... "Yet to be developed".

Access to reserves and uninterrupted access of crude to the production chain are big question marks and are basically non- calculable.

- There are reserve and discovery areas that are inaccessible because of political/treaty disputes such as areas of the Arctic, the Antarctic, 'borderland' areas surrounding Russia, Taiwan Strait and the oceans surrounding the Falkland Islands.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Article.aspx?id=1019

http://www.articlearchives.com/environment-natural-resources/ecology-env...

http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_printable&report_id=439&language_...

- There is supply that cannot be delivered efficiently because of interception risks, or where (substantial) risks are added to costs such as increasing piracy and militancy within and offshore Nigeria, offshore Somalia and Kenya, West Africa, and Indonesia. Piracy seems to be increasing worldwide demanding increased resources from developed countries to combat it. There is another discussion regarding piracy here on TOD;

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4778#comments_top

- There are attacks on pipelines and other petroleum installations by militant groups; in Turkey, within the Caucausus region, Central Asia, in Iraq and occasionally within Saudi Arabia, itself.

http://www.twq.com/08spring/docs/08spring_riedel.pdf

- There are reserve areas that are questionably accessible because of climate; besides the polar reqions, the Gulf of Mexico and offshore South East Asia have been swept by increasingly powerful storms. There was a cyclone in the Arabian Sea last year, the most iontense ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, which cost significant loss of life and property in Oman and Iran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gonu

All of these non- geological forces work to leverage the physical extraction, refining and delivery process. Costs are costs and have to paid from somewhere, including less funding available for exploration, or exploration/development is postponed until an area is pacified.