 | The IEA WEO 2008 - Objectivity of the International Energy Agency | The Oil Drum | The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources |  |
222 comments on DrumBeat: November 20, 2008
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222 comments on DrumBeat: November 20, 2008
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What is your reasoning behind the idea of doublings, as opposed to, say, a long-term linear trend?
Of course, any long term exponential rate of increase results in a series of doublings, i.e., Rule of 72, but my characterization was colored by the recent price history, when we went from $63 in June, 2007 to $125 in June, 2008. In any case, I characterized it this way: $25, $50, $100, $200, $400 . . . with the question being the time periods between the doublings.
Having experienced several price declines, I also knew that prices declines are are not only likely, they are basically a virtual certainty. However, I think that the net export model is going to drive prices higher long term.
I'm just glad that we are still in the same house that we had at $20 oil and that I am still in the same office that I had at $20 oil.