Your technicals are all technically correct. I think there's a whole different explanation for the bottom falling out of the market. KSA is run by a royal family who don't need to maximize short term oil revenue as much as they need to do maximize their influence on energy markets and prop up diversified investments in US securities.

It's just naked monopoly power. Destroy the energy competition, get back any money lost on mortgages (Allah be vindicated), and help orchestrate another spike. I wonder how their US managers have been redeploying KSA assets during this bloodbath? My suggestion is "follow the money". Easier now that there's so little left.