147 comments on DrumBeat: December 27, 2008
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147 comments on DrumBeat: December 27, 2008
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Re: The Gas Tax
So, the economic geniuses at the NYT think that it's time to raise the gas tax? I guess they haven't been reading TOD lately. They don't mention Peak Oil, which will present a fundamentally different situation to the markets. Hopefully, the recession will end soon (well, that's what TPTB want us to believe). As oil production peaks out and this fact hits the economic scene, there's no way that the price of oil will remain near today's low prices. Adding a tax on top of another surge in oil prices would kill the recovery, perhaps before it begins. Adding a tariff to imported oil instead of a gas tax would likely spark a trade war, as such an approach would violate international trade laws. Why use a tax at all, when limiting imports thru a quota on petroleum imports would accomplish the same result? Or, better yet, why not just directly limit the amount of petroleum each individual could use thru a rationing system? With rationing, the economic disruption would be limited and inflation would be minimized.
E. Swanson
All good points Black-Dog. The problem is the perceived sense of control that the those in politics think they have. And many, not all of them, will do anything and tell anyone who will listen exactly what they want to hear as long as it provides what appears to be a "free" lunch. We have a great number of challenges coming down the pike at a rapid clip and very difficult decisions will have to be made that will hopefully benefit the good of many not just a few. I hope and pray that those who make the hard decisions will have what it takes to stay in the kitchen as things really begin to warm in the near future. John
There is always an excuse found not to raise gas taxes. Either a tax will prevent recovery or a tax will kill the recovery. Take your choice. Given the dramatic and largely unexpected plunge in oil and gas prices, and the appparent stabilization in demand, I would expect that oil and gas prices will turn around within the next 6 months. But I and I think most people simply don't really know when this is going to happen. A gas tax doesn't have to kill the recovery if it is used to put money in the hands of those who would fuel the recovery. In any event, any recovery, if it is even possible, will not be consumer driven but government driven.
The fact is that, as the NYT notes, it is not possible to get people to buy the small and efficient cars that the big 3 is being encouraged to produce with low gas prices. Light truck sales are already increasing as a percentage of car sales. If prices stay low, this will increase. For 95% of the people, the only thing that matters is current prices, the future be damned. We have seen this movie before in the 70s and it resulted in the great surge of trucks and SUVs during the 80s. We repeat this movie at our own peril.
I don't know if the NYT people are economic geniuses but they are right in this instance.
And, as I've said many times before, a dollar raised by a gas tax, does not equate to a dollar removed from the economy. Somewhere in the economy someone is using less gas because of the marginally increased cost. The market clearing price of oil is also marginally lower, because of the reduced demand. Oil exporting nations essentially subsidize the gas tax, via a lower price of oil. And the dollar, has not been destroyed, the government can recycle it in a number of ways. Either directly to the people, or via investment in public goods. The government has to fund its spending one way or another (unless it simply prints money, in which case inflation taxes everyone), so whining about any particular tax isn't called for. The real issues, are how much, and what sort of government services do we need. And what is the best way to raise the revenue to pay for them.
I'm not trying to come up with an excuse to stop an increase the gas tax. I think that you are correct that the present price for gasoline is too low. As I have stated previously, I think that the gas tax should have been increased gradually, starting after the first round of OPEC action in 1973. As a national policy, we could have added at least $2 per gallon to the pump price by now. But, our political/business class did not do this and wasted a great opportunity to modify everyone's perceptions and purchase decisions for more than 35 years. Simply put, the U.S. consumer should now be paying prices near those seen in Europe or Japan, IMHO.
But, that did not happen and now (if the Peak Oil Prophets are right), it's too late to increase the gas tax quickly enough to really make a difference. That's because, as the market showed us last summer, a small short fall in supply will likely result in a big boost in oil prices. If that spike was actually the result of peak production, the future can only give more of the same as the inexorable clash between increasing population and demand per capita meets declining supply. This is NOT a repeat of the world oil situation seen in the 1980's, when the Saudi's possessed extra production capacity and were able to flood the world market in 1986 and drive the price down to $10 per barrel.
Remember that our politicians are trying desperately to stimulate economic activity and a sudden $2/gallon boost in the gas tax would produce just the opposite. And, every few years down the road, the tax would need to be boosted again and again, as the global shortfall increased and inflation diluted the impacts of previous taxes. As the taxes are increased, I would expect that there would be many attempts to bypass the Tax Man, just as were seen in regards to liquor taxes during Prohibition. We have drug laws which act as 0% import quotas which has resulted in a thriving black market for drugs, so strict import quotas would be problematic as well.
I think we are faced with a dire situation, no matter what happens with the financial crisis. A system of rationing with tradeable allocations would hit the heart of the problem, which is individual consumption, and stimulate individual action to reduce oil demand, while minimizing further disruptive effects to the rest of the financial system. I think that a major requirement should be that unused allocations would revert to the "energy bank" after a short period, with payment at current market values being credited to the holder of those allocations. This would reward frugal consumers and minimize hoarding of allocations or physical product.
