I actually own a condo only a short mass transit from my job. I have no problems with some of the practice advice, and I agree with you on selling the suburban mcmansion and trading to a more practical vehicle. What I take issue with is fear mongering, and telling people that its past time they start preparing to live like the Waltons is just that.

What I take issue with is fear mongering, and telling people that its past time they start preparing to live like the Waltons is just that.

You have got to be kidding me. You must be living in a different economic universe from the one that the rest of us live in.

What's wrong with living like the Waltons anyway. They had a huge house, a barn, a workshop, and some land. That sounds pretty good to me!

Yah, but you would likely turn your brain to mush saying things like "goodnight Jim Bob" and "That was great".

Well you know it's not all bad. I ended up a "Brady" bunch. Tiny house, ended up a single parent with 2 boys. a few years down the line, I met a wonderful single mother with 2 daughters. Talk about insanity. Went from batching it, to a bunch of women. We had to make the deck a new room, 3 quick walls and a roof. put the girls upstairs and the boys in the basement. Wife and I got the new room on the ground floor. A tiny bit of seperation helps a lot. One bathroom saw a lot of traffic, and even some urgent pounding on the door. Not the guys, we all headed outside in a pinch.

Tolerance goes a long way, they all now are the best of friends. Grown to adults.

Pigs, chickens, good damn dog, all the kids remember this as heaven. Each has approached me, if it would be ok, if they are stuck to head back here. I think you all know my answer. I'm really proud they are all as strong as they are. Gawd talk about assets. Both boys can outshoot me. Better eyes.

Younger son's significant other is born to the crossbow. Not a one of us can come close.

Some days we used to get furious with each other, but threaten us all and we pull together. We do it now all the time. a touch, a hug, a hug for the plott hound. Darn dawg was another stray, we have a pile of strays here. Each says it in their own way. Damn dawg is on duty. Big time.

I clean toilets for work, to get cash. My life is some good.

Don in Maine

Oh by the way I beat you all to that job cleaning toilets, you get to be unemployed. Sounds cool right, you don't collect either.

The problem, and we all do it, is in thinking of prices in absolute $ values. If your ability to pay is dropping faster than the notional price is, then the cost is going up. Corrected for deflation, the cost of fuel has not dropped as far as it appears to have. I wonder what the cost of fuel looks like to one of the 533k who lost their jobs last month?

You advice was/is sound. The confluence of PO, climate change, and economic and political collapse is bound to be very complex and the timing of specific events hard to predict. It's amazing that some cannot even see it happening around them.

Also, the assumption that everything will happen at an even rate in all geographic and social regions is naive.

"Also, the assumption that everything will happen at an even rate in all geographic and social regions is naive."

I think that is one of the most important points ever made on this board.

I think one problem for the "average joe/jane" is they tend to think in terms of "all or none" happening everywhere all at once. But every locale has unique variables for their food and energy distribution systems, governmental functions, utilities/city services, ethnic mixes...

Each locale has different strengths and weaknesses based on "genes' (people) and the local environmental limitations (climate and resources) those 'genes' happen to be in.

So, you are absolutely right, The Symptoms of Collapse certainly will not be distributed equally over time or place.

All are at the mercy of The Real Market (i.e. Nature).

There is no "safe," only safer. And what is "safer" today may not be safer tomorrow.

Like Dmitry Orlov says (paraphrase), "it's good to make plans, but also plan to change plans frequently"

Unfortunately, employment tends to be binary, either you have a job or you don't and it tends to be a rather large variable in the survival equation.

Picture 533,000 newly unemployed w/wheelbarrows moving O-NPK, converting land into permaculture plots, building narrow-gauge minitrains and SpiderWeb networks to 'ribcage' support the buildout of Alan's 'spine and limbs' standard-gauge ideas, Terra Preta industries and reforestation work, plus building minimal water usage facilities:

http://web.archive.org/web/19960101-re_/http://www.uni-kiel.de/sino/ar/s...

Or will the US fiddle around until we replicate Zimbabwe's 90% unemployment rate and short life expectancy? Are Americans ready to balance 100lbs of firewood on their heads while walking barefoot through broken glass, thorns, and sewage?

