<A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting The Oil Drum Countdown to $200 oil (12) - betting on Yergin>
<DrumBeat: November 10, 2008 DrumBeat DrumBeat: November 12, 2008>

208 comments on DrumBeat: November 11, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version

eastender on November 11, 2008 - 12:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You say:

The trend is a 5% increase in imports

Platts says:

In the first 10 months of this year, China's crude imports reached 151.15 million mt (3.65 million b/d), an increase of 10.6% over 136.67 million mt (3.67 million b/d) in the same 2007 period, according to the customs figures.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Pitt the Elder on November 11, 2008 - 9:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The trend is a 5% increase in imports

Typo on my part; I'd been talking about demand increase, but accidentally switched to typing "imports" in the middle. Thanks for catching that; my mistake.

To reiterate: the trend is that China's demand is growing at about 5%/year. As the country produces about half of the oil it consumes, their imports are growing at about 10% per year, far below the 28% that BrianT was implying.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
el zorro on November 12, 2008 - 2:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Just to correct the arithmetic...

If consumption increases by 5.6%, and production increases by 0.8%, this does not imply that imports increased by (5.6 - 0.8) = 4.8%
In fact, imports will increase by a percentage much higher than the percentage increase in consumption. The proper calculation for the increase is:

change in imports = (current consumption - current production) / (previous consumption - previous production)

In this case, this is (7.94 - 3.82) / (7.52 - 3.79) = 10.5%

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
elwoodelmore on November 12, 2008 - 8:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

i propose ((7.94-3.82)-(7.52-3.70))/(7.94-3.82)= 0.095 = 9.5 %

or (4.12-3.73)/4.12 = 9.5%

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
eastender on November 12, 2008 - 2:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No prob, it happens to even the best of us some of the time. ;-)

The remarkable thing here (i.e.: the story behind the story) is this:

July imports were 8% lower than the average of the 3 months before July and 12% lower than that of the 3 months after July. In other words: consumption in China is not slowing one bit, financial turmoil and deteriorating economies elsewhere notwithstanding.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
rainsong on November 12, 2008 - 7:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Check eastenders math in reporting the Platts story. It would not pass with a Certified Public Accountant.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

208 comments on DrumBeat: November 11, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version