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96 comments on IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts using Wikipedia Megaprojects, Dec 2008

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ccpo on November 24, 2008 - 12:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

A 5% decline rate for the existing resource base is assumed as this decline rate was used by the IEA in its Medium Term Oil Market Report, July 2008.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but why aren't the new IEA decline numbers being used in this update? Those would change your charts considerably, no?

Cheers

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ace on December 1, 2008 - 12:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If a 4.5% decline rate is used, then Sam's 2020 forecast would increase from about 58.5 mbd to just over 61 mbd, excluding yet to be sanctioned projects, shown below.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects

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The Dude on December 1, 2008 - 12:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As is explained in the story itself, the rational for utilizing 4.35% is detailed in the TOD article The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates.

Eeery how the observed data is roughly tracking your forecasts. Great work as always, I'd wondered about that ca. 1 mb/d gap before, from simply eyeballing charts.

Minor editorial quibble: there's a big chunk of text in the story which is blocked out, I assume it's your own words though.

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96 comments on IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts using Wikipedia Megaprojects, Dec 2008

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