And this story on Bloomberg about credit markets still frozen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZBA3Luek4AY&refer=home

Between all this and today's Denninger, I feel like withdrawing all my money, including deferred comp and IRA, and burying it in the backyard.

Be sure you have had plenty of caffiene and are ready for a very sobering discussion from Denninger today. The more I read from him and others along the same wavelength I believe we are really in for some very interesting times. Hand tool and garden accessories should be at the top of many people's Christmas list this year. John

OK that's it for me. I've gathered my nuts, so to speak.
My money is in cash spread out in euros, dollars and pounds. My mortgage is paid off, my house insulated and sporting the most efficient boiler system etc. I have generator, 1000l fuel capacity and solid fuel backup and LED standby lighting. I have 120mpg scooter and electric bike. I have a big garden with great soil ( had NPK /pH checked when we landscaped ).
Since the £/Yen plummeted I bought forward buying new plasma and audiophile AV system, 2000 CDs, 400 DVDs and 3000+ books.
F*ck all this. If economy really goes tits up then I'm settling in for a while. I'll spend my time leccy pedalling between friends or reading improving books when the wife's in and watching bluray 7.1 TrueHD porn when she's not.
They'll cut industry before home power then personal cars will go ... I figure we'll be down to basic food and power in the worst case. If it goes further than that I'm off to the States with plutocrat Uncle Stan from Long Island :)

I seriously doubt people will withdrawn their money even if returns are negative. What are they going to do with it? The risk of having large amounts stuffed in your mattress of buried in the back yard is as great as having it in an account losing money every month IMO.

Besides if inflation is factored in, people have been losing principle for years and years. This is why the savings rate is so low in the U.S.. I just bought a new Ford Ranger instead of letting my savings sit in a CD at 2-3%. At least I can get some use, tax advantages and a little fun out of it. I did not need the truck as I have two others.

The inflation figures just put out by the government are pure garbage. After substitution, hedonic and other seat of the pants adjustments, I have no faith in them at all.

Just this week my Medicare supplemental premium rose again. And Social Security notified me and all the other beneficiaries that they will be deducting a larger Medicare deduction from checks. So the increase that was given is partially taken back, even as small as it was.

Being a farmer, next year's seed input costs which I paid last month to get the discount rose from about $28 a unit for soybean seed to about $37 per unit. Corn seed rose from $112 per unit to $124 per unit. The drop in gasoline prices, while significant, does not out weigh these increases.

For those not willing to let money sit in accounts that lose money, taking it out and spending is the best thing to do. Of course this is exactly what the powers that be want. They will get their way, savers be damned.

Losing money every month isn't really what I'm worried about.

I'm worried that they'll all go Madoff/Enron. The money will simply vanish - overnight. And not being a billionaire, nobody's going to bail me out.

As Denninger points out, Madoff continued for ten years, despite multiple warnings (in writing to regulators) and widespread suspicion. How do you know your broker, your bank, your retirement plan, is not a Madoff?

That is why firms that sell physical gold and silver are having record years. OTOH maybe we are just being cynical-maybe Obama will usher in a new era of hope and prosperity.

"maybe Obama will usher in a new era of hope and prosperity"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

No thanks, I think I'll stick with cynical

Time Magazine = USA Today = National Enquirer = 60 Minutes = entertainment only.

Bernard Madoff is the "person" of The Year, 2008, hands down.

He is the Poster Boy for our economy, and maybe our entire political system.

I vote for Henry Paulson and his look a like Kashkari. (Me and mini-me)

He got second. Seriously.

LOL. He did indeed!

Sarkozy was one of the runners up as well, probably for marrying Carla Bruni :-)

They got Palin as well! Brilliant. Drill, Baby Drill!

is that pronounced "Cash Carry"?

And why is Goldman Sachs giving bonuses for its employees, based on the bailout money Paulson and Cash carry delivered? Which you and I are paying for. excuse me while I go puke my guts up.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=11145669&ch=...

