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22 comments on Ignoring intrayear volatility, where do you expect WTI crude oil futures to close 2009?

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Dave Cohen on January 2, 2009 - 11:41am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

For the record, I voted for between $37.50 and $50, that is, the current price range. I see that about 80% of the voters thought the price would be higher.

I have no idea what the belief in a higher price would be based on in so far as it implies (1) some kind of economic recovery stimulating world demand OR (2) OPEC's effectiveness at setting a reasonable floor price.

I give a 5%< chance for (1) and 30%< for (2). Most people calling for recovery call say it will happen in 2010. Even then, they can't come up with any good reasons for holding this opinion. They just plucked a date from the air.

For those of you who have not seen it, read The Price Is Not Right for some thoughts on the longer term oil price.

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pedrodelgado on January 4, 2009 - 1:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, I thought "no freakin' idea" was a bit of a cop out, so I went for $100 to $147.

My primary reasoning for this was that the current price is too low to sustain production at the current levels (as far as I can guess). Whether this will have had any impact by 2010 I don't know.

And my secondary reasoning was your option (1), but <5% does seem fair.

So, you're probably right and really I have no freakin' idea.

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22 comments on Ignoring intrayear volatility, where do you expect WTI crude oil futures to close 2009?

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