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85 comments on What should OPEC do?
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85 comments on What should OPEC do?
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Most probably missed it because it was late, but we discussed this idea a bit on the 12/4 drumbeat http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4831#comment-440612
An excerpt of one of my comments:
"If I was running a cartel, rather than trying to guess how much oil I needed to put on, or take off the market to reach my price target, I would just set my price, then observe the market and adjust accordingly. For example: OPEC could announce a price of $75 tomorrow.... not a penny less (adjusted for crude quality of course). Of their ~40MM capacity, they may observe that they only have takers for 36MM. They could then adjust production down acordingly. On the other hand, if 41MM was sold, they could bump price up to 80 (or sell to the 40MM highest bidders). Announcing such a policy would be quite a shock initially, but after a while it would work quite well. You could adjust price or supply weekly or bi-weekly as needed to meet your targets. Opec's lack of unity would be problematic,as it is now, but I think Saudi Arabia could pull it off by themselves if need be. Announcing tomorrow that they would not accept less than $75 would probably not reduce global quantity demanded by more than 2 or 3MMbo/d ~33% of current production (9MMbo/d), but revenue, at $75 vs. $40 would actually increase. The current system just seems so clumsy and is clearly inneffective. Setting a price floor really shouldn't be this hard for a cartel with as much cash and as as much market share as OPEC has. The first month might be rocky, but after that the new system would increase revenue, and probably add stability to the whole system.
Moneyman - Would this not just give OPEC control over the value of the dollar?
I'm not sure about that.... out of my league. My point was that there are better ways to enforce a price floor than the clumsy way OPEC handles it now. Setting a price floor isn't rocket science, all it would take is a few weeks of cash on hand and a a little bit of determination. I doubt enforcing a $75 price floor would require more than a few million bbls being taken off the market, which is what they are planning anyways. Saudi Arabia could probably pull it off unilaterally. Yet they don't and they won't. My guess is politics. Right now, the world is blaming the current financial crisis on the bankers, not high oil, and the Saudi's would like it to stay that way. They are willing to "suffer" a few months, of low oil prices while the public frgets that $4 gasoline ever happened.
Moneyman - I sent this idea round TOD email group yesterday and it was suggested to make it into a post. Its comforting to know that others have thought along same lines.
I don't think this type of policy would have worked a decade ago since higher price might have reduced demand and cut into OPEC's market share. But the world is different now.
I'm not so sure that OPEC lack of unity now is the same as in the past. Then, countries would cheat on quota leaving Saudi to bear the brunt of production cuts. Now, I think other countries are more hawkish than Saudi - Iran, Venezuela etc, and that UAE and Kuwait will likely be more willing to play ball since their production capacity is being tested.
And I suspect that Russia may bring a new form of discipline to the table.