Don - I totally disagree that we are Bayesian thinkers. We can be taught to THINK in Bayesian terms, which is an advantage when nothing else is going on, and yes, for estimating future Saudi oil production, we SHOULD think in Bayesian terms. But once someone in the room or debate feels politically or otherwise threatened, etc. all Bayesian priors go out the window. I will discuss this in my belief systems post. Sorry to sidetrack discussion - lets focus on IEA KSA.

And to Datamunger, even though I disagree about Bayesian wiring, I do agree that if the Prince of Saud can access and act upon thoughts about his unborn grandchild (intergenerational equity), then that changes the game....