Robert,

I disagree in that higher prices for all users of oil would induce conservation evenly. Diesel is in short supply world wide as we are already experiencing shortages as users switch to diesel over gasoline. A tax on jet fuel would seem to be a requirement too, since there is usually a choice between flying and driving, even on long trips. I've driven across the U.S. a couple of times because I could not afford the cost of an airplane ticket plus car rental. I've driven to Canada twice for the same reason.

To echo another poster, since the goal is to reduce consumption, not punish the user or one market segment over another, I think that rationing is a better approach. The main reason for this is that I think an increase in the price of gasoline, either due to market conditions or due to taxes, tends to produce other price increases as businesses pass along their costs in their wholesale prices. Also, in our present economy where about 70% of the economy is consumer oriented, increases at the pump tend to damp down other purchases as consumers may simply pay the higher price and continue to drive. To have the desired impact on the consumer, the price at the pump would need to increase faster than inflation and we've already seen large price increases in the early 1980's which resulted from increases in world oil prices.

Rationing is a better approach, especially a system where the allocations could be traded. Then, those who wanted to consume more than their allotment could purchase what they need, but with a higher price as the market adjusted to the need for the extra consumption. That would work like a progressive tax on the folks who wanted to continue to be "gas hogs" and would certainly give them a greater incentive to cut their usage. Rationing would produce less inflationary pressure, while achieving the desired reductions. It would also give an immediate signal to the entire economy that we are living in a different world from here on.

As the availability of imports is likely to become sharply constrained (Jeffery Brown's ELM, for example), the tax on gasoline would need to rise to very high levels, much above that which you suggest. If the U.S. had added a larger gasoline tax after 1974, then increased it again after 1980 and increased it further such that we were ALREADY PAYING $2 per gallon in Federal tax, things would be different. It's too late, IMHO, to begin a stiff new tax, given that post Peak declines will likely result in a continuing upward trend in world oil prices. Adding a tax on top of the price increases we saw last summer would immediately sink the rest of the economy. Reducing other taxes to offset the oil tax would remove an incentive to conserve for many, just as the old income credit for gas taxes did in the 1960's. As time passes and the need to reduce consumption becomes more urgent, there would not be enough income taxes left to cut as further increases in gas tax caused the pump price to spiral ever higher.

About the only good result I can see from increasing the tax on gasoline would be that rationing might be seen as a more desirable alternative among the political class. Either way, it's going to be next to impossible to push either plan past our congress critters...

E. Swanson

I agree that rationing is a better way to go. Just look at how much the price had to rise just to get a less than 7% cut in consumption. Rationing gaurantees that total consumption would go down while still supplying fuel for vital needs like food production and distribution, local government services, infrastructure improvements, etc. The ability to trade my unused rations with my neighbors at a mutually agreed price means retirees like me could actually enjoy a small economic benefit.

Rationing is a better approach, especially a system where the allocations could be traded. Then, those who wanted to consume more than their allotment could purchase what they need, but with a higher price as the market adjusted to the need for the extra consumption.

Sorry, you're wrong on most points.

  • Giving people an allotment gives the impression that consuming anything up to the allotment is fine and requires no change.  This is wrong.
  • Giving an allotment creates political resistance to any decrease.  Also,
  • Handing out and redeeming ration coupons requires a new system which is effectively a currency, with all the problems of authentication and counterfeiting that comes with it.

A simple revenue-neutral shift of taxes from income (via a refundable credit) to fuel hands people a bunch of money that they can spend on fuel (directly or indirectly) or on something else.  People with unusual circumstances can be given additional credits, but this doesn't carry the baggage of a currency.  But best of all, the tax creates an extra incentive to avoid burning each and every gallon of fuel, starting with the first one, and "pays" the consumer the full pump price; selling a ration coupon only yields a fraction as much.

I disagree.

What's the point of increasing a tax and then refunding an amount equal to the tax? Is the consumer to be given a fixed amount or an amount exactly equal to their individual tax? A fixed amount looks like a transfer or welfare payment for the poor, who wouldn't be expected to buy enough fuel to amount to the refund while the more well to do would pay more tax than their refund. We know that the rich would hit the ceiling, especially if all transport fuels were taxed, which must happen to keep folks from shifting from cars to aircraft, etc. And, I see nothing wrong with using a BTU based system of value, which wouldn't be subject to inflation. The idea of an energy theory of money has been around for decades, but the economists can't accept it.

Anyway, if the tax is to work, it must have some "bite", that is, it must hurt enough so that people really do conserve. Your plan would appear to have no net impact on the small consumer, as they would be assured of receiving that refund later.

I've previously suggested that a stiff fuel tax might be used to pay for about half of the U.S. DOD budget, including the "war on terrorism" PR crap. I would not rebate the tax but would increase the standard deduction to offset the income. I think this might provide an extra incentive to reduce our imperial military system as our empire contracts for lack of fuel...