My guess is that China will move in this more optimal direction much faster than the US. Recall previous weblink where they are racing to build lots of additional standard-gauge track miles. Will China start building out narrow-gauge minitrain and SpiderWebRiding networks soon? Much, much cheaper than asphalt at $100,000 per mile.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

There's gonna be a lot more than 533,000 newly unemployed souls moving O-NPK...

Oh, and while you're at it, we can burn that asphalt with the right boiler (PDF WARNING!) and use our very roads to power our energy descent.

moving O-NPK... the story of my life

Remember when they thought we had too much broadband? Build it and they will come.

The actual number of unemployed in the USA is somewhere between 15 and 20 million. How many wheelbarrows are there in America?

And what happens if you lose your job and can't get another one?

Moving in with your parents or a sibling sounds like a good "Plan B" to me, whether they have a garden or not.

But isn't advising moving in with them now when they haven't lost a job (and may never) advocate panic reactions and serve to make the problem worse (as wherever they own now sits empty on the market)?

'for a lot of people to start making contingency plans'

We have contingency plans here in Florida in case there is a hurricane. I've never heard someone make the argument that planning for a hurricane, or for losing a job, makes the problem worse and invites panic reactions.

Usually quite the opposite.

I'm all for everybody craming into single houses with their extended family and growing their own food. That'll leave cheap and plentiful resources for me!

Also in Florida,,,,Yes, but it is truly amazing when a CAT 3 comes into range, the number of idiots out on the street and in the stores, that have not done a minutes worth of prep all year. Like the "Idiot Fairies" kidnapped them one night, and they just woke up in South Florida the next morning?????

Trouble is, a huge majority of people in this country will wait until it's too f**king late.

Trouble is, a huge majority of people in this country will wait until it's too f**king late.

DING DING DING!


Who cares? The government will bail me out tomorrow.

"Never do today what you can put off 'til tomorrow."

Why? Because by tomorrow it may no longer be necessary and so by having done it today you've wasted effort and likely fucked something up. For it's in the doing of things that things get fucked up. Procrastination is a virtue.

Fear mongering?

If the converging economic, climatic and energetic problems civilisation now faces doesn't scare the **** out of you, seek help.

I've been trying to live up to westexas ELP recommendations and so far it worked out very well for me. I needed a new roof on my small house, created an extra storey in the process, and paid cash thanks very much.

...telling people that its past time they start preparing to live like the Waltons is just that (fear mongering)

"We’re going to keep trying to strengthen the American family, to make them more like the Waltons and less like the Simpsons."

- George Herbert Walker Bush, 1992

Actually, at least a couple of years ago, I wish there had been more fear mongering, and I wish this fear mongering had been in the main stream press. As bad as I thought the financial system might be, it is worse that my worst fears. Actually, the Waltons lived in a pretty big house as I recall.

And it wasn't so bad. They had large "people carriers" even back then :)

Fear mongering? Holy Crap. Does it even enter your thoughts that there is a huge difference between now and 1929. How many people make or sell things that people NEED???
This is going to be worse than you seem to understand. 533,000 jobs in a month. What are they going to do? A job selling holiday trinkets?
Just how easy is it to predict the future? Close is far better for everyone than what I see Paulson et al doing. Put your faith into the panic stricken leadership we have now if you want. Good luck - you'll need it. I think Jeffery has been insightful.
D

What trigged my comment was the following e-mail I sent out this morning to some family members (names deleted to protect the innocent). Fortunately, my daughter and son-in-law (who works in the energy services industry) followed my advice and did not buy a house. They are renting a townhouse along a mass transit line. (The designated fallback position would be our house.)

I believe that John Kenneth Galbraith said that the distinguishing characteristic of the Great Depression was that "The worst continued to get worse."

Lots of talk about lower oil prices. Natural gas has fallen to around $6, which is going to shut down a good deal of the unconventional natural gas drilling in the country.

