A bottom forming? Well, prices blipped up today, but this global recession is barely out of the crib. Remember 1998? Oil hit $10 a barrel. Remember 1980? Oil demand fell by 11 percent in three years (globally).
I hate to say it, I try to be optimistic, but this global recession looks much worse. Where is refuge from this downturn? Europe? Asia? North America? South America? Manufacturing? Retailing? Real Estate?
Nada, nada, nada. Oil demand could easily fall by 10 percent (maybe more), while supplies rise by 2-3 mbd in nex couple of years.
I see honking gluts of crude to the moon for years and years.
Oiil may hit $10 a barrel again. Increases in crude oil demand will be long and slow in coming, if we are lucky to get any increases at all within three years.
Oil is deader than yesterday's newspaper.
We might want to re-think hytseria about supply. Price seems to moderate demand, especially above $100 a barrel, while stimulating supply. Add in recession, and you get glut-a-rooni.

One thing is clear, production is inflexible, not demand.

The oil industry has become much more concentrated, with the great bulk of production in the hands of a few dozen national producers. An oil minister's worst nightmare is for his country to cut production - for any reason - and watch prices rise as a result, with his adversarial neighbor reaping a windfall. Meanwhile, his own country becomes more and more vulnerable, because its income has been reduced because of low production.

As a result, the countries pump as much and as fast as possible. 85 million barrels every single day is a lot of oil. That oil has to be sold and however low the price must go to clear that day's market, it will be cleared. If the production does not leave the country, the outcome is the same as a cut in production, so sales strategy and promotion are a part of the production process as well.

Of course, there are unintended consequences, some of which are well known. The low price reduces investment in new production, repairs and maintainence or petro infrastructure and the production of alternative energy sources. A less well considered outcome is the loss of income to our suppliers; these countries are the source of much of US stimulus and bailout funding, as well as customers for USA- made goods and services. The highly valued dollar becomes an additional difficulty. The possibility that declining revenues might result in domestic unrest - and Al Qaeda attacks on oil infrastructure - also increases.

What is infuriating is the deleterious effects could be avoided by the government placing a floor under oil prices or, at least gasoline prices. $4 dollar per gallon gas would give the government policy leverage with our suppliers and encourage conservation and help finance alternatives. It would demonstrate someone in Washington knows what they are doing and that hard choices can be made, rather than have the choices made for us by circumstance.

SfromV-- from your lips to G-d's ears. A gasoline tax to dampen demand and build infrastructure. I recommend incresiong the federal gasoline tax by 50 cents a gallon for next eight years, while cutting taxes on middle class.
I am not so sure production is inflexible -- just slow. And subject to lunatic thug-state politics.
A good reason for USA to go it alone, energy-wise.

Where is refuge from this downturn? Europe? Asia? North America? South America? Manufacturing? Retailing? Real Estate?

Refuge is so last century, so very very over.

Not only is refuge for wealth over, but also for people. Even the top GM executives have no place to run, no place to hide! And now, in the cruelest cut of all, no jet to take them there.

Ah, well. "We will always have Paris." But of course Bogie - uh, Rick - really meant, "We will always have Paris, in our memories."