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283 comments on DrumBeat: December 4, 2008
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283 comments on DrumBeat: December 4, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
You left one out:
e) All of the above and solar too.
Until we try out the various options, there's no way to make a choice.
I do think that (b) isn't likely to work out, since the mass of material other than the water/algae mix is going to be large. Growing "oil producing" algae in open ponds was shown to be a bad idea by the NREL, due to rapid contamination from wild type species which don't produce oil. That means the only way to grow "oil producing" algae is by building massive closed systems, which would be much more expensive than open ponds. Not to mention that algae doesn't grow when the temperature is below about 40F, so production will be seasonal, just like any other crop.
E. Swanson
Are solar and wind scalable? On a side note some possible progress with regards to thorium power here
I'm guessing that one of the main drawbacks of thorium power is that it is still largely untested, the question of scalability and how much water it uses as well?
Wind certainly has proved itself to be. Spain this year set a record with getting 40% of its entire power demand from Wind Power:
New Wind Power Record in Spain: 40.8% of Total Demand!
Hope! :D
That's a bad thing; who wants unusable spikes to 41%?
Wind power contributes on average 11% of Spains electricity demand but it's distributed into spikes that are hard to absorb and lulls that are hard to mitigate(which no doubt creates "security of demand" for Gazprom). There's not even a hint off a plan to build the massive storage they will need.
It wouldn't surprise me if they pay negative prices for wind much of the time(just like the Texas ERCOT, see http://www.knowledgeproblem.com/archives/002745.html)
Wind and solar are very scalable.
What you need is a VERY good grid, some overbuilt capacity, and the externalities of coal priced in.
Consumer,
We probably agree on much but I suspect we define scalability differently. Most of the alts can be constructed on commercial levels. When some of us refer to scalability problems we mean the combination of the lack of investment capital and the timing factor. Given a couple of decades and trillions of $'s many of the alts can development a significant impact on our energy consumption profile. But, as you say, we need a "good grid". So how long before the grid is expanded before the alts can be scaled up? Certainly not 4 or 5 years. No one is even approaching that one problem at the moment with any meaningful action. How long before we see solid political mandates supporting alts? More time delay. How long to build the infrastructure to build the hardware for any alt expansion? And where will that capital come from these days?
Perhaps the use of scalability in this manner is the best nomenclature but it's a common theme in many discussions.
I was referring to technological scalability, not political.
Technologically, we have no problems. We have plenty of oil and coal to fund a 30 year transition. Politically, as you point out, we are screwed.
Liquid fluoride salt thorium/U233 cycle nuclear reactors were built and successfully demonstrated in the US by Oak Ridge Nat'l Labs in the '60s. I'm not aware of any commercial scale thorium reactors at present, but the concept has significant advantages - and some modest technical challenges - compared to the current light water uranium/plutonium cycle that is the standard in the US.
See Energy From Thorium for more details.
Yet there are a lot of people out there working on it. Most of the stories in the news talk about open-pond types of systems, and they just let native species grow in it instead of trying to optimize for oil producing algae. What this means I don't know - one would presume that there is some subsequent step to convert the algae into something fuel-like, but I haven't seen enough details about any of them to say more than that.