E. Swanson

How about a "War on Energy"? We could harness underground atomic explosions and maybe monsters like Godzilla on treadmills to produce unlimited amounts of jobs for Beltway insiders. Or maybe use cosmic rays to tow dwarf stars into tractor orbits around the moon where they can be enclosed in safe housing and transmit effectively unlimited amounts of clean microwave energy directly into people's toasters? Firing off missiles in random directions will produce much more energy than anybody can reasonably use, even North Americans. It's a wonder CERA hasn't picked up this highly concentrated form of pure energy in its confabulations.

Seriously, anybody else wondering how the heck a trillion plus dollars can actually produce any real economic return? Doesn't EROEI have more general application? Pumping cash in won't produce much usable product out of a structurally deficient economy. The natural analogy is the war economy. Dig that hole, fill it with casualties and wreckage, then fill it up again. "WOE" is a natural extension of "drill, baby, drill". Its a gas, gas, gas...

What's the point of increasing a tax and then refunding an amount equal to the tax?

What's the point of having Social Security and the EITC?  It appears you understand neither.

Is the consumer to be given a fixed amount or an amount exactly equal to their individual tax? A fixed amount looks like a transfer or welfare payment for the poor, who wouldn't be expected to buy enough fuel to amount to the refund while the more well to do would pay more tax than their refund.

Ah, so you do get it!

Yes, a fixed amount would give a net surplus to people who use little fuel (which includes those with little income).  This would be a temporary measure which would vanish naturally over time as petroleum usage (the basis of the tax) shrank.  It would also serve to compensate for the initial flow of fuel-saving technology into the upper price segment of vehicles, which would take some years to filter down to both lower-priced new vehicles and the used-vehicle market.

After 20 years or so you could taper off the rebates and just use taxes as a disincentive to use petroleum, because relatively few people would be using much of it anyway.

Social Security is not the same as a fixed tax rebate. The amount one receives from SS is a function of how much one has earned over a career. If you are one of the lucky ones with a good job which pays more than the maximum contribution, then your return from SS won't be above the maximum, but, for many low income folks, SS payments can be less than the maximum. Worse, if one "retires" early and begins payments before the nominal age (67 for my generation), the payments will be lessened still further. That is certainly true for me as I look at my yearly SS payment statement.

Besides, it's likely that we don't have the luxury of a 20 year period to "taper off the rebates", given the Export Land problem. We had better have a large amount of alternatives to fossil fuels in place 20 years hence or you can kiss civilization goodbye as more and more people become so desperate that there will be shooting in the streets. Just today the local news tells us that there was a robbery in a nearby city in which a Brinks guard was shot dead as he carried sacks of money out of a retail store. The robber got away...

E. Swanson

Now you've proven that you understand nothing I've said, because the issue isn't Social Security benefits but Social Security taxes (which are regressive, but are generally larger than the per-taxpayer fuel rebate under most proposals).

Until you show that discussion with you isn't just arguing with a wall, I'm done.

Sorry, my one track engineering mind thought that we were discussing gasoline taxes and gas rationing. Sure, the SS taxes are "regressive" in that they hit the lowest income earners the hardest. But, that has little to do with a fuel tax that is rebated as the rebates would actually be progressive, i.e., the more fuel one uses, the greater the effective tax, since the rebate would be a fixed amount.

A rationing system with tradeable allotments would also be progressive, since the lower income earners and the unemployed would sell their excess allotments for cash. Again, those who wanted to consume more fuel than their allotment would pay extra to do so, resulting in a progressive "tax" on the gas gluttons...

E. Swanson

Tradeable allotments = parallel currency, problems noted above and still unaddressed by you.

Good bye, wall.

It's all about choice here- you are being handed a choice. For some consumers, the net outcome would indeed leave them coming out the same. For some, they would come out worse, but in the end- it was their choice (or in the instance of a fast and harsh set of tax increases, their past choices of location etc.).

For people like myself, young, employed, peak oil aware and who did not make the plunge into the housing bubble, I am now given the choice of where to live relative to my work, and how I get there. Since I sold my car, cut my electricity usage by 2/3rds, and completely cut out my natural gas usage- the tax burden I have in my current tax bracket would be greatly decreased. Is it my fault that I had to take a well paying job to support my high debt level to pursue a good education to get my high paying job (Well, maybe =) I certainly don't see how there is a net benefit to society to put everyone into debt, just to pay higher taxes on their income when they are trying to pay off that debt- when they could be happier and more efficient in a lower paying more fulfilling position.
Tax consumption, and there should also be a war tax put into the constitution, including any conflict initiated at the behest of the President- it would certainly make us think twice, and balance our budget. (There are too many problems to list I could go on and on).