U.S. total products supplied was down 4.9% YOY, not 11%. Demand for petroleum products has been recovering even though the economy has not. The price of gasoline is little more than a third of its peak summer price that triggered conservation measures.

While oil supplies rose last week, total crude + petroleum product inventories declined by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week average (-.3%). They were 3.1% above last year's levels.

Oil imports have increased YOY (four week average), it is not that recent demand for imports is falling faster than OPEC can cut.

Gasoline demand is recovering, while jet fuel sales remain depressed after the airlines cut unprofitable routes. The airlines have not fully recovered from the surge in jet fuel prices.

Some Canadian in-situ tar sands bitumen production has been cut due to high costs eliminating the profit margin (Connacher). Some new oil production projects were based on assumed higher oil prices. Some of these may have been modified, delayed, or cancelled.

Really the same thing in this case.

If we're on the downside of the curve and a reduction in demand merely pushes things back by a month, then whatever that amount is.. is the amount of production capacity you expect to lose in that month.