Give me the freakin money, i'll stimulate the economy. GEEZ!! It's 5 O:clock somewhere, bottoms up. Cheers.....

leanan said: "How do you know your broker, your bank, your retirement plan, is not a Madoff?"

I would add;

How do you know your broker, your bank, your retirement plan, YOUR COUNTRY is not a Madoff?

The screwed up thing is that if somebody is accused of stealing a $20,000 car he gets arrested and goes in the tank. If somebody is accused of stealing the equivalent of 250,000 cars he gets to walk around, albeit with a bracelet.
something is not right here....
WeekendPeak

And this is something new? Unfortunately, it has almost always been thus. Forget the fairy tales they told you in school, this is how the world really works. And yes, it does suck.

They say if you owe the bank $1000 dollars and can't pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $50,000,000,000 and can't pay, the Bank has a problem...

better to take the depreciation at once as you drive off the lot than slow bleeding inflation ?

The Medicare insurance cost did NOT go up this year. All Medicare recipients received a 5.8% benefit increase starting in January. Your Medicare could go down if - (1) you signed up for the Part D drug benefit and that went up, or (2) your 2007 income tax return showed enough income that you are now being charged a higher rate based upon a recent law change - e.g., couples with adjusted gross incomes in excess of $170,000 per year pay more on a sliding scale up to a Medicare monthly premium maximum of $308.30 per month compared to the $96.40 for those with incomes below $170,000.

Sounds like a good idea to me. Maybe you could invest in brandy for barter purposes.

You still HAVE money in IRA's and 401Ks? With your long-term prognosis of the economy I figured you'd be more in cash.

Gold is up nicely. A balance between cash and gold seems to be holding value pretty well overall. I can't argue against spending extra cash for durable "personal" commodities like guns and tools though.

I haven't put any new money in for awhile, but I had a lot already invested. I've been saving for retirement since my teens, and save a lot more than the average American. I have been seriously considering taking the penalty and pulling it all out, but haven't actually done it yet. Partly out of laziness, partly out of uncertainty. Maybe we will get the inflationary version of the apocalypse (though that's looking less and less likely).

I keep contributing to my 401k because of company match. I put a dollar in, they put a dollar in and viola! I've already doubled my money. The stock market would have to drop in half in order for it to be viable to *not* contribute to my 401k. In fact, I'm still better contributing, doubling my money, and then withdrawing it immediately (even accounting for penalties).

I don't get a company match. All I get is the tax break. And not even that for the Roth IRA.

Many companies are eliminating 401(k) matches, because of the bad economy. If your company does that, will you still contribute?

Nope. The stock market will be a fools game until inflation hits (and beleive me, it will hit- TPTB will choose inflation over depression, and I have no doubt about the continued helicopter drops, even if it means ruining the dollar in the long term). And even then, the stock market won't keep up with inflation.

I have NO doubt that TPTB will choose inflation over deflation.

I just don't think it will work.

Bernanke is dropping bundles of dollars as we speak. It hasn't resulted in inflation yet because we still have a way to go with deleveraging. Once that's done, the value of the dollar will drop like a rock.


Credit crunch? What credit crunch?

As I said yesterday: In 2008, there was just ONE stock market, which soared darmatically, the one of Zimbabwe. Hyperinflation has also its advantages.

"And not even that for the Roth IRA."

you will get that on the tax free profits after age 59 1/2. that kind of tax break could break ya.

Only if there are any profits.

On Roth IRA.....Only if there are any profits.

You still get a break, you can't use the loss to decrease your taxable income! But, that should simplify your math at least.

This could put you on the post-peak most eligible list.

I have two single sons...good with shovels...don't want kids.

Pete

Not really. It's more than a little annoying. I should have blown on all my money on clothes, gadgets, a fancy car, a McMansion, cruises and vacations, etc., like my friends. I have a feeling we're all going to end up in the same boat in the end. :-P

Actually if you'd just shifted your 401Ks to the cash fund, maybe cashed some out with the tax hits, and then moved from cash to gold as things worsen you'd have been really well off in a few more years, I think. I'm not a big fan of TIPS as I don't trust the Feds to provide any warning before rules change, but certainly people are doing OK with those now too.