Fixing the energy problem is a bit like building a boat while living on another boat floating alongside. The old boat is rotting and there are holes in the bottom, so we need to finish building the new boat before the old one sinks. I fear that we may not get-er-done in time...
E. Swanson
Change ... no change.
Change 'we' can believe in? ... No change we can believe in? ... Change we cannot believe ... ? It gets complicated.
To go from point A to point B both points have to be first defined. Do the government want to cut demand as low as possible? Is that the 'Point B'? Or, does the government want to 'stimulate' something or other. The points are incompatible. Taxation is deflationary and high enough taxes would reduce economic activity to zero. Welcome to the Soviet Union.
What is missing @ the NY Times and the government is DC is a 'grand strategy'. Economics is an art; creating an economic policy is similar to Titian painting a picture. A Titian is required and then he has to decide what subject to paint, then decide how to paint that picture - to get from A to B. That 'How' is missing, along with the Titian and the subject. Wow! We've got a lot of problems ...
Okay, I'll pretend I'm Titian; the goal is to reduce demand and subject demand to government control, for an entire set of reasons I won't go into here. I know that raising taxes will have a strong effect on consumption and 'kill the recovery', but any recovery in consumption would be short lived under any circumstances and a waste- based consumer economy is not desireable, anyway. Using this calculus as a short- term strategy, I would raise taxes on gasoline until the cries of pain from the 'pundit nation' were deafening, then I would know that I had raised them about half- way to what they should be. Euro or Turkish retail levels would be good. Twice that would be better.
I would then inform the public that the alternative to high prices (not using the tax word) would be to ban driving altogether except for delivery, police and emergency vehicles. The important part of any strategy is to present clearly the fact that the alternative to any policy can and likely will be much worse. Without any interference at all, the market forces will prevent deliveries of fuel; in many areas there will be an effective ban on all driving, including deliveries, police and emergency vehicles. All the above need fuel.
One thing is sure about this crisis; the markets are wicked. Whatever course of market events can cause the greatest damage to the greatest number, that course of events is most likely. The current drop in fuel prices is part of that course. An economic analogy would be the current round of deflation, leading market participants to sell assets for cash, hoping to use the cash to buy cheap assets later. Our wicked market will accelerate deflation; the flight to cash will also accelerate so that investors have few assets but a lot of cash ... then the liquidity trap will break and hyperinflation will eradicate all cash value.
You can call this 'The Grand Strategy of Circumstance'. This is what we are subject to, now.
Inflation (Along with the three I's, interest, income tax, insurance) over the last 30 years has destroyed the middle class driving them down the economic ladder.
The current deflationary environment is hurting everyone driving even more of them down the economic ladder.
The eventuality of inflation, possible hyperinflation will wipe the vast majority off the economic ladder entirely. Death and destruction all over.
All of which can be traced back to the establishment of the money cartel (fed) and the income tax law.
Oh what a stupid, stupid system we have agreed to be organized under.
But then again I might win the lottery so……. Never mind.
There is every reason in the world to tax gas and hydrocarbons -- BUT -- then the money needs to be plowed right back into public transit and other ways of reducing energy consumption and giving people alternatives for getting to work.
For that matter, income taxes and estate taxes should be raised steeply on the high end at the same time eliminating them for the bottom third (or even half). There's no reason to destroy the currency. There is no legitimacy to the super high incomes -- and in at least some cases much worse than no legitimacy (as we see).
Money should be plowed directly in building a safety net for everyone in the meantime, but also retrenching: re-building small towns to be dense, walkable, connected to diversified agriculture, etc. Suburbs need to contract, densify, etc. The military adventures and ensuing waste should end.
The banks should be nationalized. Funding should be done on the basis of the retrenchment plan, looking at where we are going.
War gear up spending pulled us out of the Depression. Spending on restructuring toward sustainability and survival for everyone could end this one. BUT, it's not compatible with profits for TPTB. For that reason and that reason alone, it will not happen.
But people should be clear that suffering and starvation are not written in the cards -- they should be clear as to why some of the cards cannot be played. All of the moves so far, and most of those proposed are such as to bail out one or another of the big players, or at least not cause them any damage. The result is that the tent will come down on all of us eventually.
change ? i would be happy with a change from looting the treasury to not looting the treasury.
Ha, ha, ha, ha ...
"What is missing @ the NY Times and the government is DC is a 'grand strategy'."
Steve from Virginia states.
IMO the government had best prepare a grand strategy to deal with the crisis of total breakdown of the Merkun way of life.
Maybe do something instead of thinking about declaring Martial Law.
I was going to post this but noticed that all I can do is either Save or Preview...what has happened to my id? Or is this some new feechur of the change over on Drupal?
Airdale
Ahhh it seems that a SAVE results in or is a replacement for POST.
Did I miss an announcement somewhere on this?
It has been a tad confusing and so several posts I have attempted I instead directed to the circular file!!!
Maybe my karma is telling me to quit posting and instead devote more time to preparations. Or wood splitting. Or corn shelling. Or sharpening my axes and my two man saws.
Better yet find that forge I have been looking for of late.
Airdale