In my opinion, many humans can be educated to be Bayesian thinkers. Indeed, that was one of the main goals of a course in informal logic (critical thinking) that I taught for more than twenty years.

One can view various scenarios sequentially and put subjective probabilities on each one. For example, I put the odds of inflation at sixty percent and the odds of deflation at forty percent; either scenario is plausible, but I think inflation is somewhat more likely than deflation.

I suspect that petroleum geologists, in making their recommendations to "Drill over there, not right here" are using Baysian thinking to come up with their recommendations.

Of course I agree that Bayesian thinking does not come "naturally," because we want and crave certainty. Nevertheless, I think the proper higher education can go a long way to create many Bayesian thinkers. For estimating future Saudi oil production I think Bayesian approaches are a sine qua non.