78 comments on Predicting Future Supply from Undiscovered Oil
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78 comments on Predicting Future Supply from Undiscovered Oil
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GAIA Host Collective
Interesting that the shock model typically discards the "b" term in Pickering's formulation. The problem with this term is that doesn't apply any kind of proportionality, in that big reserves produce more and smaller reserves produce proportionately less. When the reserves go to zero and you still have this term, you are left puzzled and shaking your head. Yet the strangeness of this number for OPEC/SA implies that they must be really cooking the books for reserve accounting, otherwise the "a" term would be much stronger for proportional draw. Another way to think about it is that "a" is the capitalist/greed factor and "b" is a socialist/control term. Yet at some point "b" has to disappear as reservoirs deplete.
Perhaps that's a valid way to look at the terms. I would be able to comment on that more easily if I had the paper.
From the abstract (emphasis added as it pertains to b):
There is not much to go on from that to understand how he derives b but a seems to me self-evident.
So the 'b' term looks like a residual of the fitting process, as it essentially determines the y-intercept of a best fit when they plot P against R.
Yes it could be just a "residual" but in the abstract he suggests that in this case b has meaning — something to do with cost and pricing behavior.