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96 comments on IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts using Wikipedia Megaprojects, Dec 2008
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96 comments on IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts using Wikipedia Megaprojects, Dec 2008
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In a similar analysis that I conducted, I assumed that new open deep water and redrilled existing oil fields would decrease in oil output by 18% and 10%, respectively, 5 years after they are put into service.
Thus, if a deepwater oil field was put into service in 2005, I assumed that in 2010 that the oil field would begin an 18% decline.
Did you assume something similar which is adequately and justifyably pessimistic (realistic)?
Retsel
Some of the decline rates that I use for deepwater oil fields are very high.
Doing bottom up forecasting, country by country, sometimes requires the use of other factors. For example, Angola has many deepwater fields but Angola is subject to an OPEC quota. In addition, many of future projects in Angola may be delayed because they are uneconomic at current low oil prices.
I also place some importance on statements from state owned oil companies. In Mar 2008, Syanga Abilio, a VP of Sonangol, said that "We are doing our best to maintain our plateau of 2 million barrels, probably until 2014. Our production profile does indicate normal decline (after 2014)".
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSL1883291720080318
In addition, an estimate of a country's ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) and appropriate extraction rates are used to construct a forecast. In the case of Angola, a URR of 20 Gb is used which is from Colin Campbell's Dec 2003 newsletter.
http://www.energiekrise.de/e/aspo_news/aspo/Newsletter036.pdf
Taking everything above into account, the forecast for Angola, mostly deep water now, should have a production profile similar to the chart below.
Another deep water region of significance is USA Gulf of Mexico (GoM). While it is not subject to quota, bad weather plays a role in production. In addition the majority of the remaining proved reserves of USA GoM are located in offshore Louisiana and have been in decline since 2003 at 4.25 Gb to only 3.32 Gb in 2007.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_R1901F_a.htm
The chart below shows of US GoM including deep water and shallow water, representing total remaining proved reserves of 3.5 Gb. Taking into account probable reserves, a remaining URR of 6.7 Gb is used for forecasting purposes.
click to enlarge