107 comments on Herman Daly: The Disconnection Between Financial Assets and Real Asssets
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107 comments on Herman Daly: The Disconnection Between Financial Assets and Real Asssets
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Your logic is a little flawed there. The idea is not to give a hard and fast upper boundry for the money supply. Instead the idea is to match the size of the money supply with the goods available for sale. By using gold, you end up with that hard upper limit and this can cause a shortage of money in the system if there are more goods and services to available for sale than the money supply can handle. The key is to be able to grow OR shrink the money supply in conjunction with the goods that the money will buy.
We've already had a period in our country where there was plenty of resources but not enough money.
TS
TS- My apologies for being a semi-idiot in these things, but I'd be most grateful if you could expand on that concept of a period of not enough money [supply], and why it was a problem (as the words "not enough" imply).
Hey Robin,
No apologies necessary. We're all learning and adapting in real time here.
The following quote is taken from:
http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation/
But there are many other sources of this information out there if you choose to dig out some more.
In most of the world today, the primary monetary system is based on the fractional reserve lending model. Money ONLY comes into existence when debt is incurred. Increasing overall debt is the only way to increase the money supply. When the faith is lost that loans will be repaid, there is a refusal or aversion to further lending. This dries up people's access to money. Money is a tool used to equate the value of certain goods and services amongst all goods and services. This system is what allows people to use their particular skills and resources to obtain their needs. So when the money supply dries up, you haven't taken any skills away from people. There's still the same amount of natural resources as there was just prior to the drought of money...What's changed is that the vehicle to enable transactions has dried up and the skills and resources aren't exchanged in the needed volume. I wish I could find the comment and I think it was here at TOD, but very real fears in the near future are that farmers won't be able to buy the grain and fertilizer needed to work their feilds. This doesn't meen that the seedstocks are low, or that the fertilizer they need doesn't exist. It just means that their societally accepted method for procuring these items is not available because they don't have access to money.
Deflationary depressions, as noted above in that quote, are one way to experience a shortage of money in the system. Another way is to tie the value of your money to a relatively scarce resource. This method works up to a point, but you run into a wall when you realize that there are more skills and goods that are available, just begging to be utilized but the money supply can't grow any further because it's limited due to it's peg against gold. Then the only way to grow the money supply without inflationary effects would be to find more gold. If you're trying to buy food and shelter, you don't care how much gold the world has. You see that there's plenty of food and shelter, you just don't have access to money because there's not enough gold to back it up. It's a real danger. So by tying the value of money to a mix of commodities, you can grow and shrink your money supply as the relative amounts of the commodities increase and decrease. This type of system is always backed by tangible value because the money isn't created until after the goods or services are in existance/performed.
Hope this answers your question. If not, I'll try again ;)
TS
If a market basket that costs $100 today costs $50 in ten years, that would be deflation. Not so good for those with long term contracts unless they are written with some sort of adjustment clause.
Imagine that there isn't enough money to enable all the services and goods to be sold. Wouldn't deflation happen in the ordinary course of events, so that the markets would adjust? Essentially one would have too much of a good or service and therefore the price would fall.
Thinking back to the Greenback movement, wasn't it all about expansion and breaking free of the trusts and banking system of the time? So if we DO NOT want the economy to expand, then locking down the money supply could help. It seems a very blunt instrument, but if the goal is to produce LESS and to keep it LOCAL [scrip], then deflation and some high level of taxation on wealth would seem appropriate. Even some sort of built-in depreciation on the currency. The aim is to encourage people NOT to shop, but to build the commonwealth and minimize private wealth.
Can one get from money supply to something that regulates the scale of the economy? Each unit of currency would then represent that share of economic activity. It doesn't seem to me it would have to be linked to a particular tangible asset.
cfm, confused in Gray, ME
Hey Dryki,
I'm not sure if you're specifically responding to my posts. That said, I'll try to address your points as if you were responding specifically to me. ;)
Under the different financial/monetary system that I've previously described, the money supply is matched with the goods available for sale. If there isn't enough money in the system, government spending can infuse the economy with additional money. If there's too much money, taxes, or interest paid on government loans can reduce the money supply. By having the money supply matched to the available goods, the system will neither be deflationary nor inflationary. Certain care must be made to monitor perishable items and make sure that the available pool of goods doesn't shrink drastically in relation to the money supply. At any rate, this system of currency was used by Abraham Lincoln to completely fund the Civil War.....WITHOUT income taxes. After the North won, Lincoln was preparing to unite the Northern and Southern financial system under his "greenback" style currency. He never accomplished this because he was assassinated. Hitler also used this same monetary system when he rose to power. When you look at the history of just how potent a debt-free monetary system can be, it's staggering. The one thing it does is take power away from the figureheads of the Central Banking/fractional reserve model. The real challenge in implementing this change is to overcome their resistance.