It almost feels like this financial storm is designed to shake value out of everything, and your only hope is to be nimble in maintaining employment and moving your assets. Nothing is safe all the way through.

Still, a frugal mindset is a valuable asset in and of itself.

Silver...hard, hold in your hand, bury in the ground...Silver.

Only way to go.

Nah, I say the Totoneila route... Fertilizer.

Hello Geckolizard,

Speaking of I-NPK and my speculative 'Federal Reserve Banks of I-NPK'-->China appears to be taking the lead while Bernanke & Paulson haven't a clue:

http://www.eeo.com.cn/ens/Industry/2008/12/17/123962.shtml
-------------------
MARKET RESCUE: Yunnan Builds Metal and Fertilizer Reserves

The scheme announced last week aimed to help local companies that faced difficulties in selling their products to put them aside as reserves. The scheme plan to store up to one million tons of non-ferrous metal and 500,000 tons of fertilizer.

The reserves would be financed by bank loans secured by companies using their products as mortgage, thus allowing the cash strapped companies to gain access to liquidlity. Meanwhile the provincial government would subsidize the loan interest and storage cost.
-------------------
If the credit crisis continues until nothing is moving: those locally stocked tons of fertilizer will provide much food security for this area in China. Recall from my earlier weblink that Uralkali has shut in 50% of their production. As long time readers of my posting already know: We are evolved to sit in the dark, but we can't do starvation. Have you hugged your bag of NPK today?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Very nice. Thanks.

I'm not a big fan of precious metals. Worth having some, sure. But I don't trust them to hold their value if things get really bad.

Like they say...in a Depression, there is no safe haven.

I am partial to Copper alloy and lead myself. Full metal Jacket, Hollow point boat tail, 7.62 mm about 168 grain. That, a descent set of re-loading equipment, some casings, primer and powder. But then again, maybe a balanced portfolio... Copper, lead, silver, gold, Single Malt Scotch, Salt, fertilizer and about 40 acres in the middle of nowhere may be the best plan...

Can you put your 401K into cash, or something equivalent to cash? That strikes me as less drastic than having to pay the IRS penalty.

The problem with pensions is the rate of return required - this forces you to invest in something, stocks, shares, property, gold etc.

Unfortunately pension savings are special in that the pensioner requires a certain income each month.

Say the pensioner requires to convert some shares (or gold!) to $1000 each month then there must be a counterparty willing and able to buy $1000 of shares each month.

If the workers only want to buy $50 worth then the pensioner is stuffed, $50 is all he can extract no matter how many shares he has.

Think demographics/babyboomers and companies no longer contributing to pensions/benefits as they did in the past!

Yesterday's DB link to the Fortune magazine interviews was helpful. Given the uniformly bearish assessments by experienced people, and summing up from recent discussions on TOD, it seems that moving toward tax exempt bonds and TIPS (treasury inflation-protected securities) now, through 2009/early 2010, is a good way to go. Anyone think this is *not* a good idea?

Reread Denninger. The treasury market is the last bubble.

I like it when Denninger makes a joke like this:

"If Bernanke won't cut this crap out Congress needs to do so, and do it now. "

Congress needs to step in ??? As if we should expect lucid, intelligent, decisive action from that Political Pigsty?

How about Congress votes to disband the Union, right after the Bush-Paulson-Greenspan-Bernanke trials and subsequent public hangings.

The joke is that politicians make political decisions, sometimes in the guise of an economic one. It seems foolish to me to look to government for economic help.

You might invest in infrastructure.

To be all Technocopian and stuff, a PV panel array with a 12-year payback (varies depending on your local elec rates) is giving you an 8.3% ROI annually.

As I've also noted before that we pay some $400/kwh for AA batteries, there are surely ways to sell power at much more lucrative rates, if you want to get creative.. and can find a conciliatory or desperate market. I'd say it would generally be in portable power applications. (?) In my business, video production, I've been setting up a system to rent solar charging packages to remote field productions, to keep their cameras, laptops, walkies, screwguns and sunguns running.

