 | Ukraine-Russia gas spat: some background and context | The Oil Drum: Europe | The Permanent Oil Crisis Conference in Amsterdam, January 21 & 22, 2009 |  |
52 comments on Is Europe Running Low on Natural Gas?
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52 comments on Is Europe Running Low on Natural Gas?
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It doesn't look good. Regardless of Jerome a P's views on Russian gas I think the trustworthiness of that source must now be under a cloud. I recall the excitement of the gas fired communal CHP experiments in the UK (Woking?) which now seem premature. Apart from lower Africa the Southern Hemisphere seems to have a lot of probable deepwater gas and coal seam methane, some of which will go into LNG. North Asian customers will take the lot however.
I haven't yet read through this long pdf
http://www.sgc.se/Rapporter/Resources/seminar_screen.pdf
on biomass gasification and methanation as a source of bio-syngas. It is potentially much more abundant than methane from fermentation but both could be injected into the gas network, as could hydrocarbon gases made with nuclear heat. It could be a lot cheaper in the end to learn to use less gas period. Passive heating, microwave cooking and semi-organic farming for starters.
In the UK something like 11 out of 16 million houses with cavity walls are uninsulated. Assuming an average saving of 6000kwh gas per property insulated there is 6bcm of efficiency savings from one initiative(minus a little in reverence of Jevons). A lot of work for unemployed construction workers aswell.
Not certain what the state of play is with loft insulation. I bet the average is less than 150mm.
Nick2W
Lots of numbers on this in the appendix of this 2008 report from the Building Research Establishment on Fuel Poverty prepared for the Committee on Climate Change:
http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/The%20effect%20of%20the%20CCC's%20proposed%20carbon%20budgets%20on%20fuel%20poverty%20(BRE).pdf
The Committee have been prepared to use a 'high high' future gas price of 90p/therm.
Should they have used an even higher one?
BobE
Bob - my view on energy price evolution has been dented by events of 2008. Energy bills will rise to consume an ever greater share of our disposable incomes, but this rise will likely be slow and steady.
It would be interesting to know what an average price of 90p / therm would mean for gas and electricity bills. This likely means a winter peak spot price approaching 200 p / therm (wild guess) since much of our gas is still supplied on contract at low rates.
At some point, individuals will choose to share accommodation - 2 people sharing a 2 bedroom flat - shock horror - and this will almost halve utility energy expenditure for those doing so - maybe they even share a car - and before you know it they get married and have kids and the emerging solution becomes part of a new problem.
Euan,
Indeed. I have thirty years of gas and electricity bills for my flat, and two can live for the same energy as one (but the gas/electricity mix seems to change).
I think some of the lavish 'aspirational' home design has to be binned. The Motorola Home of the Future 1962 looks a pig to heat, the TV is too small and I hate to think what would happen if you fell out of bed. I hope they didn't build any.
http://www.plan59.com/decor/decor073.htm
BobE
If you don't like the Motorola House you can choose from among these models.
http://www.n55.dk/NEWS/AUG_News.html
Hi Bob
Given where the British 'Peso' is heading relative to the Euro I suspect so given that more and more of our gas will have to be paid for with hard currency in the coming years.
Nick
Well, I'm only optimistic about Russia's ability and willingness to honor the contracts it has entered into, not anything more (and gas importers seem to agree, given their eagerness to lock in such long term contracts.
One major potential source of upside is energy efficiency improvements inside Russia, in particular in its power sector, which is the biggest user of gas right now, and is woefully inefficient. The optimistic version sees Russia switch to better gas-burning technology, thereby releasing gas for export; a slightly more scary scenario (from other perspectives like climate change) is a major switch of power generation to coal, with a similar release of gas for export.