IMO, the following top 10 exporters are probably in long term terminal net export decline (relative to the 2005 to 2007 levels): Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, Venezuela and Mexico (probably also Kuwait & Nigeria).

But the key metric to consider is the net export rate versus the net export depletion rate (depletion marches on regardless of whether production and exports are increasing or decreasing, in fact, higher net exports cause the net export depletion rate to increase).

Our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters--accounting for about half of world net oil exports--have already shipped about one fifth of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports. One fifth gone, in a little more than a thousand days.

As of January 1, 2009, assuming a current net export rate of 20 mbpd from the top five, our middle case is that they are depleting their post-2008 net cumulative net exports at the rate of about one percent every 50 days. (About 100 GB left, shipping about one Gb every 50 days). For comparison purposes, Indonesia shipped about one percent of their post-1996 cumulative net oil exports about every 18 days from 1997 to 2000, inclusive.

IMO, the net export decline rate--which in 2009 will be a combination of voluntary + involuntary export reductions--will cause the decline in net oil exports to outpace the decline in demand in 2009, pushing oil prices back up.

Quite complicated.

1 Ignoring the economy, there is one demand at 98/b (1/1/08), less demand at 50% higher (147/b 7/08) and more demand down 50% (46/b on 1/2/09). With the economy down and employment falling, there is clearly less demand at each of the above price points than when the economy was at a higher level. US demand could be increasing already on account of lower price - too early to tell. Also, lower price is helping the economy, no doubt this helped retail sales, down a little y/y this xmas season but not as bad as some feared.

2. Saudi is well aware that their own increased output had a lot to do with the price crash, higher supplies coming just as demand was falling on account of high price and a slowing economy. (this increase surprised many at tod, including me, that were expecting permanent declines from the kingdom.)

3. Reducing the supply, as opec is doing, will raise price and further reduce demand. Saudi supposedly wants 75/b... there are growing reports that other members will meet the latest reduced targets. IMO opec is back in the saddle for now, and that price will rebound as time progresses and the cuts take hold. I see now as the ideal time to invest in small us e&p's.