Matt Simmons' 5 gigawatt wind farm proposal is astonishing. Unlike the Pickens plan which has a nebulous quality about it, the Simmons' plan is concise and easily debated. I can't wait to see how the numbers from a 5 gigawatt wind farm compare to nuclear. Let the fun begin!

I have a hard time seeing that offshore wind will be a long-term solution. According to the article,

Dagher pointed out that floating structures could be decommissioned relatively easily at the end of their service life, in a projected 20 to 30 years.

I am guessing that these floating structures will be fairly expensive to build. Maintenance in the salt spray will be greater than on shore. The structures will only last 20 to 30 years, and I doubt that we will be able to replace them at that point. At best, we have a temporary solution with a lot of up-front costs.

So what would be a solution?

One of the ironic weakness's of wind power is the inability to produce electricity when winds exceed 55 mph.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/wind_how.html

If that mph limit could be increased via new technology over time, might that improve the odds that the investment required to extend the life of the wind farm is justifiable? A location off the coast of Maine might be one of the few locations that has enough high winds to make that a possibility. Add to that, incremental improvements over time in the overall efficiency of wind towers in winds less than 55 mph and you might have a viable economic reason to extend their life.

BTW, is there already a theoretical limit to wind power generating efficiency?

Yes, although it's not technically an efficiency. Because the work is mechanical, the conversion efficiency of that mechanical motion into electricity can be extremely high.

However, there is a maximum amount of power you can remove from the air and still have air flow given by Betz' Law, and is given by about 59%.

Gail -

In general, stationary floating structures, such as would be used to support a large offshore wind turbine, are neither terribly difficult to build nor all that expensive for their size. It's mainly relatively simple steel fabrication. As far as the problems of maintenance in a salty environment, the human race already has a wealth of experience with that sort of thing ..... they're called ships.

As far as a 20 to 30-year operating life, that is consistent with most types of systems involving heavy machinery, e.g., coal-fired power plants, chemical plants, heavy manufacturing. In reality, these things don't wear out all at once, but some components go before others, so routine maintenance and replacement becomes largely an ongoing thing.

Such an enormous wind farm would most likely be built in phases, anyway, so the replacement schedule would be staggered in a manner that would more or less follow the order in which individual wind turbines went into service. If the wind farm has an energy payback period of say one or two years, and if it lasts 20 to 30 years, in terms of net energy production, that is not such a bad deal. The other nice thing about wind farms is that they are modularized, i.e., you can add a few here and a few there, as you like. You don't have to build it all at once, as is the case of a conventional power plant.

The most serious (and obvious) inherent problem with wind power is the need for energy storage or back-up fossil-fuel power generation to deal with those periods when the wind is insufficient to satisfy electrical demand. Once wind power becomes a certain critical fraction of a grid's total power, it can make it extremely difficult to maintain a stable and reliable supply of electricity. I think this problem is not given enough consideration in some of these grandiose proposed wind projects. It simply won't do to have to shut down a large chunk of the grid during the middle of August because there isn't enough wind for weeks at a time.

Perhaps we should plan to repurpose unneeded global shipping fleets to ammonia-producing wind facilities?

Pumped storage is useful for time of day (and even weekend > weekday) shifting, and GREAT for grid stability (hydro for a number of technical reasons is the best source of power for grid stability) but not seasonal shifting. Seasonal NG, biomass or coal power will be needed to keep the a/cs in Suburbia# humming.

Best Hopes for Pumped Storage,

Alan

# Suburbia is the logical choice for rotating scheduled blackouts. Less critical infrastructure (hospitals, etc.) and twice the per capita consumption.

Alan -

Sure, pumped storage is a very effective practical means of load stabilization. The only hitch is that not too many locales have a topography conducive to building pumped storage.

As the pumped storage reservoir has to i) be quite large even for a modest size power generating facility, and ii) be at a significantly higher elevation than the turbine it will be running, pumped storage systems are generally located in mountainous areas (e.g., Switzerland has a nice big one operating at a head of several thousand feet, Pennsylvania has at least one).

Any place that has a flat terrain, such as all of the Plains states, the Great Lakes area, and most of the South, is not a good candidate for pumped storage. It is simply not practical to build an artificial mountain with a large lake on top of it.

Conceivably, you could go in the opposite direction by having a lake at ground level and putting the water turbine down some deep mine shaft, but then you have the problem of where to store the water on the downstream side, as the receiving reservoir has to be the same size as the upper one.

