employment levels, I would agree with the premise.
A little over a year ago I wrote an essay documenting the situation in Scotland:
Peak Manpower
Note that because the average oil industry worker is in their 50's, we may be facing more severe shortages within 10 years.
Two of the things I most worry about are shortages of petroleum engineers and shortages of nuclear engineers. Steel and other raw materials are relatively easy to get--experienced engineers are not. If I were emperor, I'd hire back the retired engineers to teach a greatly expanded cohort of engineering students in universities.
It takes a decade to educate and train on the job an engineer in the energy industry. I wonder how many experienced engineers the U.S. will be able to import, because we are not producing nearly enough in domestic universities. Indeed, many of our engineering students in the U.S. are foreigners who will go back to their native countries.
Engineering used to be a high-status profession, and the best students went into fields such as chemical engineering. Of course, when oil prices took a tumble, then there were no jobs for the chemical or petroleum engineers, so perhaps the "feast or famine" nature of the business has driven away many potential students.
Engineers keep industrial society going. In my opinion, none of our future problems is worse than the looming lack of engineers in various energy businesses.
I'm not sure it is the single greatest problem, but it certainly makes it onto my shortlist. I think the upside of our current economic turmoil may be a significant attitude change among the young. Hopefully the percieved value of jobs that actually create something of values, rather than fight over it -or simply entertain will soon be on the rise. Given the unexpected change in the US, from anti-intellectual government, to intellectual government, we will have to wait and see what transpires.
Don, enemy, what you're calling for is selfless altruism: Young people can work less hard in college and get better jobs with more upward mobility if they eschew engineering altogether.
I know it's different in Germany, but here in the US of A the rewards go to those who manipulate resources, not those who create them. Salary, promotions, and plain old control over your destiny are withheld from those who are viewed as interchangeable cogs in the great profit-making machine. Technical specialists, no matter how highly trained and experienced, are still viewed as the Enlisted Class by the Officer Corps.
After all, a GM or a VW isn't in business to make cars, their only raison d'ĂȘtre is making money, and cars are nothing more than a waste product of that enterprise. The means to the end is therefore to pinch back your expenses - meaning payroll - as much as possible while continuing to roll product out the door. Who cares if it's a short-sighted approach? Any Board of Directors that lets profits sag because they're investing in the future will be out the door long before their approach is vindicated.
None of this should be news to anyone here - I learned these lessons myself the hard way. You'd a thunk that a Stanford Ph.D. in Chemistry and a dozen patents would engender a little respect after thirty years, but you'd be wrong. So now I've abandoned all productive work, and my income has risen dramatically ever since. I can't get over this cognitive dissonance as I'm tugged between the extremes of judgment in "wasting my life" vs. seeing my work used to kill innocent people and enrich company leaders who are little more than hideous caricatures of bloated self-indulgence.
I'm sorry; was that harsh? As Lily Tomlin said, "No matter how cynical you get, it's impossible to keep up."
I think Don, and I expect many of these nonproductive jobs to go away. That still remains to be seen. But clearly many jobs in the financial system are going away. Thats a rather substantial attitude change of course. There will surely be resistance to it.
Don't forget the huge unproductive brain-drain from Uncle Sam's Military-Industrial-Political Complex. Ike is rolling in his grave. Uncle Sugar is absolutely desperate to hire more Federal Civil Servants (Formerly known as General Schedule, or 'GS' employees, now NSPS {Nt'l Security Personnel System)...Sandia, Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Savanna River, Hanaford, Pacific National Labs, and on and on. And then there are the contractors...lions and tigers and bear oh my! The vast majorities of these scientists and engineers need to be US citizens, and they are working on better ways to kill folks instead of better ways to conserve energy and provide more environmentally friendly energy and so forth. If that isn't bad enough, I authenticate that the 'managers' in this gigantic unproductive enterprise make far more than most of the PhD scientists and engineers...for making and presenting Power Point slides and such.
