You've described my house; passive solar, 2kW PV (8.1 kWhr yesterday), edible landscape with modest garden (20'x80'), rainwater capture, etc.

The challenges:
- Cultural inertia: who's going to be the first on their block to have a survivalist landscaping?
- Cutting down the first ornamental/shade tree.
- Learning gardening and horticulture
- Learning how to pick tree stock for wide range of fruiting dates
- Having enough seed and tree stock to go around
- Being convinced that food storage is needed

Once we do enter the Great Depression 2.0, a lot of the cultural inertia will disappear. Witness the change in attitudes on spending in the last 2-3 months, already. It is now "in" to be frugal, according to several articles I've seen and many people I've talked to.

Learning how to do all these things is the biggest challenge. Our generation is very ill prepared for this. Still, given how we coped back in the Great Depression, and in WWII, it is my belief that humans are more resilient than given credit for.

I understand what you are saying, though the changes we've seen have taken us back to 2004 levels of consumption, which is not a major lifestyle change, nor do I suspect most people are making much in the way of changes. Given the way oil prices have come down, along with food prices, the momentum has shifted somewhat, though with more people out of work, demand is likely to stay down, and more people will be starting "Victory Gardens".

Let's add a few more thoughts on the challenges:

Food
- Overcoming cultural inertia: who's going to be the first on their block to have a survivalist landscaping?
- Cutting down the first ornamental/shade tree.
- Learning gardening and horticulture
- Learning how to pick tree stock for wide range of fruiting dates
- Having enough seed and tree stock to go around
- Being convinced that food storage is needed (and actually doing it)
- Being convinced to practice humanure management (and actually performing it)

Energy
- Having money to make even a modest change in energy efficiency
- Having money to produce even a modest amount of energy
- Difficulties renovating to effective passive solar (though solar window boxes can help)
- Enough solar hot water heaters and installers to go around
- Enough PV to go around
- Transportation to and from work, school, grocery/pharmacy, shopping, etc

The theoretically higher energy balance of suburbia must be viewed in light of the logistical problems its implementation would be held back by. Unless there were a massive Apollo-like effort to incentivize and greatly accelerate production, then all the positives you mentioned would not be attainable for at least a few decades.

One other energy input to add is solar cooking.

This seems a bit incoherent.

A scenario where there is enough energy so that having "Transportation to and from work, school, grocery/pharmacy, shopping, etc" isn't nearly pointless, seems like it should at least vaguely resemble Business-As-Usual-lite. Many people would be up to their eyeballs full-time, more or less as they are now. Not that this is even new: in bygone times, the town blacksmith, tanner, baker, or shopkeeper, was not necessarily also a farmer. The number of hours in a day is more rigidly finite than even the oil supply.

So maybe I lost the memo, but is there some newfangled Great Time Piñata In The Sky that people who are already up to their eyeballs can whack on for great gouts of spare time and energy in which to add on a whole new occupation involving "gardening and horticulture", "how to pick tree stock for wide range of fruiting dates", and your endless list of other laborious stuff to be dredged up from the dead past? What would be the need? What would even be the desire, given that in the scenario, one's time might well be spent far more fruitfully at the "work" one is being "transported to and from"? Haven't people been trading since long before Roman times?

And let's not forget that your illustration seems to show a scene from the very early 20th century. In those days, the population as a whole was far younger, and therefore far more able to cope with hard physical labor, than it is now.

Oh, and why are those guys in the picture wearing suits? I don't recall ever seeing any evidence that people wore suits to do farm work.

Re. time....

The average U.S. household has a TV on for 8 hours per day, with each person consuming ca. 3 hours.

Re. suits...

Good question. Could it be that they knew a photographer was showing up and since that was such a big deal in those days they wore their Sunday best?

I have seen a family picture of my grandfather fishing in his Sunday suit with an apron on. That was the norm back in the early part of the 1900's.

