The Oil Drum

18 comments on In today's New York Times

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Prolific Researcher on September 10, 2005 - 11:25am

Yes, it is good the NY times is starting to caught on, also it seems some economists are starting to catch on too. I just read in an article, that according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist "Oil may average $84 a barrel next year, $93 in 2007, and $100 in the fourth quarter of 2007, as demand outpaces supply". Full article can be found at, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aWJgsbCFqveY&refer=canada

I know in the peak Oil debate it is common to pit the Geologists vs. the "Flat Earth Economists". However, I think there is a shift taking place. This old battle of "Geologists vs. Economists" may have been the core of the debate five years ago. Today though, it seems economists, major oil companies and even countries are taking sides in the Peak Oil debate (fight).

(A boxing ring appears with a spot light in the middle, a man walks up to the microphone and begins the introductions)

Boxing Introducer's Voice:
In The "Peak Oil" Corner... we have the GREAT UNDERDOG for the last 50 years... Weighing in at 500 million souls and 11 trillion dollars GDP... we have, the European Governments, British Petroleum, Chevron Texaco, Matt Simmons, Jim Cramer, and their fearless leader HUBBERT...M......KING!!!!. (applause) (applause) (applause)

In The "Cheap Oil Forever" Corner...we have the Raining Champion for the last One Hundred and Fifty Years...Weighing in at 1.8 Billion souls and 18 trillion dollars GDP...we have, the US government, the Chinese Government, Exxon Mobile, Daniel Yergin, CERA, and their fearless leader, STEVE...oil's going back to $30...FORBES!!! (applause) (applause) (applause)

Boxing Introducer's Voice again: "We would like to thank Mr. King... who could not be with us tonight, but he was the Original Under Dog, in this fight for the future of mankind and back then he was all alone and everyone else was in the other corner. We all remember his Big Fight in 1970, when Mr. King got his first K.O. in the U.S. Peak Oil Title Fight. Now, 35 years hence, we are assembled once more for the Global Championships, for the World Peak Oil Title. The corners are more balanced now and I think Mr. King would be proud of the rag tag bunch that have taken up his under dog status. Let's have a fair fight gentlemen."

Boxing Introducer's Voice again: "Remember the Prize for the "World Peak Oil Title" is....uncountable Trillions of dollars in GDP, the high standard of living we all enjoy, and our "Very Way of Life".

Boxing Introducer's Voice again: Lastly, note that the time line for tonight's fight, is just 5 Rounds (years). That means if, NO winner is declared by then and NO quick action is taken, the Fight will be Declared a Draw and the World Losses. Then, we get to welcome back our old friend ..."The Dark Ages".

Make your bets ladies and gentlemen!!! LET'S..... GET READY TO RUBLE!!! DING... DING... DING (bell rings)

Me talking again: "It would be almost comical, if it were not so true."

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

stiffpicken on September 10, 2005 - 12:28pm

you might need to add someone to the UNDERDOG corner ... is bill clinton now a peak oiler?

quote: "It's not clear to me that there will be enough oil to produce that growth according to traditional energy use patterns."

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Ripley on September 10, 2005 - 2:20pm

Nice catch on Clinton.

I'd be pretty ticked off if I were the Chinese. The U.S. consumes ONE-FOURTH of the world's total oil production, wastes it with huge SUVs and spread out housing, doesn't even make much anymore, and the Chinese are the ones who are supposed to cut back.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

ChrisPhoenix on September 10, 2005 - 4:22pm

China buys SUV's too. In fact, I read a while ago that SUV's sell fastest over there.

From what I saw (in a one-week visit last spring), the main traffic law is "The bigger vehicle has the right-of-way." But I suspect it's more than that: if you get successful, you want to buy toys. Same as here, but maybe even more so.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

mw on September 11, 2005 - 6:38am

Its been reported recently that signficant taxes are being applied to larger vehicles in China (I seem to recall > 20% or some such number) - a note of it was made on TOD1 or TOD2.

China is not stupid nor are they stuck to following exactly the same path we've been on. They are working on smaller fuel efficient vehicles; they have an alternative fuels strategy; they are working on trying to produce much safer nuclear technology.

Every nation which has grown strong and remained strong did so on the back of cheap energy. I for one do not believe that they are ignorant of that, nor are they likely to simply assume that it will be easy, or even achievable, to gain access to 1/4 or more of annual world petroleum output for their growing economy which would be implied by simply following the path we took.

I have to believe (perhaps better put as want to believe) that they are somewhat smarter than that and are working plans B, C, D, E etc. If not, we are all doomed!

My sense is that they might be peak oilers themselves, and perhaps caught by surprise by the latest round of tightness, we might see evidence of them speeding up plans in that regard.