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170 comments on DrumBeat: December 10, 2008
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170 comments on DrumBeat: December 10, 2008
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I'm a big fan of Elizabeth Warren, but she doesn't "get" peak oil or the idea of resource constraints. I don't think she really understands what drove so many women into the workplace. She says it's competition for a house in a good school district...but why didn't that happen before? Because a good education wasn't required to have a middle class life before. And it wasn't just cheap labor that drove jobs overseas. It was cheap energy.
This is from Charles H Smith's excellent blog http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html (he gets peak oil though not quite fully I believe, a prescient writer none the less).
This is one of the reader comments
Is what's happening these days a sign of declining NET energy per capita across the world?
Those countries which have recently experienced an increase in energy per capita have seen their living standards go up eg China and recently India (In the cities especially).
Sometimes the blog author talks of his time studying in Honolulu, Hawaii and how relatively inexpensive it was than.
Any words from TODer's who studied in the 60's, 70's and 80's? How was life back than?
Energy = Money
Once one understands that, everything else falls into place.
Granted Energy = Money but there was a different mind set then. I went to a state college in Texas 1950-1952 and room, board, books and tuition cost my parents less than $2500 for two years but anything else I had to work and buy for myself. I had a part time job in our massive dormitory where I lived that paid 50 cents/hr and on that less than $7 per week I had a good life. There were certainly no frills and I spent most of my time studying engineering subjects. BTW: My prewar Nash 600 got something over 25 mpg but the battery was shot and I had to park on a hill or have lots of pushers. Pushers had a different meaning then. I immagine the population has doubled since then and twice the people living on essentially the same amount of resources or less is at least part of the price increases. I haven't visited anyone going to college but I would immagine their living a lot better than we did with two men to a ~130 sq/ft room. Two beds, two desks, two chairs and two wall lockers in each room.
Wrong. Energy = money,
but money doesn't = money.
Energy is depleting and going up in value. Money is not depleting, and at some point will go down in value. Now credit = money,
but credit is depleting and therefore, for the moment, increasing the value of money. But if you print enough money, then you can stop credit from depleting since everyone gets paid off, in depleted money.
Understand?
The solution to the whole problem is quite simple: just print more energy.
Costs are higher now due to the cost of government, including transfer payments. These costs were much lower in the 70's. Higher energy prices play a part also, as does the relative amount of all resources, including land, due to the larger population (100 million added in USA since 1970).
I went to college from 46 to 50 on the GI bill, saved up on that to buy a year old car when I graduated, had lots and lots of job offers, got a scholarship to grad school, worked for NACA for 7 years, and then went on to teaching in 1960, earning $9K/yr, comfortably supporting an at- home wife and child.
My whole long education cost me nothing out of pocket.
When I "retired" in 1996 I was "earning" more than I want to admit, my wife was working full time, but we didn't have nearly the leisure time or sense of ease we had when I started. Net gain??
I have now reverted to my natural state of fixit man and junk hoarder, and feel better about it. Fixed a busted shower and a strangely psychopathic telephone line today, as well as a bit of Murphy's messups at the lab, and so to bed.
I remember a student strike at the University of Minnesota in 1963 when they raised tuition to $100 a quarter!
And the double whammy is that cheap energy is what made providing all of those higher educations possible. Before cheap energy, it was not possible for a large percentage of the population to stay in school into their mid 20's.
Yes. I don't think people realize how expensive our education system is. When I point out that we're not likely to be able to support the current level of education, let alone increase it (to "innovate our way out of peak oil"), people say, "But it doesn't take a lot of energy to run a college campus." That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the costs of supporting an elite class. Whether it's priests, doctors, kings, or scientists...they're a burden on society. Perhaps a useful burden, but a burden nonetheless.
Unless we crash all the way back down to the hunter-gatherer state, we will always have elites...but there will be a lot fewer of them.
I think we will probably have to go back to more of an apprentice system. Graduate high school, maybe go to a two-year program, then apprentice and get on the job training.
Is there any real reason why people can't learn to do stuff as apprentices? It may make you less mobile, e.g. if the company apprentices you for X years, they may demand X years of service from you.
Most of what I know how to do at my job, I learned by doing my job. It would help if people had reading, writing, math and critical thinking done by the end of High School.
There's no reason people can't learn as apprentices. But I don't think we'll see a lot of scientific innovation that way. With the low-hanging fruit plucked, it's become pretty hard to add to our body of knowledge without a lot of expensive equipment/infrastructure.
I think it may be hard to even maintain our current level of knowledge. It's not just learning. It's the leisure to do work that is not immediately productive. Few people are going to farm all day, then teach their kids nuclear engineering in the evenings.
My Indentures still hang on my wall - there is a considerable benefit to understanding the practical realities of an industry by going through an apprenticeship. It allows a much deeper understanding of what goes on than one gets in the classroom, and the hands on training that is increasingly rare for undergraduate students. Computer modeling of a situation does not carry with it the understanding that standing knee deep in water trying to install a roof support carries about the real risks of mining, for example.
