"That critical level is widely reckoned within the oil industry to be $90 a barrel. A current price as low as half that critical level is already forcing many companies to drop oil projects, and the banking crisis is also squeezing project financing for foreign oil companies operating in OPEC and outside."

Already happening in Alberta, although the ostensible reason is high construction costs for oilsands projects and high rates for drilling rigs. Some of the more vindictive companies are claiming it is because of Alberta's new royalty regime, but because other places have higher royalties the companies are happy to pay, that excuse doesn't wash. Some junior petes who live on a line of credit or regular stock issues instead of cash flow have been hit. Private equity petes who stay within their cash flow are well placed.

Calgary's economy is still booming but this is due more to ongoing projects such as a dozen or so skyscrapers under construction downtown and the municipality catching up on infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges. No matter what route you drive in Calgary, your lane is closed 500 metres ahead by the Waterworks Dept. installing a new line.

The retail scene will be confused by the Christmas shopping season just getting underway, but I expect a slowdown in January. 7-Eleven is still begging for clerks at $12/hour plus benefits plus retention bonus.

I wonder if demand destruction will outpace "supply destruction."

It's looking more and more possible, IMO...

Commercial mortgages could melt down next

WASHINGTON — The full scope of the housing meltdown isn't clear, and already there are ominous signs of a new crisis — one that could turn out the lights on malls, hotels and storefronts nationwide.

Even as the holiday shopping season begins in full swing, the same events poisoning the housing market are now at work on commercial properties, and the bad news is trickling in. Malls from Michigan to Georgia are entering foreclosure.

..."We're probably in the first inning of the commercial mortgage problem," said Scott Tross, a real estate lawyer at Herrick Feinstein in New Jersey.

And more evidence of softening consumer demand, even on the higher end, compounded by "Cheap is the new Chic."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122782355321662353.html?mod=testMod
WSJ: Luxury-Car Sales in Steep Decline
Luxury-car sales are getting hit as hard as the overall auto market, in contrast to previous downturns.

On top of rising foreclosures, a plunging stock market and thousands of pink slips on Wall Street, luxury-car makers say their customers also don't want their subordinates to see them driving a new car.

"People don't want to look like they have money now," said Mark Templin, group vice president of Toyota Motor Corp.'s North American Lexus division.

The opportunities and challenges going forward will be to figure out how to maintain an acceptable standard of living that is sustainable. Each person can benefit himself and the planet by investing in the future rather than simply consuming for the present. Insulating an attic is investing in the future; investing in a new big screen HDTV is simply consuming for the present. Investing in infrastructure, like solar panels, that provide a future return, means that their is less required throughput in the future to maintain the same standard of living. Our society focuses on consumption (throughput) as the end all and be all and then represents all that in GDP. Increasing GDP, year after year, represents failure, not economic success. Tearing down one's house to build a new one creates a lot of GDP but also represents the destruction of wealth.

Whats interesting is that you can lose a lot of GDP without impacting gasoline demand.

The luxury car example it takes just as much gasoline to go buy a cheaper toyota vs a BMW.
You lose a significant amount of GDP but the oil usage has not changed.

Someone that makes 100k a year used the same amount of gasoline per year as someone making 50k.

Going to the store and buying day old bread uses just as much energy as buying fresh bread.

I could go on for ever but you can see economic activity can shrink a lot before demand changes.

Growth in demand does not happen but the leap from growth to actual decline in demand is quite large.

Latest:

Keppel Slumps by Most in Seven Weeks as Customers Review Orders

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Keppel Corp., the world’s largest builder of oil rigs, slumped by the most in more than 21 years after saying it was in talks with three customers to review options for new orders agreed earlier this year

Keppel earlier dropped as much as 15 percent, the most since October 1987, and closed 13 percent lower at S$4.20. The contracts were for a semi-submersible, two jack-up rigs and a support vessel signed by Seadrill Ltd., Scorpion Offshore Ltd. and Lewek Shipping Pte with Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd., Keppel said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

Demand for new ships and offshore projects has slowed as the global financial crisis has dried up funds, cut global trade and driven oil prices lower. That’s raised concerns that some orders may be canceled or delivered late.

The “announcement may set a dangerous precedent for more potential order cancellations,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including David Ng said today in a note. “It has not only established that oil-services companies are backing out, it is hitting incumbents such as Keppel.”

Peace River project shelved by Shell

Published: Thursday, November 27, 2008

Royal Dutch Shell has put on hold another multibillion-dollar Alberta oilsands project, the second in a month, as it struggles with low commodity prices and increasing Alberta construction costs.

A spokeswoman with subsidiary Shell Canada Ltd. confirmed Wednesday the company has withdrawn its application for regulatory approval of the 100,000-barrel-per-day Carmon Creek in-situ oilsands project planned for 40 kilometres northeast of Peace River because it would not be economic as envisioned.

The project, for which no cost estimate has been released, was to have been sanctioned in 2010.

The latest megaproject chart looks to have severely trimmed tails after cuts to projects past 6 years.

Japan industry: 'Unprecedented' decline

TOKYO (AP) -- Production at Japan's vital manufacturers is sinking fast - and is projected to turn in its worst quarter ever - amid a plunge in global demand that is battering the core of the world's second-largest economy.

..."The world economy is a disaster," said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo. "Exports are in the process of collapsing, and as a result industrial production is falling at unprecedented speed."

Yet, i just heard on the news that a in a wall-mart in my local area a worker was trampled to death by over eager consumers. It's speaks pretty sadly for this country really..

Youtube: Wal-Mart Worker Killed During Stampede

Just wait until 'thousands of Americans' are lined up not for a holiday sale, but for food with which to feed their starving families.

As tempers flare and tummies grumble, there will certainly be no shortage of trampling, conflict, and senseless violence. I wonder whether the cornucopian economists will refer to this as demand destruction..

"there will certainly be no shortage of trampling, conflict, and senseless violence. I wonder whether the cornucopian economists will refer to this as demand destruction."

LMAO !!! That is perfect. I can just see the economists on TV explaining "demand destruction" while charting the dead and maimed consumers after each rampage at the supermarkets.

It speaks badly for New Yorkers. There has been a lot written on The Drum lately about all the advantages of living in high density cities. I'll stay here in Decatur County IA where we lock our doors so the neighbors don't sneak in an leave a bushel of sweet corn.

Chuckle, up here if you leave your car unlocked in town in the summer, you'll most likely have a back seat full of zucchinis.

Don in Maine