I don't want to hear the foderol that there aren't enough scientists and engineers to work in solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear energy, efficiency technologies, and power transmission...if we were to pull the throttle back 25% on our atrocious 'National (in)Security' budgets, we could do all that and more! Of course, Uncle Sam, and his 'Don't tax me one nickel (unless it is for 'National Defense' then we will give you everything you want and ignore you losing track of $2T over 15 years) taxpayers would have to re-allocate this level of effort to these energy and other sustainability technologies.
We spend more on 'National Defense' than the rest of the world combined, and have for some time now, with no letup in sight. Obama and his coterie of Democrats will not have the _alls to reduce the 'Defense' budget by even 10%...they know that the right-wing attack dog machine would pounce and the scared grandmas and soccer moms with the faded 'support our troops' magnets and stickers would run for safe have under the Republican's 'Big Daddy' 'Defense' umbrella, and all would be well again in Military-Industrial-Political Complex-Land. If the people needed extra convincing, then another 'attack' would magically happen.
Talk about cognitive dissonance...I dearly would love to work in the sustainable energy industries...where are they? They are but a mote of dust next to the M-I-P Complex job base. M-I-P Complex jobs pay a lot more and unfortunately will be around forever (or until our society collapses).
Oh, how I wish we could come to our senses. But in Luntz type opinion sampling, "keeping America strong" polls better than anything else. And remember the primaries, where Hillary, and Obama felt obliged to out-tough each other. This security fetish is deeply embedded within the culture. Politicians chip away at it at their peril.
I remember when things first started going south in Iraq. In conservative circles, it was routinely blamed on Clinton, for cutting the military. And the popularity of military conflict themes in the entertainment media just re-inforces the meme -that the best/only way to solve conflict is violence. And of course it is also so much better plotwise to have all your opponents being totally evil, wouldn't want any moral dilemmas to intrude on the satisfaction of killing the bad guys.
We have actually tried to do that (hire retired engineers as faculty) but not with a lot of success. It continues to be very difficult to find, let alone recruit good folk for faculty positions in the extractive fuels business (mining, nuclear petroleum). At the same time it is becoming very difficult to find good qualified graduate students, and the American industry has not had a good history of supporting meaningful research at Universities, which compounds both problems. Add to which my class sizes are about doubling (one of the reasons I am no longer as controversial) and you may realize why those of us getting up to about that age aren't thinking as much of more teaching, but rather of the wood stove, and the hot chocolate, and the gentle music of violins in the background.
The lack of good graduate students is critical--especially a few years down the line when we will need to dramatically increase the number of engineers that we are educating.
Forty or more years ago, when I was in the MBA program at U.C., Berkeley, we had a number of engineers in the program. They were tired of being second class citizens and wanted to move up into management, where they would get more money and a lot more respect.
During the first half of the twentieth century engineers had a lot of status, and many boys (and a few girls) dreamed about becoming engineers; they were the heroes of science fiction stories in the forties and the fifties. Indeed, "Astounding Science Fiction" was written largely by, for, and about engineers in an exciting future.
But since the end of the sixties, finance and law have been the prestige areas--as a result of which we have hundreds of thousands of useless parasitic lawyers and similar numbers of MBAs in finance; these are the people who drove great banks and brokerage houses into the ground.
My guess is that we will have to import huge numbers of engineers, because we are not producing anywhere near enough of them in the U.S.
You say "parasite" like it's a bad thing. Remember, parasitism is one of the more successful forms of mutualism; a certain percentage of humans are always trying to "achieve" this form. A lot of "religious workers" are just as parasitic as MBAs and lawyers.
Parasitism and mutualism are mutually exclusive; parasitism harms the host, mutualism helps both.
I don't see much use for religion, but churches haven't managed to worm themselves into every corner of business and trade the way the MBAs and lawyers have.
If we look at parasitism among lifeforms, it often evolves into something resembling mutualism. I think the distinction is not so clear cut. Even some forms that look like pure parasitism, can sometimes be observed to help the host -perhaps only in unusual circumstances. The parasites may defend the host against an occasional external threat. In any case, it is in the interest of the parasite, that the host survive, and possibly even prosper. So even for initially pure parasitic relationships in human societies, and not just in nature, there exists the possibility to negotiate a more cooperative relationship.