I always tried to get apprentices. Good ones were highly beneficial to us and to themselves. Computer simulations are a curse unless well mixed with the awful truths of the real world. My problem with my foreign students was that many were extremely reluctant to actually put their hands on machines instead of math models thereof. As a result they often would present an obviously absurd result quite happily, too ignorant of reality to recognize just how foolish it really was.
OK, so you have finished your simulation. Good. What is the piston amplitude?
Just as you see here- 10 meters.
TEN METERS! The whole thing is only .3 meters long!
It must be longer. The piston amplitude is 10 meters.
I used to agree with you, but now I'm not so sure. I think that we've accumulated a lot of data and results that would be hard to get without our present infrastructure, but very often the avalanche of research is not very well digested. There's never time to go back and work things through, put everything in perspective. Go back and read Marx' Capital. I'm not trying to be political here. It'll be a long time before you'll see a work of scholarship such as that.
Today's research is very, very mission oriented, very reductionist (which is necessary), but very neglectful of the larger cycles in which the item of study in embedded. I believe there will be plenty of stuff to do and think about even when we have a lot less equipment to do it with.
It's vital that we retain we've accumulated however. I don't know that we'll ever be able to duplicate our probes of the other planets, nor build larger particle acclerators. Oil and metals were, I fear, a one-time gift.
How many people read Marx now? How many people will read him in our likely poorer and darker future?
I don't think it's possible. We'll have to do triage, as Greer puts it: try to save the most useful information.
And even then, we can't count on retaining it forever. One thing we know from studying the collapse of previous societies: knowledge can be lost, even very useful knowledge.
A saying going around Russia these days:
"Everything Marx told us about communism was false, and everything Marx told us about capitalism was true!"
They already have that program. It's called the U.S. military. Four years of service and they'll train you in some mind-numbing technical job that prepares the apprentice for a mind-numbing job in the civilian world. Upside: If you're bright enough you get to work at a video screen with a toggle controller moving unmanned drones around 1/2 a world away. Downside: For the dull of wit the majority of training will involve small weapons and getting your ass shot at in real time by people from countries that you can barely pronounce and hate your guts more than you'll ever know.
But it beats pumping gas!
Leanan,
I kind of agree with you, but I wonder what timescale you are thinking of?
One could decide to give a higher priority to funding education, at least in theory, but this would require a re-think or debate about how and where we use society's resources.
It's striking how expensive higher education has become in the United States and this is not a positive development. The cost has rocketed in recent years. If I remember correctly, over the last couple of decades college has increased on average by over 400% far outstripping healthcare which has "only" more than doubled!
The second point about the costs to society of supporting an elite class is problematic. It depends on how one defines an elite. Priests, doctors, scientists, teachers, musicians, writers aren't really the elite. We can easily afford them. However, the "elite" we really can't afford, the elite that matters, is the capitalist class. They are not only extraordinarily expensive they are also almost totally redundent, having outstayed their historic sell-by date by decades. We don't need them anymore. The top 1% of the US population squeezes out and controls over 40% of the wealth of America. The top 3% getting on for 75% of societies wealth. These are extraordinary levels of structural inequality, like a blight on the entire country.
These people, with lavish lifestyles supported by a giant social pyramid of poor and ordinary working people earning tiny fractions of their incomes are also incredibly powerful politically as well as economically. In reality virtually the entire country is organised for their benefit, as the distribution of wealth shows, and it's their narrow, selfish and entrenched interests that shape society. Yes, they are a burden, but a burden we no longer need to carry on our backs like beasts.
We all, the vast majority of ordinary Americans, people who work for a living, not the financial aristocracy, has a harsh but simple choice for the future. Either we get rid of the elite or they will get rid of us, one way or another. They lead and rule the country and they are leading us over a cliff. The elite won't disappear, the rest of us will first. The elite controls the apparatus of the State giving them enormous power, coercive power which they will use to maintain their lifestyles and position at the very pinacle of the social pyramid.
Because there are going to be so many poor people relative to the tiny minority at the top, it'll be a long time, I would contend, before their numbers will drop significantly, compared to the great mass of the population that'll be hit hardest by the coming Great Depression.
Probably what we need to save are the two year technical schools and community colleges. Bill Gates wants to help community colleges:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/25/magazines/fortune/GatesFoundation_Wallis...
By "elite," I mean people who don't support themselves. That includes most of us, of course. A hundred years ago, 97% of Americans were farmers. Now, 3% are, and they feed the rest of us.
If we really have to run our civilization on a solar budget, I think we're eventually going to get back to something close to those numbers. A lot more of our economy will be devoted to basic subsistence, which means less for other things. College will once again be for the wealthy only.
Any chance we could start by eliminating the priests and the kings first?