This reminds me of an incident happend in Romania this summer: there were some catastrophic floods in one remote area and the President decided to go see the disaster scene.
Of course media was all over the place, direct TV coverage and whatnot. As he descended from the helicopter wearing action outfit (e.g. rain jacket and rubber boots, the local mayor came and greeted him. The only thing was, well, the mayor was wearing suit...
The President verbally slammed the poor guy, in front of all those TV cameras and sent him back home to change to a more appropriate outfit (at least in his vision).
The trick here is that for that mayor, in that godforsaken village, the arrival of the President was once-in-a-life-time event and he decided to honor it by wearing his best suit.
Obviously, this was not fully appreciated by the "guest"...

Just as it is happening now (and it is uncertain when it will end), a PO decline will create more and more unemployment. I believe to cling to hopes that life will go on just like it has with a 4-8% oil decline is completely unrealistic.

People have lots of time now to do other things: Nielsen Media Research said Monday the average American watches 142 hours of TV in a month, which is close to 5 hours per day. A little fresh air and exercise in those 5 hours would drastically lower the obesity rate.

in bygone times, the town blacksmith, tanner, baker, or shopkeeper, was not necessarily also a farmer.

It depended on how prosperous or bleak the times were, so I don't think you can make a blanket statement. And it all depends on how high the unemployment rate is; the Great Depression saw unemployment rates of 25%. In 1943, "some 20 million victory gardens produced more than 40 percent of the vegetables grown for that year's fresh consumption".[1]

And let's not forget that your illustration seems to show a scene from the very early 20th century. In those days, the population as a whole was far younger, and therefore far more able to cope with hard physical labor, than it is now.

During the war, the young men were off fighting.

Oh, and why are those guys in the picture wearing suits? I don't recall ever seeing any evidence that people wore suits to do farm work.

Seems those were the blacksmith, tanner, baker, or shopkeeper wanting to look good for the rare picture-taking event.

Not all 5 hours can be worked in the field. First of all, many of those hours are after dark, which limits how much can be accomplished, but more importantly, many of those hours aren't exclusive: They are watching TV, and eating dinner and things like that...

(Not that that changes your point, there are more than enough hours that people are sitting on the couch watching TV during the day for them to farm a little bit of land.)

I believe to cling to hopes that life will go on just like it has with a 4-8% oil decline is completely unrealistic. Aside from this being simply a belief, if a plausible one, it seems a bit of a straw-man. If life is indeed no longer going on "just like it is [now]", but is nonetheless sufficiently close that "transportation to and from work, school, grocery/pharmacy, shopping, etc" is at issue, then all this hard labor seems a rather superfluous waste that might be better spent on, say, more productive adaptations to less oil. OTOH if things are allowed to go so far that all this hard labor is truly unavoidable, then such transportation seems unlikely to be a huge issue, as we will be in a doom scenario such as 'cjwirth' harps on ad nauseam, with little or no "work, school, grocery/pharmacy, shopping, etc" to be transported to. That's what I see as incoherence in the list of points.

...in bygone times, the town blacksmith, tanner, baker, or shopkeeper, was not necessarily also a farmer. That's rather hedged, not a terribly blanket statement. However, and for example, IIRC, at the historic site of Bethabara in North Carolina, I was told that about 1/3 of the working-age population was engaged in occupations other than farming, circa 1800. I was quite astounded since that was quite inconsistent with what I was taught in school, namely that the percentage of farmers back then was in the high 90s, but there it is. I suspect that what I was taught, and what I sometimes read here, owes a little something to a synthetic romantic mythology, some of it propounded by people riding philosophical hobby horses about matters such as "the simple life" - and seeing nothing at all odd about riding them over some of the most complex machines ever built - Web servers!

During the war, the young men were off fighting. Yes. And somewhat older men were farming, but with great assistance from priority fuel rations and some assistance from younger men with agricultural draft exemptions. And in either war, the currently tremendous population of frail people in middle and old age simply did not yet exist. Back then, they were still carried off in great numbers by infectious disease or its treatment - penicillin was not yet in wide use and the sulfa drugs had nasty side effects and serious issues with effectiveness - something which was often still greatly aggravated by heat or cold. For good and sufficient reasons, "flu" derives from "influenza di freddo", and likewise, a good deal of European poetry [scroll down to "In Winter"] and literature muses on the terrors of deadly winter.

