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63 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008

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dohboi on November 23, 2008 - 10:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Do you have a source for that? Others (I think rockdoc was one) have claimed that some megaprojects are not economic below $50.

A bigger question is where all the new liquids are coming from. World crude is down by over a million, yet total liquids are up by nearly 2. That means there are some three million in some kind of liquids that make up the gap. According to figure 2, it's not from biofuels. So is it all LNG?

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Rembrandt on November 23, 2008 - 10:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

@Dohboi

My claim and that of others are aligned. I didn't say all, only that most projects will be economic below 40 dollars per barrel. Some megrapojects are indeed not economic below 50 dollars, for example new deep-sea developments in Brazil and Angola. My information comes from various proprietary sources.

- Most of additional liquids in EIA data is LNG (0.5 million b/d since beginning 2005) and unconventional oil (tar sands/extra heavy).

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dohboi on November 23, 2008 - 1:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks, Rembrandt. Yes, I believe rockdoc was specifically talking about the deep sea projects. So current low prices should put a bit of a damper on recent projections of production coming from those sources.

The megaprojects struck me as the last reasonable prospect for a bump up or at least an extension of the plateau for a few more years. If prices stay near or below $50, and if that price cuts into even some of the megaprojects, it seems to me even more likely that we are about to start the slide down the other side of the curve. And of course as the recession worsens, we could yet slip below $40.

Thanks for the confirmation of my suspicion about LNG. Won't tar sands become uneconomical to produce at these prices too?

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Rembrandt on November 23, 2008 - 4:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

@dohboi

Yep, new tar sand projects are also uneconomical at these prices.

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andrew on November 23, 2008 - 9:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

shouldn't all these discussions about X is only viably at $Y oil take into account that the $US hasn't exactly been steady over the last few months, with a large-ish increae in value as "a few" american $ return home?

Also, with less than 1/4 of world oil being sold to america i would think that the weight of the other 75% of the oil use would have a significant effect.

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WebHubbleTelescope on November 24, 2008 - 12:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Is that rockdoc123 from the peakoil.com site? Does he ever make it to TOD to post?

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dohboi on November 24, 2008 - 7:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sorry. I meant rockman who posts regularly here. I haven't heard much from rockdoc of late.

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63 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008

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