Try this little exercise: assuming a 200-ft elevation difference and 100% efficiency, calculate the volume of a reservoir capable of providing 8-hours worth of energy storage from a wind farm generating 200MW of power.

Response later (with Tryptophan overdose).

Happy Thanksgiving !

Alan

If my maths are right, I have this:
200 MW for 8 hours is 5.76E+12 joules
200 feet is 60.96 meter (h)
potential energy is mgh, g being 9.81 on earth
So the mass is 9631823545 kg.
1 cubic meter of water being 1000 kg, we need 158002 m2 or 0,15 square km.

I suppose this is not a problem in many countries :-)

PS: Please correct me if I got something wrong.

mehdirah -

Your calculation appears correct ....... for the way you did it. However, you appear to have assumed that that pumped storage reservoir itself is 200 ft deep. Hence, the relatively small area of the reservoir.

In reality, the reservoir would more likely be in the form of a relatively shallow lake, say something with a depth of about 20 ft. In our example, the mean water level of that lake would be 200 ft above the downstream turbine. Thus, the area of that lake would be more like 1.5 square km rather than 0.15 square km.

As natural lakes go, that is not a huge lake, but for something that would have to be built, it would be a large and expensive construction project. And if one had to build an artificial hill 200 ft high to put that lake on top it, it would (by simple inspection) be absolutely prohibitive.

Which was my main point all along, i.e, that the feasibility of pumped storage is highly site-specific.

joule,
No need for pumped storage in Maine, Canada has massive hydro capacity close to NE of US and grid connections already in place. Furthermore Canadian demand is lowest in summer, just when Maine wind farms are likely to need back-up from the North.

The west coast of the US has a near continuous mountain range essentially right on the beach except in Southern California.

I saw mention of another gravity storage solution along the lines of Joule's solution, only water turbines weren't involved. It suggested using deep shafts and massive weights, which would create power by turning a generator when descending the shaft, and surplus power would be used to winch them back to the surface in "recharge" mode.

I think that was me, and the scale of the mass and distance turned out to be impractical for my back yard and budget.

Putting wind farms out in the ocean looks great, especially from a real estate and nimby POV, but sea water is a universal solvent for pretty much everything except plastic. See Pacific Garbage Gyre. If Simmons can make them out of plastic and they don't get loose too often I'll forgive him for not believing in AGW. It'll happen with or without him. My experience with the service life of bearings, steel and anything electrical out at sea leads me to think that he's hoping for a miracle that the marine industry has yet to pull off. Plus it's going to need one hell of an extension cord.

Maybe what I need is a depleted uranium counterweight, major density, so the hole doesn't need to be so deep.

I'm starting to think along the lines of a pyramidal tower, say a hundred feet high, with a turbine on top pulling a DU weight up a central shaft. Good design for flatlands, and the platform on top would be good for major pronouncements and maybe a ritual sacrifice to the wind gods as necessary. Could be a public works project for enemy combatants and the like. Good place to store crops as well.

Best Hopes for Pumped Storage,

They didn't say too much about matching the demand, but implied it would mostly be for wintertime space heating needs. No mention of whether that is resistance heating, or more efficient mechanisms such as air-source heat pumps, or ground source heat pumps. The amount of power needed would dramtaically be reduced with the heat pump technologies, as would better insulation. Presumably these are mainly (pun inteneded) existing structures which already have FF and/or wood based heating systems installed. These could be relegated to backup heat sources (for when it is both cold, and windless), rather than for baseload heating. That way the legacy heating could substitute for storage of wind energy. I am firmly of the belief that significant demand management will play a significant part in our energy future. I think the cost of storing power will be much greater than the cost of adapting to variable supply.

The real issue, is at what cost these resources can be developed. DavaMart assumes pretty high cost for the UKs planned off-shore wind. To be economically viable these would have to be considerably cheaper.

Hi EoS,

Few of us, even those who should know better, appreciate the vastly improved performance of today's air source heat pumps, in particular, those with variable speed inverter drives. Normally speaking, air source heat pumps are sized according to cooling loads because if you oversized a conventional heat pump, you don't get good dehumidification; not surprisingly, the heating performance of an undersized unit come winter suffers appreciably. Inverter drive systems address this issue quite nicely because they continually adjust their output to match demand under a wide range of conditions, thereby ensuring optimal comfort and efficiency.

