<DrumBeat: November 26, 2008 The Oil Drum Drum(stick)Beat: November 27, 2008>

78 comments on Predicting Future Supply from Undiscovered Oil

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sjn on November 26, 2008 - 2:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Shouldn't there also be a minimum delay?

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Sam Foucher on November 26, 2008 - 2:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It could be, you could refined this model and add many more parameters. This model is simply modeling the effect of the oil industry on oil discoveries via a simple linear convolution process by a transfer function. This transfer function can be modified in order to impose a minimal number of years (or months) but there is always the possibility that a shallow onshore field can be brought online fairly quickly.

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WebHubbleTelescope on November 26, 2008 - 4:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, it removes one parameter by assuming always that the standard deviation equals the mean, giving a damped exponential PDF. This means that there is less than a 10% chance of having a latency less than 10% of the mean latency.

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geolog on November 26, 2008 - 8:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

How about rise discovery rate? Is it impossible? Why?
There is new exploration technology which can triple oil discoveries for same money and time-frame as compared with conventional technologies www.binaryseismoem.weebly.com.

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WebHubbleTelescope on November 27, 2008 - 1:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The Dispersive Discovery model assumes an accelerating search space; I started out with a high-order power-law but a rising exponential works as well. So the fact that new and better technology exists for increasing discovery rate, that is well suited to the model. Yet, even though we have these huge increases in search rate per year, we still keep finding fewer and fewer reservoirs on average per year. I keep saying that it is a very conservative predictor in the fact that it assumes large size discoveries are equally likely at any time and that no relenting on the search acceleration is allowed. If you relaxed these considerations, the outlook would be even more grim.

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geolog on November 27, 2008 - 3:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Yet, even though we have these huge increases in search rate per year, we still keep finding fewer and fewer reservoirs on average per year."

You are right indeed. Situation, when exploration well spudding is based on sisemic data only exists for a long time. Today, as it was decades before, oil companies drill mostly dry exploration wells. Drilling success rate doesn’t overcome 25% on average. It means that three dry wells go to waste from each four drilled. It means also that discovery occurs too slowly today, but there is a highly productive exploration technology (Seismo-electromagnetic - SEM) for detection of hydrocarbon deposits. It provides a success rate close to 75%. In other words, 3 productive wells for each dry well. Obviously with the technology like this world oil industry could make three times more oil discoveries then using conventional technology, and this technology won't need more investment,time-frame and so on compare to a conventional one. It would significantly mitigate world energy problems.

Seismics---Prospects---Drilling---Discoveries: one in four
Funding --------project time-----------------------------------------
SEM--------Prospects---Drilling---Discoveries: three in four
www.binaryseismoem.weebly.com

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expat on November 29, 2008 - 2:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You have changed the straw's diameter, not the size of the glass.

Further, to the extent that discovery means 'new,' the wells are still going to be concentrated where the oil is - the problem being, the area of the globe where the oil isn't is pretty well known at this point.

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WebHubbleTelescope on November 29, 2008 - 3:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Right, and the point is that we have more and more efficient ways of analyzing the smaller and smaller places left to discover oil. This is an example of rapidly exploring diminishing returns. A double-whammy, so to speak.

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78 comments on Predicting Future Supply from Undiscovered Oil

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