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157 comments on The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates
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157 comments on The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates
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Rune - Good work on the "wetness" question. My sense of the report is not that IEA did detailed and defensible calcs to come up with their projection for growth in NGLs (or EOR, or other new supply), but rather that they attempted to kick the question of additional supply into areas where the data is fuzzier and projections are harder to prove or disprove than regular conventional crude. I'd be willing to bet that they had no such explanation for increasing wetness of produced gas. But that's just a gut level guess.
ChrisN, thank you.
I think you are on to something when you refer to possible more “fuzziness” surrounding NGL’s.
From what I have seen of documentation on NGL’s (and there is little available in the public domain) it should be expected that Nat Gas will become drier with time.
The other factor affecting NGL production (extraction) is volume of Nat Gas produced. Towards 2030 IEA projects a big increase in Nat Gas production from Middle East (and other OPEC members). This could happen, the reserves are there, but Nat Gas in the Middle East is increasingly sour (H2S and CO2) which requires treatment before it enters the market (either by pipeline or LNG).
This suggests heavier investments in the production of Nat Gas, and with the ongoing credit crunch in mind, it might also be that the capital will not be there at the pace desired.