 | Ukraine-Russia gas spat: some background and context | The Oil Drum: Europe | The Permanent Oil Crisis Conference in Amsterdam, January 21 & 22, 2009 |  |
52 comments on Is Europe Running Low on Natural Gas?
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52 comments on Is Europe Running Low on Natural Gas?
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Euan,
For such a detailed post you conclusion;
"With governments intent on pursuing market regulation of the energy sector we must wait for prices to get so high that this kills demand (the elderly freezing to death) and inflation kills our debt laden economy."
seems a bit gloomy. We have historical examples of gas shortages in the past being handled by rationing, conservation, substitution without large numbers of elderly freezing to death. Inflation seems to be the lesser evil right now.
Neil maybe you're right. But it is a fact that by allowing high price to kill demand it is the poorest and most vulnerable who switch off the heat and who can least afford to insulate. I think you might also find that the elderly did freeze to death in the past - just not well reported. We have an aged population living increasingly alone in poor quality houses.
Both posts were written in 2007 and inflation just killed our debt laden economy. Agreed that deflation is now in charge for a while - but with Gordie and Allie throwing money at the economy like pixie dust I still expect full blooded inflation to win the day. if it doesn't then we are witnessing the end of capitalism as we know it.
I live in Hungary, and here we are encountering a situation just like that. In this year up until now 51 people are reported to fall victim to the hard winter because they were unable to pay their heating bills.
http://nol.hu/lap/mo/lap-20090103-20090103_2-13 (This is a Hungarian article which was published in the biggest Hungarian newspaper.) The victims the article dealt in details were 73, 66, 63 and 48 years old.
Sad, but no surprise. The glowing television screen in the squalid apartment adds a nice Orwellian touch.
Hello Neil,
"We have historical examples of gas shortages in the past being handled by rationing, conservation, substitution without large numbers of elderly freezing to death."
Can you give some examples of that? UK govt policy is currently to let everyone use as much gas as they want, then if demand looks like outstripping supply, cutting off gas supplies to industry, which would cut gas usage by bit less than 10%, and probably eliminate a substantial sector of our industry dependent on natural gas (apparently about 300,000 jobs in total).
Rationing is exactly what the govt's policy is, as described above, but if we, the UK, get into the situation where we are cutting off gas supplies to industry, and I suspect this is a matter of if not when, then this I would have thought will also be accompanied by high swings in gas prices, and the less well off's ability to pay for gas.
Doug