"We have historical examples of gas shortages in the past being handled by rationing, conservation, substitution without large numbers of elderly freezing to death."

I live in Hungary, and here we are encountering a situation just like that. In this year up until now 51 people are reported to fall victim to the hard winter because they were unable to pay their heating bills.
http://nol.hu/lap/mo/lap-20090103-20090103_2-13 (This is a Hungarian article which was published in the biggest Hungarian newspaper.) The victims the article dealt in details were 73, 66, 63 and 48 years old.

Sad, but no surprise. The glowing television screen in the squalid apartment adds a nice Orwellian touch.