There's also the misconception that air source heat pumps don't operate efficiently (or at all) at temperatures much below 0C/32F. Simply not true. For example, Mitsubishi's Zuba-Central heat pumps operate down to -30C (-22F) and maintain 100% of their rated heating capacity at -15C/5F and 90% at -20C/-4F. Back up electric resistance heaters? You're joking, right? Even relatively inexpensive ductless units that retail for as little as $2,000.00 CDN offer HSPF ratings as high as 10.0 and 11.0, which translates to a seasonal COP of 3.0 or more (i.e., 1 kWh of electricity equals 3+ kWh of heat).

Cheers,
Paul

Hey HereinHalifax,

Just attended a session on Mitsubishi product lines including MrSlim® Split-ductless Technology.

They have old tech in a new application, i.e. Pulse Width Modulation (PWM), Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM).

One aspect of the sales pitch is for spot heating. They are 410A refrigerant systems.

Lots of innovation in the several lines from HVAC Advanced Products Division.

Hi Robert,

Mitsubishi continues to raise the bar year after year -- their City Multi line kicks ass!

Locally, folks who spent several thousand dollars on pellet stoves are now all madly running around town trying to find pellets, only to come home empty handed. My brother was at a local Home Hardware on the weekend and he tells me there were thirty or more cars lined up in the side yard wanting to buy pellets, and as he was leaving he overheard an employee tell another that they were now down to their last fifty bags.

For more on the pellet shortage, see: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nova-scotia/story/2008/11/26/pellets-panic.html

Also, check out today's CBC Maritime Noon segment at: http://www.cbc.ca/maritimenoon/stories.html

The irony in all this is that ductless heat pump have a lower initial cost and, in addition, a lower operating cost; there are no fuel handling, storage or supply issues; no ongoing cleaning and maintenance requirements; no dust or indoor air quality concerns; they're dead simple to operate (a click of a remote control); far more reliable; provide air conditioning and dehumidification benefits during summer months.... it just doesn't add up.

Cheers,
Paul

their City Multi line kicks ass!

Wow ! you know about that ! I thought it kicked ass too, but figured it was just cause I'm a newbie at this HVAC/R stuff ;)

Wood pellet shortage and then a wood stove ban on the horizon, that's not good.

I agree, very kewl stuff, but it predicates electricity being available. How does your heat pump run without power? Nice to see the reduction in use, but it still is based on something outside to give you power you pay for. Lose your job, and can't pay your electric bill.. heat pump doesn't help much. Heck most pellet stoves now don't run without grid power. We just went 36 hours without power. Had lights and heat just fine. So when the big crash happens you expect to still have grid power? And the ability to pay for it?

Shucks...

Don in Maine

Hi Don,

As you point out, pellet stoves require electricity too, so neither is much good without grid power. Short term: my oil-fired boiler is wired for emergency power and that becomes my primary heat source in the event of an extended power cut; I figure running the generator one or two hours per day will supply enough heat and DHW to keep the pipes from freezing and ensure some degree of comfort. If the boiler or generator should fail or if I exhaust my fuel supplies, I have four propane fireplaces and a propane cook top as a fall back. During the winter months, I try to maintain at least 700 litres of heating oil, 350 litres of propane and 20 litres of [stabilized] gasoline on hand at all times, with perhaps another 50 to 75 litres between the two Chryslers. Long term: my ass is toast.

Cheers,
Paul

I share Gail's concern on long term viability of off-shore wind. I'm no expert but for maintainence and replacement you'll need specialized vessels. I'm not sure if a sailing boat can be fitted to do the job.

Also, the poles are typically made of steel, which is really energy intensive to produce. Or to recicle for that matter.

And of course, the blades are constructed from carbon fiber, meaning good old oil.

In general I still asume that all the so called "alternatives" to FF need an underlying FF infrastructure to produce, install, maintain, epand and decommision. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I think the local grid idea is the best substitution to our current energy problems: some solar electricity, some solar water heating and some wind generation on every premise.

Oil? Wind turbines don't need oil!

There is sometimes more than a tonne of oil in big turbines gearbox, which gives a nice burning when lit.

Must be an electric helicopter. It probably uses the wind turbine on its roof to charge its batteries :)

Lean,
This is a typical response to renewable energy solutions that are being applied and have every prospect of replacing FF in the future.

