I wonder if this 60 mbpd plateau represents a constant state of energy profit given that a growing percentage of its maintenance is oil sand and EOR dependent. Is not the reverse side of peak fraught with growing energy costs? Perhaps a adjusted energy profit curve would paint a harder future.

Conversely the inability to track small field startups may mean the analysis is slightly pessimistic in the short to medium term?

The analysis is fine. Within it's self accepted limits.

"The ship is going down"

"How fast?"

"Can't sink."

"Good, it will take a little longer to get to port and we'll be scraping the bottom, but if Scotty can give us a little more power it will be fine."

The string quartet begins playing on the foredeck.

Sorry, I just don't think this stuff is linear and "projectable". I suspect the margin of error, the possible deviations, the wild deviations - those are much more likely than any smooth projection. So while an analysis like this is useful, it is deceptive absent discussion of the margin of error.

I tore off a tag this morning from a flyer posted at Maine Coffee Roasters - "Ever Dreamed of Playing the Violin?" Yeah, that's just the ticket I was thinking.

cfm in Gray, ME