Actually, I wish you had included the choice, "I have no freaking idea". All I have is my largely gut feeling that oil just has to bottom sometime soon and head upwards, although not to a new record. But it mostly depends on what happens to the economy.

In the absence of strong carbon taxes or gas taxes or oil import taxes, I fear that what little progress has been made so far on alternatives to fossil fuels, conservation, EVs, etc. will reverse. In fact, progress has already start reversing since SUVs/Trucks are now dominant once again in sales.

Anyway, 2008 should have humbled most of us quite a bit with respect to our ability to forecast oil prices. I think it demonstrates that just because there are a lot of big brains on TOD, their brains are not near big enough to accurately assess the complexity of what constitutes an oil price.

I think the lesson should be, although it won't be, is that we should not let the market determine oil or gas prices. Relying on the market is literally suicidal, which is also, in part, the takeaway from the financial crisis.

Despite the possible disillusionment that may occur in 2009, there is still hope because at the end of the day we have a new and bright President. There was no hope in 2008 or in any of the years preceding that going back to 2001.