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22 comments on Peak Oil Media IEA 2008 WEO Edition
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22 comments on Peak Oil Media IEA 2008 WEO Edition
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I’ve read many of the recently published books about energy, climate, and our environment. I have come to the conclusion that fossil fuels will be in short supply in 10 years or so and really nasty climate changes will occur in 20 to 30 years. There seems to be more likelihood that these timeframes could shorten than lengthen. Increasing world population of humans is a significant impediment to mitigating these problems. On the other hand, I see very little evidence that governments (local, state, federal) have come to any similar conclusions. Here in Wisconsin, we continue to plan for all kinds of projects that serve the needs of our car culture – we talk about the need to accommodate the increased numbers of cars that will be on our roads in 10 or 20 years. There is never any truly serious discussion about mass transit or other ways to reduce the number of automobiles.
How can it be that people who can build a spaceship cannot see these problems? If someone could convince me that I’m exaggerating the problems, I’d be happy. But, every time I hear a claim about there being plentiful oil for the next century or sun spots are the driver of climate changes, etc – I find that these claims are the exaggeration or simply a lie. I keep coming back to the same conclusion: we have a problem!
Political party and religions affiliations, for most people, are simply a function of the family in which they grew up – children of a republican catholic family are most likely (rebels aside) to vote republican and attend a catholic church as adults. People will passionately hold to beliefs about spirit worlds and after lives – when there is zero scientific proof. So, is it the case that our car culture and energy usage are so deeply embedded in our view of the world and subconscious beliefs that we just cannot imagine life being any different? We just don’t want to talk about scientific evidence that contradicts our deepest beliefs?
Some authors repeat the story of Christopher Columbus and his ships arriving in the “New World” – for some time the native people could not “see” the ships anchored a few hundred feet off shore because they had zero concept of a “ship”. Some people speculate that the native folks just assumed the ships were clouds or fog or some other familiar object. Are we as a nation just unable to grasp the nature of these impending problems? Regardless of how smart and clever we may otherwise be are we just seeing some innocent clouds that will blow away before long?
Hey Bicycle Dave,
I'm in pretty much the same boat as you. I first learned of Peak Oil in 2006 by reading JHK's "The Long Emergency." I had made of the same reactions that you did. At first, I researched the heck out of it and tried desperately to find some logical argument that the coming energy crisis wasn't going to be a problem. The more I learned, the more I realized that we had a HUGE problem. From energy, my studies branched out to learning about population (overpopulation). The real urgency is that the world can only meet the needs of about 1-2 Billion people on a sustainable basis. With the world population now at just under 7 billion and a projected population in 2050 of 9 billion....It's a simple math problem. 9 billion people competing for 1-2 billion people's worth of food. Not a pretty picture. Like you I was so angry that nothing was being done on a governmental level. I started to learn what drives politics. That was an easy answer...Money drives politics. Every politician who makes it to office has to sell their souls to get there. They are completely bought and paid for. If they don't adhere to the party line, they're out. Ron Paul is a good example.
Then I was thinking...Why are the powers that be (TPTB), the ones with the endless supply of money, concerned enough about this problem. Peak Oil is not hard to understand. In fact, for the longest time, TPTB seemed to intentionally ignore and obfuscate the issue. I couldn't figure it out. What would make them do that? It's just as much a problem for them as it is for us....Right?
Well this lead me to study our money/financial system. I'll preface this by telling you that I have my MBA from Penn State, and I never learned how our financial system truley works until I read "Web of Debt" by Ellen H. Brown. What an eye opener.
You see Dave, our financial/money system is the root cause of the inaction. Money is ONLY created in our country (and most of the world) when someone goes into debt for it. When you take out a mortgage, the bank creates brand new money to give to you. It's not money that they already had. The problem is that you owe all that money back to the bank PLUS interest. Well if the banks only create the principle then where the heck are you supposed to find the money for the interest???!!!
Answer: More and more people must continue to take on debt so that you can get a piece of the funds that they borrowed and siphon that back to the bank. The system is flawed because its ALWAYS short on cash. There will always be bankruptcies with fractional reserve lending. Period. So this dynamic is what causes the "growth imperative." As long as our economy is growing, there will be enough cash out there for most people to get ahold of and make their payments. If the economy stagnates or shrinks, you've got real financial pain felt by many people.
So now we're back full circle because economies run on energy. Less energy means a smaller economy. So we find that it's about keeping the fractional reserve lending Ponzi scheme alive, no matter the costs. TPTB will stop at nothing to maintain "business as usual" because it's about power to them. They control the money supply, they can finance the politicians (who are merely puppets), and these politicians do their bidding. That's why you'll never see meaningful governmental change that acknowleges the scarcity of resources and the need to switch our monetary system towards one that can nuture a sustainable economy that is healthy when it's shrinking, constant, or expanding. Such an economy is possible and actually exists today on the island of Guernsey (spelling?) Lincoln and Hilter both had such economies too.
Realistically, the only way I see our financial system making this radical change is if the current system collapses. We're well on our way to that.
I hope this helps you to realize why you aren't seeing the logical changes that one would surely expect from our elected officials.
If anyone sees where I got any of this wrong, please correct me.
TS
TS - You've got it pretty much right, in my view. I'll second the recommendation for reading Web of Debt, and also recommend Money as Debt as a condensed video version, available on the web. The documentary Zeitgeist (also on the web) and its sequel also speak of this inherent fallibility of our debt-based financial system (cascading into collapse around us as we speak) and of its manipulation by TPBT. It takes putting together the very real physical limits to growth with the ultimate fantasy that is our fiat currency financial system to give one a complete picture of the predicament of industrial civilization. And while I'm spouting recommendations, let me also throw Culture Change by Alexis Ziegler out there, available at conev.org.
Thanks for those additional resources. I'll be sure to check them out.
TS
Good comment TS. Web of Debt is now on my Amazon wish list. I really hope that you are wrong about a complete collapse of our financial system being needed and also in progress. But, that may well be the case. My guess would be that this whole affair will proceed somewhat in the fashion of a bear stock market - we will rebound somewhat and then hit a new low. This will be followed by another rebound that is weaker and then a another new low......
Hey you can read some of the chapters from "Web of Debt" at www.webofdebt.com
Ellen also published a couple articles per month at this site as well. She uses the principles that she describes in her book and then talks about the current events in that light.
When your focus is zoomed in really closely, and on a short enough time frame, it can look like natural highs and lows. But when you zoom out a bit it starts to look like a rocky downslope. Zoom out even further and it looks like complete collapse. To me, your words are describing a collapse. Most infamous periods in time were never given the labels in real time. It takes hindsight to see a particular period for what it was.
I hope I'm wrong too. I've been hoping that I'd be wrong ever since I first learned about peak oil. Time will tell. Strap yourself in, I think it'll be a bumpy ride no matter what happens.
TS