A little fresh air and exercise... Another straw man, perhaps. We're not discussing raising a few luxury vegetables of negligible caloric value as a hobby - which is what, if the truth be told, even many of the victory gardeners were up to. We're discussing a great deal of time-consuming back-breaking work, not just "a little fresh air" (hard labor to be done by people who in at least a good many cases are plopping down in front of the TV in the evening and pretending to watch through half-closed eyes because they're knackered out.) So I still think that as a prescription, it's rather less suited to the population of 2008 than it might have been to the youthful population of the early 20th century.

...wanting to look good for the rare picture-taking event. LOL.

You seem to need to go through a lot of gyrations and false dichotomies in order to give us the impression that having a garden is nigh-on impossible for most people. And you seem to imply that those who were not farmers a long time ago did not have gardens, though provide nothing to back such an assertion.

We're discussing a great deal of time-consuming back-breaking work, not just "a little fresh air" (hard labor to be done by people who in at least a good many cases are plopping down in front of the TV in the evening and pretending to watch through half-closed eyes because they're knackered out.)

Gardening and horticulture doesn't have to be back breaking work, it depends upon how you approach it and how much you tackle. I don't think you've done much gardening yourself, but perhaps you could inform us otherwise (and the type of garden, if you have one). Those with mulched raised beds, for example, would be able to tell you that endless heavy weeding is not a given with gardening. Nor would those who use the Fukuoka method, among others. Growing nut trees requires little in the way of heavy work, and with a smart selection of cultivars, 97% of that comes at harvest time.

Those people who spend the day behind a desk and behind a wheel would be invigorated with some physical activity, instead of just vegetating in front of the boob tube. Note that the 1918 flu pandemic attacked those between 12 and 40 the hardest, leaving a much higher percentage of the very young and the elderly. And it's not like all of the people living now are old and useless; I had an aunt who gardened well into her 80s until passing just recently.

My great-grandmother gardened into her 90's. Not a couple of petunias, but actually growing food.

The one third of the working population not farming were men. The women and children were tending the gardens where they had the land to do so.

My grandfather was a sheriff who tended a large garden. You are making claims about things you know not; the cultural inertia mentioned above shows through clearly in your words.

in bygone times, the town blacksmith, tanner, baker, or shopkeeper, was not necessarily also a farmer.

Already I've heard of some people in the UK basically going from house to house, offering to grow a garden in the back in return for a share of the produce. This has been working out quite nicely. It gives a job to someone who might otherwise be unemployed. It lets some specialization of work occur (the gardener does gardening all day, so becomes very good at it, while the homeowner specializes in something else). Both of them benefit, and make use of a resource (the land) that would otherwise lie fallow.

You see? Humans are a lot more resilient than some give us credit for. The main thing we need to avoid is a sudden collapse, something that I see as less likely than some doomers suggest. If we are smart, we can navigate a more gradual path of energy descent, allowing for these things to arise sometimes spontaneously, sometimes in a planned way, without massive amounts of social chaos and death.

Many people in the early 19th century had multiple jobs. My grandfather was a wheat farmer in Minnesota, and also built and repaired houses. He was a fine carpenter. My parents lived through the Great Depression right after being married in 1933. They sustained themselves raising chickens for meat and eggs, and had a 1/2 acre vegetable garden for themselves. I was taught how to garden at an early age. I was born in 1940, and by 1943, I was removing rocks from the garden and stacking them for removal in a wheelbarrow. I planted alongside my parents for as long as they had a garden, which was about when my mother went to work in 1952. Ah, inflation was already beginning to make it necessary for two in a household to work. I have gardened every year of my life, and enjoy producing about 25% of my vegetables. Anyone can learn to do it, and it improves your health, and people that garden (per info from my doctor)live longer. Next year I will grow much more, as I am seeing hyper-inflation in grocery prices. I don't know why people don't think they can work full time and garden. I did it all my life. At the end of the season, you either freeze or can your produce, and enjoy it through the winter. I do not use pesticides, and can be sure that what I eat will not poison me, and will not have e-coli bacteria. My suggestion is to start with a small veggie patch, that you feel is manageable, and I guarantee you will want to increase its size each year. There are good books out there on managing your garden, and proper use of compost and compost tea, and rotating your crops and how to encourage pollinating insects, and discourage destructive insects. Have fun with this for heaven's sake. It will become a necessity in the future.