We'll see if there are any takers.. might only take a few jobs to pay for the hardware, which should be good for years and years.

Bob

One additional thing people might consider if they have a whole life policy, is to withdraw the accumulated dividends. I did this some time ago on the basis that the were totally vulnerable if the company went under. It wasn't big bucks by many standards but they were important money to me.

Todd

Hi Leanan a word of caution, one of my friends friends, a group of 3 of them had kept 100,000+ in their homes, they were International students and apparently very worried about their money being kept in Australian banks.

Well turns out their house was robbed, three people came with a gun, a knife and a baseball bat I believe and took all the money and quite a few other things.

The criminals are everywhere, in the banks and out on the streets it seems :-(

Banks have safe deposit boxes. Even if the bank fails, what is in the box is yours.

The Gold Confiscation Of April 5, 1933
From: President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt
To: The United States Congress
Dated: 5 April, 1933
Presidential Executive Order 6102
Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion and Gold Certificates By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5(b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, entitled

An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes~',

in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists,

I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of the order:

Section 1. For the purpose of this regulation, the term 'hoarding" means the withdrawal and withholding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates from the recognized and customary channels of trade. The term "person" means any individual, partnership, association or corporation.

Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933, except the following:

(a) Such amount of gold as may be required for legitimate and customary use in industry, profession or art within a reasonable time, including gold prior to refining and stocks of gold in reasonable amounts for the usual trade requirements of owners mining and refining such gold.

(b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins.

(c) Gold coin and bullion earmarked or held in trust for a recognized foreign government or foreign central bank or the Bank for International Settlements.

(d) Gold coin and bullion licensed for the other proper transactions (not involving hoarding) including gold coin and gold bullion imported for the re-export or held pending action on applications for export license.

Section 3. Until otherwise ordered any person becoming the owner of any gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates after April 28, 1933, shall within three days after receipt thereof, deliver the same in the manner prescribed in Section 2; unless such gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates are held for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a),(b) or (c) of Section 2; or unless such gold coin, gold bullion is held for purposes specified in paragraph (d) of Section 2 and the person holding it is, with respect to such gold coin or bullion, a licensee or applicant for license pending action thereon.

Section 4. Upon receipt of gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates delivered to it in accordance with Section 2 or 3, the Federal reserve bank or member bank will pay thereof an equivalent amount of any other form of coin or currency coined or issued under the laws of the Unites States.

Section 5. Member banks shall deliver alt gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned or received by them (other than as exempted under the provisions of Section 2) to the Federal reserve banks of there respective districts and receive credit or payment thereof.

Section 6. The Secretary of the Treasury, out of the sum made available to the President by Section 501 of the Act of March 9, 1933, will in all proper cases pay the reasonable costs of transportation of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates delivered to a member bank or Federal reserve bank in accordance with Sections 2, 3, or 5 hereof, including the cost of insurance, protection, and such other incidental costs as may be necessary, upon production of satisfactory evidence of such costs. Voucher forms for this purpose may be procured from Federal reserve banks.

Section 7. In cases where the delivery of gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates by the owners thereof within the time set forth above will involve extraordinary hardship or difficulty, the Secretary of the Treasury may, in his discretion, extend the time within which such delivery must be made. Applications for such extensions must be made in writing under oath; addressed to the Secretary of the Treasury and filed with a Federal reserve bank. Each applications must state the date to which the extension is desired, the amount and location of the gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates in respect of which such application is made and the facts showing extension to be necessary to avoid extraordinary hardship or difficulty.

Section 8. The Secretary of the Treasury is hereby authorized and empowered to issue such further regulations as he may deem necessary to carry the purposes of this order and to issue licenses there under, through such officers or agencies as he may designate, including licenses permitting the Federal reserve banks and member banks of the Federal Reserve System, in return for an equivalent amount of other coin, currency or credit, to deliver, earmark or hold in trust gold coin or bullion to or for persons showing the need for same for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a), (c), and (d) of Section 2 of these regulations.

