As are those of us who have followed your 'simple little model' and get it's implications. Without ELM it's just the bathtub draining w/o noticing the growing elephant standing in the tub drinking his fill. I showed the chart of Indonesia net exports to our two young professional offspring this holiday for a nice family oh shiite moment BTW.

A room full of unhappy elephants can't be wrong. It's the primary reason why I don't see demand related oil price falling much from here. With much lower price the potential for conflict will be much higher and put a floor down IMHO. Low cost producers HAVE to cut, or create tension to bring their production/price in line with the high marginal supply destruction cuts coming from the OECD. Who wants to produce their remaining net barrels for cheap printed script while gold to oil is so far out of whack and their own budget deficits grow?

A new non-bank trillion dollar stimulus (one nation only) that may actually make it's way down to the consumers (who will spend) will buy a ton of gasoline at $1.65 a gallon and these two factors provide the juice to ensure increased economic activity. And ,hey, newly reinfused GMAC will get you into a low interest two for one deal on a shiny new guzzler with a Cobalt on the side. Plenty of fuel tanks around the world to soak up the remaining 100 Gb net export barrels at 1% per 50 days.

Thanks for helping us keep it in perspective WT and a pleasant new year to you.
(It ain't gonna be dull)
I went for $75 to $100 for end 2009 but wouldn't be surprized if it went higher.