Hi Timberdoodle,

I wonder if you would comment on the difficulty many have mentioned here of the topsoil having been removed from many of the more recent suburbs, and their just having a bit of grass on top of a thin layer of soil over rubble?

This is obviously not a good situation, but just how daunting would it be?
Would raised beds be the answer? How would you approach things?

It depends how you're starting out.

If you're starting out broke and with nothing, then the lack of topsoil is a real problem. But this is unlikely.

If you're starting out with an income and buying food, and a bit of lawn and a tree or two somewhere close by, then the combination of kitchen and garden waste will make good compost, which can be used to enrich the soil. You're using your income and effort to import fertility.

Also, the soil on these suburban lots is not usually over rubble or stone. Often it's over sand or clay. This makes things a lot easier. Good black loamy soil that you see in all the gardening tv shows and magazines is made up of clay, sand and organic matter. So if you have one you can add the other two.

This can be done in a month with a lot of money and labour, or done over 2-4 years if you're just using the waste from kitchen and garden.

So maybe I lost the memo, but is there some newfangled Great Time Piñata In The Sky that people who are already up to their eyeballs can whack on for great gouts of spare time and energy...

Here, let me give you the part of the memo you missed. *MILLIONS OF PEOPLE ARE UNEMPLOYED* ok, now go back to your BAU life.

Maybe I'm stuck in a BAU mindset, but being unemployed or underemployed doesn't pay the bills. Unless you plan to live rent-free with still-employed family members or to squat in your home until you're kicked out, I don't see how it'll work. Maybe there's some way to distribute vacant home and vacant lots to millions of employed to put them all to work, but I don't know how myself.

You say you don't know, but don't assume that means no one else will find a way. We mentioned one way already several times. People without jobs could offer their time as gardeners to others who still have jobs, in return for a share of the produce. I would presume people that still had jobs might also be a bit hard up, so they would welcome the extra food in return for... a piece of their lawn that wasn't doing anything. The person doing the gardening would then be "self-employed" and get a cut as well.

I know people will find a way, but there are a few big unknowns to me: how the relative pay scales of various professions get rejuggled and how that relates to the cost of housing. Obviously with hyperinflation, a $500,000 mortgage suddenly becomes *very* affordable. With deflation, we'll get lots of vacant properties and homeless people. Maybe we'll get more flexible about squatting. The value of someone's time spent gardening would very much depend on how hard up people are for food.

Q:"How will everyone find the time?"

A: "Everyone" won't. More likely, those with a lot more time than money/land will get into small-scale "garden sharecropping", and offer to raise a garden on their too-busy neighbor's land in exchange for half the produce (which could then be sold at neighborhood markets to other too-busy neighbors). This is a niche that in all likelihood WILL be available and common in every community. We've already seen some postings in Drumbeats over the past few months of several different variations on this theme starting up.

For those holding down more typical 40-50 hr/wk jobs, that leaves lots of time on evenings (more daylight in the evenings during growing season) and weekends for gardening.

As for that "back breaking work", the really back breaking part is in the initial ground prep. There will be people that can be hired to help with that if need be, or there still will be fuel for rotary cultivators for quite a while yet. Once a good garden bed has been established and plenty of organic matter incorporated, the work isn't all that back breaking at all. Hint: use plenty of mulch, that will keep the weeds down a lot, sparing you a lot of that "back breaking weeding". Another hint: invest in an "azada" (or grub hoe) and a broadfork to do most of your annual soil prep - much less "back breaking". Yet another hint: if bending over/kneeling is really difficult, consider gardening in raised beds or containers.

there still will be fuel for rotary cultivators for quite a while yet.

There will be electricity and solid fuel for gasogenes even if liquids are hard to find.