Section 9. Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order or these regulation or of any rule, regulation or license issued there under may be fined not more than $10,000, or,if a natural person may be imprisoned for not more than ten years or both; and any officer, director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.

This order and these regulations may be modified or revoked at any time.
/s/
Franklin D. Roosevelt
President of the United States of America
April 5, 1933

Some economists argue that this was actually "helicopter money" - an attempt to throw money from helicopters, a la Bernanke. Since the government actually paid more than the going rate for the gold it confiscated.

But yes, safety deposit boxes aren't particularly safe from the government.

Dennniger is still plugging the idea that the rise in oil price was because of speculation. That because it was no longer profitable to invest in CDOs and RMBS, all that money went into commodities like oil, which explained the rise to $150 a barrel.

As far as I understand, the only ways to increase the market price of oil is by increase of physical oil demanded, decrease of physical oil supplied, or via mass delusion or mania.

So, here's what I've said before about money.

It's important to remember that money is a tool, and the tool has been strained so much that it's starting to break. Money is not like air, water, or food. It was invented by humans, and like all human tools it occasionally needs to be replaced.

In the interim, also remember that the tool of money was invented as an abstract hold of value of the things or services you actually need or want. It represents the real estate, the implements, the food, the training for your skills, other peoples' services, the fuel, the finished products that you need or want. Money is just another tool to get you those things.

There is a scene from the 1953 classic, War of the Worlds, near the end of the movie where people are all trying to get on trucks to get out of the cities. One panicked businessman pleads, "I'll give you $1,000 to let me get on!" And the reply is, "Money isn't worth anything anymore!" The businessman gets clocked in the jaw and is left behind.

What should you put your money into? Things and services of real-world value:
* community infrastructure
* food staples, seeds, and land
* skills training and tools
* supplies
* perhaps something to trade (anything from alcohol to entheogens to cigarettes to precious metals)
* something you will enjoy

In other words, put your money into where you were going to eventually put your money anyway. Use the tool before the tool breaks.

Yergin did have something to valuable to add, I think, about the run-up in prices.

In his June 25, 2008 testimony, he runs through some basic numbers. From the BP "US Energy In Context" (p. B-45) (emphasis added):

He [Yergin] noted that the global economy exhibited 5 percent growth per year over the past five years, which he termed the best economic performance in a generation. In the five years between 1998 and 2002, world oil demand grew at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent (an absolute growth of 4.2 million barrels per day), whereas in the five years between 2003 and 2007, world oil demand grew at 2.1 percent (a total absolute growth of 8.2 million barrels per day). But there were difficulties in increasing supply to keep up with this increase in global demand. Reasons Yergin cited for a slow supply response included limitations around the world on access to areas for development, uncertainty about investment, fiscal, and regulatory regimes, and a worldwide shortage of “people, equipment, skills, and commodities.”

Of course he doesn't mention the possibility that the decline rate is adding headwind, too.

BTW, in your list you forgot books. My list of essential books is below, and I'm open to suggestions:
http://www.postpeakliving.com/guide-to-post-peak-living/quick-kits/essen...

An old saying around our way, If you want to make money there are only three areas to invest in - food, death and sex and not necessarily in that order.
This was recently highlighted to me when an elderly friend died - her fairly basic funeral cost A$9000.

Food, death, and sex. I think they're great money makers not because they're integral parts of our existence, but also because there are so many misunderstandings and misconceptions about them.

This makes it easy to take advantage of people's needs in dealing with them.

Because men and women aren't on the same page when it comes to sex, they don't understand where each other is coming from, there are hookers and Johns. Because people don't understand the importance of the quality of the food they eat, there are Monsanto, ADM, and Cargill. Because people don't understand how to deal with another's passing, they think nothing of spending many thousands of dollars for a funeral and burial.

IMO the public doesn't understand the mathematical difference between a TRILLION and a BILLION. If the public understood that approx 600 times the proposed auto bailout has already been thrown away (with little discussion) they would be outraged.