Apart form the fact that most turbines are not serviced by helicopters, this appears to be a 5MW turbine, that would generate about 15Gwh of electricity per year, enough to replace 2million gallons of oil based fuel. Now how many hours of helicopter flight time is going to be used on this turbine per year, and what does that translate into fuel consumption? 200 gallons/year? 2,000 gallons? A EROI of 1,000-10,000 ( for the helicopter servicing) Of course, most energy used for producing wind turbines is in the steel, again using very little oil but requiring about six months electricity production (from a wind turbine) for electric arc steel furnaces.

When all oil used for heat, land and sea transport is replaced by electricity, their will still be enough oil for lubrication and the occasional helicopter flights. My guess is that that turbine can also be accessed by a ladder up the central tower, as that's standard in most turbines

Here here!

Good comment but it points to one of the main issues facing the transition: its a liquids fuel crisis. Liquid fuels are so energy dense that certain applications are likely to die out or be seriously curtailed as prices will mean current business models simply do not work. A classic example of this will be airlines. Airplanes and helicopters will still be flying in 20 or 30 years but they will be much rarer, I believe this is an inevitable conclusion of lower EROEI.

Nick.

Resources are MUCH better used for one 1 MW (or 2 or 5 MW) wind turbine than thousands of small residential WTs for a number of technical reasons (not enough time ATM to list).

All steps to make WTs can be done using renewable energy, but there is not enough of it/it costs too much (Iceland has a steel smelter using renewable electricity, used to make specialty silicon steel for electrical applications).

Aluminum (>50% from hydroelectricity) can used for many applications.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Hmmm... what about the 1kw windmill I can make using things from the scrap yard?

Cheers

for maintainence and replacement you'll need specialized vessels.

An offshore field of turbines could be like a flip ship. A glorified spar bouy with blades. Towed to position and set up. Put them out, bring them in, service and return. The mooring system would include the power docking. It's not clear to me if one would go straight to electricity - and what type - or maybe to some other intermediary fluid that would drive a turbine cluster. Not my job, man. I do vegetables.

cfm in Gray, ME

The most economical current designs for offshore wind involve turbines on anchored barges. This allows for placement further offshore than with a rigid pole to the seabed, and takes advantage of our expertise with oil derricks to locate the wind power where there is much higher wind speed. Power in wind goes as the cube of the velocity, so increasing wind speed makes the power output vastly better.

More importantly, by using barges, you can take a normal ship and simply tow the entire wind turbine in to shore for onshore maintenance. This is much, much cheaper than hiring a crew and doing offshore maintenance.

Lake Michigan is one of the best (if not THE best) wind resources in the USA. Upper Lake Huron and parts of other Great Lakes (Superior, etc.) are good too.

Great Lakes shipping typically lasts 60 and even 80 years in fresh water.

Most FF power plants have a 30 year depreciation and design life.

Best Hopes for More Wind,

Alan

The lakes vary a lot in terms of average depth however. Superior can be quite deep in some places (over 1000 ft). My recollection is that Huron and Erie tend to be more shallow.

I guess I wonder whether it makes more sense to put the wind turbines on the shore to avoid the added expense of offshore wind...

Alan-- Happy Thanksgiving. I see you never take your eyes off the screen!

Can you make a brief comment about the energy and financial reality of hydrogen vs. ammonia vs. pumped storage vs. batteries in storing peak electrical generation from wind or hydro?

There is a new organization in Oregon that is pimping the idea that peak hydro power can be used to make hydrogen for a New Hydrogen Economy on the Columbia. It smells like grant-bait to me, but I'm no engineer.

There is never any surplus hydropower in the USA NW to produce hydrogen from (decades ago there was a couple of weeks of surplus after heavy rains, they turned down the nuke (Trojan ?) to save fuel).

All existing and future small hydro projects in the lower 48 can find good use in the grid (the highest and best use of electrical energy *IF* we improve efficiency). It would be good to expand transmission capacity to find a home for future/potential BC hydro (mainly in CA, AZ, NV, but also in AB).

Yes, a scam IMO.

Wind, OTOH, has the potential to be built faster than we can build transmission. And it cannot be scheduled like most hydro can. Winter peak, summer minimum generally (good also in spring & fall), so an economic use for surplus/stranded wind electricity (too much wind generated electricity for local consumption and transmission) would be a good thing, perhaps a very good thing.