Don -
Engineering was never really a high-status profession in the US. Glorified mechanics was all they ever were. In fact, very little of engineering is, or was, even a true profession. The vast majority of engineers have been employees of medium to large corporations or large engineering and construction firms. Some, but not very many, engineers have gone into business for themselves as consultants, but that situation usually eventually degenerates into being a contract employee to one or two large corporations. It's really tough to make it on your own as an engineer.
As an engineer spawned out of the last throes of the slide-rule era, I can not in good conscience advise any young American person to go into engineering.
Why the hell bother? The academic curriculum is a bitch; most of the work you will be doing will be boring, tedious, and soul-numbing; the company you work for will treat you as an expendable commodity; and you will always be under the threat of being replaced by some imported Indian or Paki work-visa engineer. Is this worth pulling all-nighters for a heat transfer exam?
No wonder so many bright young Americans have wasted their God-given talents pursuing the golden calf on Wall Street rather than trying to do something of tangible use by becoming an engineer (though most engineers seldom do anything truly useful, but rather function to keep the corporate cogs well lubricated and turning).
I have seen many excellent engineers strive to become 'management', get a half-assed MBA from some second-rate college, and then become mediocre, marginally competent 'managers'. Why do people tend to denigrate what they are truly good at yet envy that which they have no talent for?
The only sort of engineering I could ever get enthused about was the sort of grass-roots stuff practiced in and around the Victorian Era. Things were new, possibilities seemed endless, and faith in the wonders of technology was absolute. Though we soon learned better, that still must have been a great time to be an engineer. I also admire those heady days of the early space race.
But today, who knows? Engineers have very little to do with the control of resourses and are thus not in a position to call the shots. Those who do call the shots (mostly politically oriented lawyers and financial types) are generally completely ignorant of scientific physical realities.
All this hardly matters, as we are going have a whole mess of very talented unemployed engineers before too long.
My experience was a bit better. That is probably a result of computing being a fairly new field which is still rapidly changing. It is also an important core competency for much of engineering and science. But it too is becoming more tedious. Where before we were attacking new things, and a few clever ideas could take you far. More and more now it is just complexity wrapped in complexity, covering up more complexity.
Joule,
I disagree on many levels. The only thing I didn't enjoy about being an undergraduate engineering student was the astronomical cost. The academic side of it all was fascinating and has provided me alot of knowledge I feel could help me survive fairly soon. The challenge of studying long hours was part of the reason I went.
In the not so distant future, those skill will become far more valuable than accounting or finance. Money does you no good if you don't know how to effectively utilize resources in a tangible way. Call it leverage. The leverage that engineers have over management will increase very soon, especially considering the shortages that we're talking about. This might first be manifest by increases in salaries relative to other positions.
Just from an ethical standpoint it was better to choose engineering over finance or management. The fact is, the future doesn't come easy, and it takes intelligence, diligence, and planning to make it happen.
I'm confident that my mundane cube shaped day-cage will soon be replaced by something far more stimulating (albeit far more perilous).
Ah, the optimism of youth. As an older engineer, my experience says you're wrong. The guys presently with the prestige and the money will not go silently into the night; as joule said the remains of engineering as a profession will be thrown overboard to keep the financial types afloat. The coming wave of layoffs should show pretty quickly where we're going.
If you get stuck with Victorian-era technology, don't complain! ;)
I must not know most engineers, then. Most every engineering job I've ever seen anyone do was involved with making things work to legal requirements and customer expectations, and hiding the details so it all looks seamless and is easy to operate.
Those realities are coming to the fore, and enterprises led by people who neither understand them nor have advisors who do will fail miserably unless they are subsidized.
And lots of them have garages. Expect interesting results.
Interesting comments Don. I have been teaching Senior Science and Maths for over 30 years and I'm afraid the situation is bleak. Interest in the former has been minimal for many years as students have taken the soft options of service industries or
economics- even those that went onto Science-related degrees ended up being stolen
by the finance industries' promise of high wages and status. Perhaps some retraining
for the best of these may offer some promise.
