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107 comments on Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Crisis this Winter? (Part 2 of 2)
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107 comments on Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Crisis this Winter? (Part 2 of 2)
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Thanks for the further detail - that indeed does not sound as worrying as I initially thought. And surely enough the Dutch and Belgians and Norwegians will sell some of their own spare capacity. At least the coming few years.
It would be an interesting exercise to follow each import connection and see what the issues on the other side are. What assumptions need to hold for these connections to deliver their capacity? Of course the whole peak story, but are there other complicating factors?
Real time data on nat gas flows into National Grid may be found at Instantaneuos Flows report.
Norwegian nat gas exports is still set to grow for some years, but as of this winter there is little or no extra production capacity partly due to close down of the pipeline between Kvitebjørn and Kollsnes due to a pipeline leakage. However, this was the situation last year also.
Belgium has little indigenous nat gas production and is themselves net nat gas importers. As of now, it seems that the only additional pipelined nat gas may be purchased from Russia transited through Ukraine and Central Europe to enter the UK through the Interconnector between Zeebrugge (Belgium) and Bacton.
The Dutch have considerable nat gas reserves and their production is in decline and is forecast to continue its decline. So far, this year Dutch nat gas exports to UK are a little down. That does of course not necessarily mean that they are unable to increase exports later this winter. Dutch nat gas is presently shipped through (BBL).
Then there is the possibilities of increased LNG imports.