Why are people tagging this downwards, instead of replying and refuting the claims, which paraphrase as:

- If people have trouble paying for food, they will be more receptive to growing it.
- Anecdotally many people are trying to cut back on spending
- Learning is the biggest challenge (This is possibly the least defensible claim)
- The current generation is not well prepared
- A belief statement, with examples, that humans are commonly underestimated. I agree with this claim, because they are underestimated, both in the low expectations we have of ourselves and each other, and in the portrayal of the average person on TV.

Would any of the down-clickers care to comment?

"If people have trouble paying for food, they will be more receptive to growing it."

I'm not sure why you would want or expect people to refute this. If peopel are hungry, I'm guessing they will do whatever it takes to get food. The first response will be theft but grocers will tire of this pretty quickly and either shut the doors or restrict entry with armed guards and dogs (the dogs couldbe vulnerable after a while too). Abandonment of certain markets by the big grocery chains will be next, leaving people with a lot less choice. Eventually, growing your own becomes one of the few choices left to you.

I agree that that the current generation is ill prepared but so what. Cometh the hour, cometh the man. People are adapting and adjsuting every day. They may not be making huge changes but incrementally moving towards wahtever tehy see as important in life. When energy decline becomes an undeniable reality, people will adjust mcuh faster. Business as usual could be redefined very rapidly when circumstances change.

I keep my ax sharp and busy. Winter is tree chopping time! People aren't paying much attention and the trees have no leaves. Tell the neighbors that the tree you just dropped was full of termites. In the spring, replace it with an apple/cherry/pear/plum appropriate for your climate and be prepared for complements when it blooms in the spring.

This month you should mooch your neighbors curbside leaf piles, mow them to shreds, cart them home, and compost or bury thick layers with some manure.

You raise some excellent points. One comment: the potential shortage of seed and tree stock (as well as locally-adapted expertise) represents a great home business opportunity with a very bright future...

I've had half a mind to start raising various rootstocks and do my own grafting from cuttings from many of my trees.

It's actually not that hard to do. I successfully did this with several different types of citrus and mango trees as a high school project (I lived in the tropics back then).

Like almost anything, though, you can't just do it haphazardly. Research what rootstocks do well in your local climate (and perhaps a zone south of you, in case global warming shifts the zones northward). Especially pay attention to the soil types predominant in the area. Then research the types of fruits that will work well with your rootstocks. Doing the graft successfully takes a bit of practice, but with care even a beginner can have greater than 50% success rate.

That sounds like a good project to start, oh, say, right about now?

Orchardists often buy rootstocks to then graft. A more reliable way post-peak would be to have one's own rootstock growing as a tree, and then propagating cuttings from it. Then grafting on cuttings from properly matched scions to the propagated rootstocks to reduce disease and insect damage.

I'm sorry but that secret is out. Here in Oregon we witnesses a 42% increase in vegetable plant sales this spring 42%!!!!!
Retail nurseries were going outside their normal suppliers to get enough plants. Other categories of plant sales were down but notably trees and shrubs.
Given the robotic transplanting equipment that the larger nurseries have it doesn't make sense to grow vegetable starts - buy seed and wait a little longer.
Trees- grafted or not these take awhile. I would think they are in demand.
Best D

"it doesn't make sense to grow vegetable starts"
Generally I have found that nursery starts are not available for the kinds and varieties that I have found most suitable for food sustainability.

Agreed,
I look for heirloom varieties because they reproduce from seed. I don't know if we are in a plant-snobish area but many varieties of everything is avalable.

As far as starting plants to sell commercially the robotic transplanters are hard to compete with. I hear numbers like 30,000 plants an hour, reducing 24 person crews on 3 - 8 hour shifts to 11 person crews on 2 shifts.

It is interesting as I have tried many different varieties of fruit trees. The most productive apple has been gravenstein which also thrives without the constant spraying that the other ones seem to need here. I'm drawn to the logical conclusion that if needs constant life support with sprays then I don't need it. Same goes for vegetables. Who has the time let alone all the hassle and expense of chemical applications. It is scary to see all the beautiful apples in the supermarket and wonder how much stuff has been applied to them.