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15 comments on And for those who missed this . .

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Dave Cohen on September 8, 2005 - 2:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Re: "can the technology do this? Are we close to this tech being here, or is it going to be like fusion energy?"

According to what I've read from HO and others about EOR [enhanced oil recovery] technology, the answer to both your questions is NO. There appears to be a double-edged sword here. EOR (e.g. H20 or CO2 injection, horizontal drilling) may lead to short-term gains but can also lead to faster and steeper declines later. This depends a lot on the peculiar geology of the field in question. Apparently J wrote a post on this sometime back with respect to offshore deep sea drilling that showed that these fields deplete fast and EOR techniques do not help. Matt Simmons is of the opinion that all available new technologies have already been deployed and there is nothing new "on the shelf" that will make miracles happen to offset decline rates.
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mw on September 8, 2005 - 4:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Plus we already have CO2 injection and horizontal drilling being used; still the majors are producing less.

Investment is up; drilling rig deployment is at or near record historic highs in many parts of the world -- yet new finds are not as yet delivering on the gusher(s) Yergin's thesis needs to come true.

And some experienced oil and gas CEO's are saying in public that they don't believe there are new Saudi Arabias just waiting to be discovered, with most of the world having been under the microscope for some time now.

It may be that all our new technology has ALREADY been staving off peak oil... i.e. without satellites and advanced seismic etc etc we'd have peaked long ago.

When it comes to finding stuff underground that can be extracted, at some point there will be a peak... that is inevitable. Its possible we are already good enough at finding and extracting it to have largely maxed out the planet.

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droskill on September 8, 2005 - 7:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I appreciate everyone taking the time to reply. I agree that the peak is coming regardless of technology - just curious if it was likely to offset the losses as BusinessWeek feels.

Are there similar charts or graphs for American oil sources?  Or perhaps for Saudi oil (I know their data is questionable)?

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Heading Out on September 8, 2005 - 8:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There are some things that you can do with EOR that will actually enhance overall oil recovery - doing liquid CO2 injection is one of them.  But it will only work in certain situations, and you need a power station that wants to find a way of getting rid of its exhaust to make it work economically. (Pumping the gas into the middle of the North Sea was a non-starter not because it wouldn't work, but because getting the gas there and liquifying it cost too much). maybe you have given me the incentive to do my "Oil Companies and Technology" Post - so I'll go write it for tomorrow.

HO

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MikeTor on September 9, 2005 - 2:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Peak Oil theory is not just a theory, it has already been proven true in most countries. Nearly every year another country is added to the list of those who passed peak.
Two links on that

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/blanchard/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/nations/2004/

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