 | DrumBeat: January 12, 2009 | The Oil Drum | Introduction to a Series: Energy Policy Advice for The New Administration |  |
239 comments on Advice to Pres. Obama #1: An Actuary's Impractical Perspective
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239 comments on Advice to Pres. Obama #1: An Actuary's Impractical Perspective
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I think you conflate support for ANWR drilling with "enemy of the earth". I happen to agree with Gail on that subject. There are several potential benefits that might be obtainable if we did it right. Among them:
(1) A substantial stream of government revenue could be captured that should be earmarked for the transition away from fossil fuels.
(2) Under cut the drill-drill-drill political movement, which otherwise might manage to take over the political system, and would foolishly try to continue BAU.
(3) Somewhat reduced oil import bill during the transition.
(4) Buys a little bit of time on the Hubberts peak downslope.
Note, if (1) is achieved, that a net reduction in total fossil fuels burned is possible. But if (2) (anti 2 actually) is allowed to come to pass, than coal-coal-coal will accompany drill-drill-drill.
You are absolutely right. No serious planning for transition can take place without thinking of the short term political consequences. The drill drill drill movement will use any gas price increase to hammer their shortsighted agenda home. The polls in the last election clearly showed the impact of that mentality in the absence of a good strategy to neutralize their poison. Crafting an energy tax in the guise of a nativist production increase push is very clever. It looks even better in the current economic slowdown as it can be passed off as an attempt to create jobs in the drilling sector (or at least preserve jobs that would be lost due to shutdown of now uneconomic low production wells). Good thoughts.