In August 2008, the fire in the BTC pipeline and then the Russian invasion of Georgia shut down crude oil flow from the area of the Caspian Sea. Hurricanes Gustav on September 1, 2008, and Ike on September 13, 2008, shut down oil refineries in the southern states reducing demand for crude oil.

Drop in crude on every graph is dramatic. IMVHO all the other graphs are fudging the numbers in a way. Including biofuels in total liquids is particularly deceptive. Given the massive inputs of other fossil fuels in producing these fuels, counting them in totals seems to be double dipping to me.

Even considering particular above-ground circumstances, it certainly looks as though we are slipping off the plateau for crude. At the very least, these data show that 2008 was no dramatic new peak, just a jagged point of the plateau, and probably the jagged edge of the cliff.

OECD demand went down by a whopping 1.2 mb/d from July 2008 to August 2008. That's why oil prices did not skyrocket when the BTC pipeline was attacked and the war in Georgia broke out. Total OECD demand destruction was 3.9 mb/d between November 2007 and August 2008. OPEC now cuts 4.2 mb/d, almost equal to the earlier drop in OECD demand. The turning point was really end of last year when the recession in the US started. In 2008 it was superimposed by a short-lived OIL-YMPIC boom pushing oil prices to $147 a barrel.

The way we have to look at peak oil (2005-2008) now is that the 1st wave of oil price shocks (plus the precondition of accumulated debt in the banking sector)damaged the system beyond repair, bringing it prematurely into decline mode with several negative feed back loops in place now. If banks had been informed about the approaching oil peak and therefore more prudent with their investments, the oil supply system could have bumped along on the plateau until the hitherto growing group of countries would have also peaked and until the OPEC rebound had run out of steam, perhaps within 1-2 years.