I loved maths and science in high school, and am at present doing an undergrad in Actuarial studies. It's true that my decision to choose the more finance based maths was purely based on money, I could have chosen pure maths or a science degree. I regret my choice now as I've realized how utterly pointless and what a sham finance really is. Hoping to now do a Masters in something that would actually be useful in a post-peak world but there is the sense that I've wasted precious time. If I'd known back than what I know now...sigh. Lots of my friends are not getting jobs in finance/ banking, really smart guys ,their talent wasted on a field thats set to diminish greatly.
Lets see; there are 6 billion people on earth and increasing at some ridiculous rate, but companies can't hire people in the following fields:
nurse, pilot, doctor, plumber, oil field worker, cobbler, petroleum geologist, farm workers, wind turbine installers & maintenance, solar installers, construction, carpenters, bricklayers, electricians, labourers, engineers (nuclear, civil, chemical).
That took 30 seconds, I suspect others could add a few.
Just curious, but what are all those people doing?
Are there that many estheticians, video game designers and stock brokers out there?
A very large fraction of the 6 billion are literally not intelligent enough to perform the high-end jobs (national average IQ as low as 70, when you need a minimum of 120 for a technical job). You can get all the rough carpenters and landscapers you want (a lot have gone back to Mexico). Petroleum geologists and nuclear engineers are going to be kinda scarce unless and until the country stops treating them as disposable commodities which can be fired and hired to suit the immediate market conditions; people with the brains to do those jobs also have the brains to go where they're treated better.
I know of another line of work in the U.S. critical to the functioning of civilization, and is a kind of energy harvesting, where the workforce is aging (average 60 years old) and training of replacements is poor, with an additional disadvantage...the pay is horrible.
Anybody want to guess what that profession might be?
That's easy. Farming.
Undertaker.
Antoinetta III
Soylent Green...in the movie, the Soylent Corporation Oceanographic Survey Report of 2025 was kept secret from the people and documented that the oceans were dying. In real world 2008 these reports have been public and document phenomena that are actually happening.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/03/science/03fish.html
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,877387,00.html
http://www.motherjones.com/news/featurex/2006/03/oceans_index.html
There are more, go find them yourself if you are interested.
But, we are successfully distracted by bread and circuses: Pro and College sports, Olympics, video game consoles, MP3 players, MySpace, FaceBook, the 'War on Christmas', the continual war on gay people and the abortion controversy, White House Intern BJs, Survivor and Dancing with the Stars, the latest scoop on what Caribou Barbie said/did/wore/will do, etc.
Once again, as with sustainable energy issues, the Democrat sheeple have been bitten in the arse one too many times by the opposition and will not push any kind of meaningful environmental agenda...for blowhards such as Limbaugh will use their three-hour-per day sermons to the brain-dead to scream about left-wing, liberal, feminazi, environazi, socialists, communist, secret Muslim extremists out to take away your GOD GIVEN RIGHTS (Rush's shouting, not mine) to consume all you like because the 'free market' of glorious capitalism, in the greatest country on Earth, as favored by GOD, will prevail. And the flocks in the pews in the great, mall-sized mega-churches will sing hallelujah and revel in the gospels of prosperity (He who believeth in me will surely get a McMansion and a new SUV!)! And the folks in the tiny little churches in the sticks will say that God will provide, and if he doesn't, it must be time for Revelation anyway, and the believers will all go to a better place and this Earth matters not.
Of course we don't have enough scientists and engineers. Two broad forces have killed them off: 1) Self-absorption in the lazy pleasures of consumption, avoiding any semblance of hard work studying science and engineering, and of fast-track make a buck (wall-street, import tainted crap from PRC prison laborers and child laborers)management/finance career fantasies promulgated by the business mags and by Hollywood movies, and 2)The disavowing of science by the fundamentalist religious right.
Gutter bums.
But I expect to see a bunch of young folks joining us any day now.
Rat
... critical to the functioning of civilization?
Absolutely. Who else will beautify yer cities by picking up cigarette butts and recyclable litter like beer bottles?
Future jobs = expansion of the electrical grid.