Ammonia used in Iowa today (example) now comes from Trinidad, etc. where it is produced from otherwise stranded NG. Local seasonal production of ammonia from surplus wind in Iowa is worthy of additional R&D IMHO. (No CO2 generated in ammonia production from stranded wind, unlike NG sourced ammonia).

HV DC and pumped storage can shift wind power for time of day and even weekend > weekday, but not seasonally (spring > summer). For, say, a 50% wind grid (HV DC over North America, 50% of GWh from wind), some economic use in the spring, fall and perhaps winter for surplus wind would be needed for, perhaps, 3%-5% of total wind generation.

Best Hopes for Turkey with friends,

Alan

Could there be a synergy by combining wave power and offshore wind? In business, synergy is usually highly overestimated, but being able to share the same transmission line to the coast, helping to balance out the lack of wind power during periods of low wind, and lowering the installation expense and ongoing maintenance expense of both systems would seem to be worth looking into.

You also have the ability to manufacture both systems at the same plant near the coast; increasing the return on investment in the facility. If Maine got their act together soon enough, they could ship their wind and wave power systems to the Great Lakes via the St. Lawrence river and over to England as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_power

Edit: You might also have the ability to balance out the lack of wind power when winds exceed 55 mph.

Here is an idea for all those unused tankers we are soon to be up to our ears in.

Pump seawater out of the full tanker ship with a row of windmills mounted on deck (cabled to also provide E to grid when done), when wind dies generate E with water rushing back in as you sink the ship.

Pumped storage.

I have also heard this proposed very seriously for the many, many decommisioned oil rigs in the gulf of mexico. They're already licensed and such, so the legal issues are straightforward, and there are lots of them.

Thanks, Alan. I will pass on your comments to the editor of our local paper, who bought the idea without any apparent reservation.

Grace be, we have both friends and turkey and will give thanks to the source of it all (with no attempt to name the unnameable) at dinner today.

I hope everyone on TOD is similarly blessed.

Here is a promo PDF about deep water wind from Matt Simmons' Ocean Energy Institute website. http://www.oceanenergy.org/

http://www.oceanenergy.org/OEI_Deep_Water_Wind_for_Maine_Ver_1-1.pdf

Alan,
The US already shares power with HVDC links to Canada's hydro. Furthermore N America has the great lakes and lake Winnipeg, that have vast potential for season storage. Lake shore residents may not like a seasonal 2 meter drop in lake levels but its a lot better than a permanent 2 meter increase in sea levels. Nowhere else in the world has better natural hydro storage capacity within transmission distance to very large wind and solar resources.
We need base-load power is just a rational for keeping coal or expanding nuclear.

I am aware of the way Lake Winnipeg is used as a reservoir by Manitoba Hydro (they want to add 5 GW) and how the seasonal spring water in the Great Lakes could be delayed and used for summer peaking power (install about 20 GW at Niagara Falls instead of 5 GW today).

All told, good, but not nearly enough.

Minimum nukes % for a 90% non-GHG grid, about 30%.

Alan

Alan,
The difference in height between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and the size of these lakes would seem to have much more than 2OGW capacity, if pumped storage was used, especially if it was possible to control the lake levels back to Lake Superior. So Lake Superior could be pumped up 1 meter above mean level in winter and pumped down( or drained down to Lake Erie 1 meter below mean level in summer, that's a lot of extra water, especially if some is re-used by being pumped back past Niagara falls during off peak in summer.
What makes these lakes so good is the large surface areas, multiple lakes and the narrow control points between lakes. The big drop at Niagara falls and a lower Lake Ontario is ideal for shorter term pumped storage.

Quebec and Ontario also have additional lakes but smaller and more remote from major population centers.

Conveniently located near those soon-to-be shut down car factories too. Perhaps someone should suggest to GM that they include making wind turbines in their "proposal" for getting 25 billion dollars for free.

Currently costs for of-shore wind in Britain are well over £2 million/installed MW - costs shift so rapidly that it is difficult to be more precise, and how much of the cost of transmission and back-up varies with different estimates.
In the North Sea 35% is the usual figure used for capacity estimates - perhaps you get more in the Gulf of Maine.

That works out then to well over £6 million/MW of actual energy generated - way higher than anything except solar PV

Here are Centrica's figures, which show £80 billion for 40BW of wind installed - but 7GW of this is for the far cheaper on-shore wind.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/03/16/afx4778629.html

It should be borne in mind that materials costs are currently falling rapidly, so updated figures may be much more favourable.