I talked to a friend of mine yesterday. Because of high casing prices, they are drilling one more well in an expensive to drill and complete oil field. After that, they are shutting down until oil prices rise, and/or until equipment prices fall. They do want to look at some of our shallow drilling deals, since they suspended their developmental program.

I continue to think that a combination of involuntary net oil export and voluntary net oil export reductions will drive oil prices back up next year, but the scary thing is the rate at which demand is falling. The truly scary thing is that energy is probably the strongest sector of the economy right now.

Global trade is collapsing. Huge numbers of ships are being taken out of service because of a lack of demand and because they can't make money at current rates. Huge numbers of people are being, and will be, laid off in the auto, housing, finance and related sectors.

I suggest that all of us cancel plans for any expensive Christmas gifts that have not yet been purchased.

Hopefully, things will be clarified by the time that (names deleted) current lease is up in August. The problem is that I think that things may be clarified for the worse, but time will tell.

If things get really bad, we may need to think about consolidating in one house. Something like the Waltons.

If a family can do as well as the "Waltons" the next few years I'd say they will be part of the upper middle class

Part of it may be that everyone was jolted awake and suddenly realized that they already had all of the plastic crap that they really needed - more than enough, really. An economy based upon people just buying real necessities would be a much healthier one, but the transition will be hell for a lot of people.

WNC Observer writes "Part of it may be that everyone was jolted awake and suddenly realized that they already had all of the plastic crap that they really needed - more than enough, really."

That's where I'm at. I can't speak for others but that's why I haven't bought much in the last 6 months. Car manufacturers build cars to last longer. I probably won't need another vehicle for five years. Markets are saturated. The pain caused by harder-to-get-credit needed for getting more unneeded stuff is greater than the boredom caused by using what we have now.

That's me - I go and look at all the stuff I don't need.

How big will the suction from the downdraft be? This is my concern. Our business is healthy and debt free. But we are restructuring to meet a fully changed demand to necessities, and none too soon imho.

If I'm prepared to "live like the waltons" I'll be better off than most.

It's not only way past time that they start preparing but it is past time they actually started. Living life king size is all very well on borrowed money till the lenders realize that the IOUs they've been issued are little better than Charmin.

Srivathsa

I was once told I was fear mongering, too.

It seems to be a reaction that occurs when the person making the statement isn't yet operating in the same context as the person providing the warning.

It's clear to me that you don't see what some of the rest of us see so Jeffrey's advice makes no sense to you. Of course, if and when your context changes, his advice will seem both prudent and prescient.

I stumbled across a remarkable CNBC clip, filmed almost a year ago. CNBC's Closing Bell interviews the CEO of Overstock.com, Patrick Bryne. (It gets good about 2:45 minutes into the video):

Dec 2007: 'We are living in a house of cards'

Bryne: I think that we're living at the edge of a 1929 kind of disaster... I think that we've been living in a house of cards for about 6 years. The American economy is like an old man in an oxygen tent that you flood with oxygen, but when you turn off the oxygen, he fades very quickly. Well the oxygen in our system has been cheap credit... We're on the edge of global financial meltdown.

The hilarity comes when the co-host, Dylan Ratigan, tries to steer the conversation into happyland. Ratigan's stammering rationalization says a lot about how and why humanity finds itself in the predicament it does.

Ratigan: But I always judge the market based on what it does. It's a self-evident machine. And if you look at the past five years, they have been spectacular. Not just in terms of the stock market performance, but in terms of the emergence of lifestyle on the Earth. Meaning that we've watched the construction of billions of large buildings etcetera. And the emergence of a digital culture of consumption and technological commerce, to which, by the way, you have been a tremendous beneficiary. So I find it curious that you don't give [this economic prosperity] more credit.

Bryne: Well I think that prosperity has largely come from [the fact that] we've been writing checks on the bank account of future people. In one way or another, the FED and the Treasury have been inflating this economy with cheap credit for about 5 years longer than they should have, and I think it's all going to come to a pretty ugly end.

Well, he's right we have 'spent a part of the future' -the issue is that a lot of people have come to think we can continue that model ad-infinitum. It's become written into the 'business case' of our society.

Now reality is hitting and the figures don't stack up any more...

Nick.