40 comments on IEA World Energy Outlook for 2008 Is Out - The Oil Drum Analysis Will Begin Soon
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40 comments on IEA World Energy Outlook for 2008 Is Out - The Oil Drum Analysis Will Begin Soon
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GAIA Host Collective
I'm not sure I understand the relationship between giant fields reserves and decline rates and why this should be so but the implications sounds v. important.
-If they are making a relationship then am I correct in assuming that if only smaller finds are to be found then these -by implication- would have much faster decline rates? I.e. even if we found "4 new Ghawars" worth but in the form of 10,000 small fields they would peak and decline much quicker than if we found 4 giant fields...
[Edit] OK, I just had a look at slide 7 of the press release: smaller fields declining very fast with average of 14% (!!) in 2007 for non-OPEC and the AVERAGE rising from 6.7 to 8.6%... (I can't wait for the TOD analysis 'cus these look like some scary numbers to me...)
Regards, Nick
That’s Ok noutram. I’ve been a petroleum geologist for almost 34 years and I’m sure I understand them either. I can offer a couple of points though. Enhanced recovery techniques do require a minimum mass to be practical. Very small fields might not have such measures taken. But I suspect the real basis for this “relationship” is that mega fields are just so big that there are an insufficient number of wells to deplete them as fast as smaller fields.
But the decline rate of any field is a function of the energy driving the oil to the producing wells. Two main types of drive: water drive (water pushing out the oil that floats on top of it) and pressure depletion (like shaking warm bottle of soda and cracking it open real fast). In water drive reservoirs like Ghawar the KSA has been pumping billions of barrels of water into it for decades in order to improve recovery and maintain high flow rates. Thus a field may show little of no decline for many years. But eventually the water level will reach the perforations in the producing wells and a very rapid decline will begin. This is the natural process and will occur whether a field produces 1 million bo or 10 billion bo. That’s not just my opinion: its physical law taught in every reservoir engineering school in the world.
And it happened in another mega field (Cantarell in Mexico). A huge pressure depletion reservoir which maintained a high flow rate thanks to PEMEX pumping huge amounts of nitrogen into it. But it is now showing a 35%+ decline rate according to PEMEX. And that’s how the late stage depletion grows in all such projects regardless of the original reserve size.
Not trying to put you on the spot but as a practicing geologist can you explain why oil reservoirs show a probability distribution that is 1/Size2?
Or do geology schools never teach or theoretically discuss why a certain statistical distribution comes about?
Web,
Explain "1/Size2" please.
That is telling. The volume size probability distribution goes as 1 divided by the square of the size of the reservoir. That means that for reservoirs that are 10 times larger than a particular size, they are 100 times more rare.