The way I see it, the goal for any new monetary system is to have the flexibility to grow and/or shrink (or to remain constant for that matter) your economy while still retaining a "healthy" economy. Under our present debt based/fractional reserve economy, it's never "healthy" unless it's perpetually growing. I'm not saying that all growth is bad, but to have that be the overpowering motivation is just not wise. It paints ourselves into a corner...Reduces our options. If our economy deflates to the point where people can't buy food, then government spending needs to fill that hole in the money supply. Conversely, if prices are rising because there's too much money in the system, then money taken out through taxes or as interest payments to the government will shrink the money supply. Our economy at our peak was definately too large and in need of shrinking. The ultimate size of a future "healthy" economy must be veiwed in terms of natural resources and how many non-renewables are consumed versus renewables. A stable sustainable economy that doesn't blow through renewables faster than they're renewed, and severly limits the depletion of non-renewables, would be the upper limit, IMHO. The managing of the money supply would be the tool to control the scope/size of the economy in relation to our resources.
Hope this helps explain my position more clearly.
TS
TS - Thanks for replying to my original question (to expand on that concept of a period of not enough money [supply], and why it was a problem (as the words "not enough" imply)).
However your reply (that such a period/problem is one of deflation) seems to be incorrect. There is deflation right now in the US (see Martin D Weiss of Money and Markets), caused by the defaulting on so much debt. That is deflation happening even though the money supply is not rigidly limited by gold and instead the Fed could just print more, indeed is doing so. So it appears that if the state/problem of "not enough" money is deflation, then it is not caused by not enough money and is not exclusively related to a gold/etc standard?
But I guess that respecting of a gold standard could increase the constraint (preventing printing of money), which is perhaps what you had in mind.
Hey Robin,
I agree that deflation is happening now. Yes the Fed is printing more money but you've got to follow all this new money through the economy. It's a pretty short trip so far. The banks which make loans to consumers and businesses are so risk averse right now that they are using the money to plug the holes in their balance sheets. The "trickle-down" effect isn't working and IMHO was never intended to trickle down, although they said that's what the purpose was. One aspect of the problem in the danger that the derivatives market implodes. We'll see a complete financial collapse if that happens. Again, IMO, this is why the Govt. and the Fed wouldn't allow AIG and certain investment banks to fail. Their exposure in derivatives was too great.
Right now, the limiting factor for money to reach the little guys is the risk aversion of the banks to lend. The fed can print all the money it wants and give it to the banks and ailing businesses, but this money can't flow freely through the economy, it might as well not exist. So what we have is a flawed system that has so many holes, that the money isn't finding it's way around.
A gold or silver standard is another way that restrains the money supply, yes. We're not tied to one right now and the primary reason was that it was working against the growth imperative that is a result of the compounding interest in the debt based money creation model. I agree that a gold standard isn't the best choice but not because it prohibits perpetual growth, rather it reduces flexibility of the money supply.
TS
One more comment ;)
I thinks it also bears mentioning that we need to start looking at money as a tool to facilitate transactions, and NOT as a store of value to an end in itself. By only creating money to match goods and services after they have been performed/created, you've implicitly backed the money with a real/tangible value. Compared to our current system where money is created and backed only the promise to repay with interest in the future. There is nothing "real" backing today's money. The idea then is that money used as a tool will allow you to assemble your own collection of goods/services that IS your investment portfolio. It brings us one step closer to understanding Man's place and relation to the natural systems.
TS
A simple but important point. Thanks for bringing that up. Presumably the depreciation in some scrip is exactly for that purpose - some of them seem to automatically devalue at something along the lines of 1% a month.
cfm in Gray, ME