Re: Oil market lessons

Along with his glowing praise for financial markets, the author states:

On the supply side, I distrust all the talk about "peak oil." Predictions that the world is running out of oil have a long history. They have all been spectacularly wrong, because they don't understand markets. I could write a whole article on the rosy prospects for future increases in the supply of oil, but suffice it to say here that continually improving technology, plus removal of political barriers against developing known reserves, combined with the fact much of the planet has yet to be explored for oil, and you have reasons for optimism.

Well, according to Colin Campbell, the claim that "most of the planet has yet to be explored" is incorrect. Campbell claims just the opposite. I don't know whether the author is referring to areas covered by oceans, but, geologically, the land areas and continental shelf areas which were formally land, are the most likely areas to produce. The surface areas have been extensively investigated, as has much of the undersea shelf, though there are still "above ground factors" which limit access to development of some promising sites.

E. Swanson

The definitive academic rebuttal to this sort of market worship--to Hendrickson's assertion that "the oil market has been completely rational"--would have to be Benoit Mandelbrot's The (Mis)Behavior of Markets. Mandelbrot often compares markets to the weather--turbulent, unpredictable, wild.

Katrina gave us the perfect metaphor of where the blind adherance to market theology leads us. Mandebrot published his book in 2004, well before Katrina or the market meltdown of 2007-2008. But the devastation wrecked upon those who ignore, or deny, the nature of either weather or the markets, and fail to prepare for either of them, is extreme:

Multifractals make turbulance a fundamentally new way of analyzing finance. Markets no longer appear in the entirely rational, well-behaved patterns of past financial theorists. They are seen for what they are: dyanamic, unpredictable, and sometimes dangerous systems for transferring wealth and power, systems as important for us to understand as the wind, the rain, and the flood. And floods--natural or manmade--need defenses. Machiavelli once saw fortune as a flood, and his metaphor is apt here.

I like her [Fortune] to one of these violent rivers which, when they become enraged, flood the plains, run the trees and the buildings, lift earth from this part, drop in another; each person flees before them, everyone yields to their impetus without being able to hinder them in any regard. And although they [rivers] are like this, it is not as if men, when times are quiet, could not provide for them with dikes and dams so that when they rise later, either they go by a canal or their impetus is neither so wanton nor so damaging.

From The Prince

The financiers and investors of the world are, at the moment, like mariners who heed no weather warnings. This book is such a warning.

Benoit Mandelbrot, The Mis(Behavior) of Markets

Downsouth - Is this book heavily mathematical? I've long been interested in chaos theory on a philosophical level, especially its relation to societies and economies (and I was planning to try to find out if there's such a thing yet as "Chaos and Peak Oil" or some such; maybe even take a stab at writing such an essay myself :) ).

Anyway, I don't have non-linear math, and I've heard Mandelbrot's books are mathematical to the extreme.

Quite the contrary, Russ.

There is a deliberate avoidance of the use of equations in the book so that it is easily understandable to a large readership.

Thanks. I'm going to check it out.

Have you read James Gleick's book on chaos theory?

Yup, that's the first book I read (recommended to me by my college statistics professor).

I'd recommend it to anyone as the best introduction to the subject I know of. I also find that its philosophical implications repay repeated readings, even when you're familiar with the basics.

This has been my experience as well, though I happened upon it through luck.

Yeah right!

Drowning New Orleans: Scientific American
In a harrowing prediction of what would become the future, this 2001 feature notes that a major hurricane could swamp New Orleans under 20 ...
www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=drowning-new-orleans-hurricane-prediction - 67k -