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119 comments on DrumBeat: December 20, 2008
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119 comments on DrumBeat: December 20, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Methane Leaking Into Arctic Ocean
MSM is not likely to pay much attention to this but it may turn out to be a real harbinger of things to come. It could just be the most important news of the decade. Of the century?
It's the most ominous news since the report of arctic ice melting 30 years ahead of schedule. Looks like even us old farts will live to see AGW predictions realized. (and then some)
That ancient seabed methane is the real old fart. Our contributions (personally and via cattle) may pale in comparison.
Agreed that methane releases from the tundra and seabed may turn out to be the Black Swan that trumps our other concerns.
IMO, we are just marking time until the next repeat of a Storegga or Unimak event:
http://www.semparpac.org/tsunami.jpg
EDIT: Won't be much fun for a city where the tsunami throws/break ups a giant LNG tanker against the docks or rocks.
it's happened before. Though the last time it happened was in the Permian era and is known as the great dieing. Looks like we are playing the remake here, just like the original except that instead of the formation of the Siberian traps dumping carbon into the air as the first part of the ball rolling it's us.
It's Gaia saying "pull my finger".
But, but, but.. I was told that we have nothing to worry about - it's snowing in the Himalaya's for Pete's sake!
But in all seriousness. It's only a matter of time before the the remaining deniers are forced to sing a different, and unfortunately accurate, tune: "Climate change is real, but it's far too late to do anything."
What a disgrace.
Thank god for Leanan's inclusive drumbeats.
Right, and the temperature on Neptune is rising, or some dumb crap like that.
I have no idea where the denialists get this nonsense when 1) there are so few actual data points on the outer planets; 2) they can't understand the spectrum of CO2 nor explain why other planets' weather is predictive of the terrestrial climate.
Neptune has a more eccentric orbit than Earth. In terms of it's solar year of 164.79 years, it is approaching it's perihelion in 2045. In terms of it's solar year, it is now in spring (about April 1st). Solar radiation in > "black body" radiation out, so Neptune is warming up.
The solar radiation is concentrated on the South Pole (Neptune has a severe orbital tilt and "presents" just that end towards the sun near perihelion).
http://www.universetoday.com/2007/09/18/neptunes-south-pole-is-the-warme...
Simple orbital mechanics,
Alan
In reality, we don't know if this is dangerous or not. In absence of certain knowledge though this is like driving along a cliff with the wheels just at the edge.
We often read stories about old people who grew up in the horse and buggy age and now have witnessed space flight, computers, flat screen TVs and such. I often think about how I was born into a world that was still safe and now we have driven the climate to the edge with CO2 emissions, forest clearings, pollution and such.
Words can't express how much this story affects me.
If our species was sane by any reasonable criteria, this story would trump all others.
Gavin and company at realclimate are NOT panicing about this subject. They think the methane releases will not be that large or rapid to be a major threat. That doesn't mean that it isn't yet another incremental increase in greenhouse gases, just that they don't think a runaway process is at all likely.
James Hansen and other scientists have been stressing the probability of tipping points for some time.The methane release in the Arctic could be a tipping point.We don't know but by the time we do it will be too late.
Meanwhile the naysayers relish their moment in the spotlight.The Yale Forum article linked by Leanan has some interesting comments on this phenomenen.
Any idea how much? If it's a small amount it will dissolve in the sea before reaching the atmosphere.
We need a measure of quantity -- I suggest MCE (Million Cow Equivalents).